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  • Credible Warning or False Alarm? What the US Knew on September 10th, 2001

    Well before the fateful morning of September 11, 2001, the threat posed to Americans and the United States by Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda ("The Base") network of terrorists was well documented and closely monitored. Two US agencies-the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)-each maintained units devoted to bin Laden. In 1998 and 2000, al Qaeda attacks on US targets had precipitated intensive investigations which yielded a wealth of knowledge about the terrorist operation. Those attacks also promoted increased cooperation between the FBI and CIA, which regularly exchanged personnel and information. Moreover, throughout the summer of 2001, there had been a steady drumbeat of warnings about terrorist attacks, which the US government treated with utmost seriousness. American travelers abroad, US embassies, businesses and military installations were all in a heightened state of alert. The Federal Aviation Authority issued general warnings to airlines. An FBI office reported on suspicious Middle Eastern men taking flying lessons in Phoenix; an aviation student in Minnesota was arrested. The CIA notified the FBI that two suspected al Qaeda members were in the US. This case brings together accounts of what U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies knew about al Qaeda before September 11, 2001 and raises the question of why that knowledge-tips, satellite pictures, intercepted communications, defector reports, courtroom testimony-did not thwart the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington. It frames, in particular, the challenges of synthesizing intelligence-the difficulties involved in assembling seemingly random incidents into a coherent picture and distinguishing between credible warnings and probable false alarms. It can be used as a vehicle for discussion about intelligence-gathering per se, as well as government inter-agency and inter-departmental coordination.
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  • Threat of Terrorism: Epilogue

    In December 1999, only weeks after protests at the annual meeting of the World Trade Organization sparked violent protests which rocked the city, Seattle public safety officials face a new threat. An Algerian man has been arrested trying to cross the US border from Canada-in a car whose trunk is filled with enough explosions, says the FBI, to topple a multi-story building. What's more, the arrested man, Ahmed Ressam, had held a reservation at a motel just blocks from Seattle's most famous landmark, the Space Needle, in the Seattle Center, at which thousands of city residents and tourists are scheduled to celebrate the first New Year's Eve of the 21st century. This case examines the decision-making process of Seattle officials as they consider whether the possibility of terrorism should lead them to cancel the elaborate public celebrations scheduled to coincide with the dawn of the new millennium. Pair with full case (HKS488). HKS Case Number 1648.1.
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  • Threat of Terrorism: Weighing Public Safety in Seattle

    In December 1999, only weeks after protests at the annual meeting of the World Trade Organization sparked violent protests which rocked the city, Seattle public safety officials face a new threat. An Algerian man has been arrested trying to cross the US border from Canada-in a car whose trunk is filled with enough explosions, says the FBI, to topple a multi-story building. What's more, the arrested man, Ahmed Ressam, had held a reservation at a motel just blocks from Seattle's most famous landmark, the Space Needle, in the Seattle Center, at which thousands of city residents and tourists are scheduled to celebrate the first New Year's Eve of the 21st century. This case examines the decision-making process of Seattle officials as they consider whether the possibility of terrorism should lead them to cancel the elaborate public celebrations scheduled to coincide with the dawn of the new millennium. Pair with Sequel (HKS 865). HKS Case Number 1648.0
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  • Reducing the Complaints Backlog at the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission

    The federal Equal Employment Opportunity Commission is the agency charged with investigation of non-criminal complaints of civil rights-related violations in the U.S. workplace, including racial and gender discrimination. This case describes the agency's efforts to reform its internal procedures do as to deal with a staggering backlog of complaints--nearly 100,000--and up to 19-month waits for resolution. It focuses on key strategic decisions which must set the stage for greater efficiency--particularly the issue of whether every complaint must be processed in the same manner, of whether the agency should find ways to concentrate its effort on complaints judged somehow to be more significant. HKS Case Number 1562.0
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  • Politics of a Covert Action: The US, the 'Mujahideen', and the Stinger Missile

    This case tells the inside story of one of the most controversial episodes in the history of the US intelligence services. Its focus: whether to break the time-honored rules of CIA covert actions in order to supply Afghan rebels (fighting in the 1980s to oust invading Soviet forces) with US-made, state-of-the-art Stinger missiles. The case offers an unusual glimpse into the policymaking process for intelligence decisions, especially covert actions--secret activities meant to advance US foreign policy objectives without revealing the hand of the US government. It describes a pitched internal debate among the Defense Department, CIA's Operations Directorate, CIA leadership, the Department of State, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff over the advisability of providing the Stinger anti-aircraft weapon to Afghan mujahideen. Advocates said the Stinger could help win the war. Opponents argued it made the US role transparent, which could escalate the conflict to superpower level; might increase the risk of retaliation against staging-area Pakistan; and created a threat that terrorists would get possession of the weapon. HKS Case Number 1546.0
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  • A Bureaucrat's Dilemma: Skirmish on the Front Lines of Romanian Agricultural Reform

    When a reform-minded economist joins Romania's Ministry of Agriculture, she expects to help move her nation toward market-based changes that will increase the production of food by reducing subsidies and tariffs. Instead, General Secretary Cristina Esanu, formerly with the World Bank, quickly confronts a dilemma. The terms of the release of a new round of World Bank assistance to Romania make new aid contingent on Romania's "progress" toward lower tariffs, generally considered to be protecting inefficient producers from outside competition. Esanu quickly learns that powerful political interests make further tariff reductions, in particular, very difficult to achieve. When the World Bank makes clear that it will ask that at least a symbolic five percent tariff reduction be implemented in order for Romania to receive new assistance, Esanu is asked by her superior--the Agriculture Minister--to take on a task about which she is deeply ambivalent: writing a memo to convince the World Bank that tariffs should not be reduced. The case raises questions about how a public official can, and whether she should, compromise principles and pragmatic political considerations. HKS Case Number 1507.0
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  • The Role of NGOs in Civil Society: South Africa and the Draft Bill Tempest

    The end of the apartheid government in South Africa signals myriad changes in that society -- including a basic examination of how government should regulate philanthropic and nonprofit, Nongovernmental organizations. Such groups fell into two major categories -- traditional charities, most of which were formally organized, and community-based organizations, some of them informal, which had been part of the vanguard of apartheid opposition. When the post-apartheid government drafts legislation to oversee NGOs, controversy erupts. What proponents view as necessary financial safeguards, some NGO leaders view as potential government interference. HKS Case Number 1374.0
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  • General Electric and the National Broadcasting Company: A Clash of Cultures

    On June 9, 1986, General Electric Co. acquired the Radio Corporation of America (RCA) for $6.8 billion, setting a record for the largest non-oil merger in US history. GE wanted RCA for its defense-related businesses and for its solid domestic sales of consumer goods, an area where GE was faltering. But the "jewel in the crown" was the RCA-owned television network, the National Broadcasting Company (NBC). GE was delighted with its new NBC subsidiary, which the media press had christened the "Cinderella network" for its recovery from a profound slump to become the most successful of the nation's three networks. The network's news division, however, was different. It had rarely balanced a budget and was losing at least $50 million a year. From the standpoint of GE--a company which had successfully boosted revenues by ruthlessly cutting expenses and personnel--NBC News needed simply to cut costs. This case describes the process GE underwent to make NBC a profitable venture. HKS Case Number 939.0.
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