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This lesson develops the classical structural approach to pricing and hedging credit risk: Merton's (1974) contingent claims model of debt and equity claims. This model is used to make investment and risk management decisions in an over-the-counter (OTC) market for distressed bonds.

The event arbitrage module includes two simulation sessions. The first simulation focuses on analyzing and evaluating individual merger transactions, while the second simulation emphasizes managing a portfolio of individual positions and the limitations of arbitrage investing in real world capital markets. The underlying data and information are derived from actual merger transactions and have been disguised to prevent students from knowing the outcome ahead of time.

Describes a practical method for asset allocation that is more robust to estimation errors than the traditional implementation of mean-variance optimization with sample means and covariances. The Bayesian inspired Black-Litterman model is described after introducing the intuition of the Bayesian approach to inference in a univariate setting.

In May 2006, a resident of Key West, FL had to decide whether to renew his policy to insure against hurricane damage. The policy would cost $13,000 for one year, $5,000 more than what he paid in 2005. At the same time, a wealthy California resident was contemplating an opportunity to buy a "cat note" that offered a high yield, but with a chance of losing the full investment if severe hurricanes struck the coastline of the United States.

Spreadsheet to (9-201-068). Download only.

Spreadsheet to (9-201-068). Presents exhibits 1 and 2. Download only.

In January 2001, Mary Linn, vice president of finance for Ocean Carriers, a shipping company with offices in New York and Hong Kong, was evaluating a proposed lease of a ship for a three-year period, beginning in early 2003. The customer was eager to finalize the contract to meet his own commitments and offered very attractive terms. No ship in Ocean Carrier's current fleet met the customer's requirements. Mary Linn, therefore, had to decide whether Ocean Carriers should immediately commission a new capsize carrier that would be completed two years hence and could be leased to the customer.

Supplements the (A) case.

Supplements the (A) case.

Strategic Capital Management, LLC, is a hedge fund that is planning to make financial investments in Creative Computers and Ubid. Creative Computers recently sold approximately 20% of its Internet auction subsidiary, Ubid, to the public at $15 per share. Ubid's stock price closed the first day of trading at $48, giving Ubid a $439 million market capitalization. Paradoxically, the parent's stock price did not keep pace with that of its subsidiary. At the end of Ubid's first day as a public company, Creative Computers' equity value was less than the value of its stake in Ubid. The market prices implied that Creative Computers' non-Ubid assets had a value of negative $79 million. The relative prices and ownership link between Creative Computers and Ubid suggest a potential arbitrage opportunity. To evaluate how best to exploit this investment opportunity, Elena King, the manager of the hedge fund, must understand both the risks and expected returns associated with different long and short equity positions.

Spreadsheet to (9-201-046). Download only.

Ameritrade Holding Corp. is planning large marketing and technology investments to improve the company's competitive position in deep-discount brokerage by taking advantage of emerging economies of scale. In order to evaluate whether the strategy would generate sufficient future cash flows to merit the investment, Joe Ricketts, chairman and CEO of Ameritrade, needs an estimate of the project's cost of capital. There is considerable disagreement as to the correct cost of capital estimate. A research analyst pegs the cost of capital at 12%, the CFO of Ameritrade uses 15%, and some members of Ameritrade management believe that the borrowing rate of 9% is the rate by which to discount the future cash flows expected to result from the project. There is also disagreement as to the type of business that Ameritrade is in. Management insists that Ameritrade is a brokerage firm, whereas some research analysts and managers of other online brokerage firms suggest that Ameritrade is a technology/Internet firm. To obtain executable spreadsheets (courseware), please contact our customer service department at [email protected].