個案總覽

The director of Corporate Research faces the problem of setting the annual budget for the various areas of research. See also UV0530 and UV0531.

With the assistance of a temporary graduate student, the director of corporate research uses multiattribute decision analysis to find a plan with greatly improved projected performance (see UV0528). The methodology for eliciting probabilities, assessing trade-offs and risk preferences, and finding the most desirable plan is detailed. (A follow-up case, which takes place four years later, is UV0531.)

Four years after the A and B cases (UV0528 and UV0530), the annual plan has drifted greatly from that suggested by the analysis in the B case. How can the decision-analysis methodology be simplified to provide routine planning guidance?