個案總覽

Freemark Abbey must decide whether to harvest in view of the possibility of rain. Rain could damage the crop but delaying the harvest would be risky. On the other hand, rain could be beneficial and greatly increase the value of the resulting wine. This decision is further complicated by the fact that ripe Riesling grapes can be vinified in two ways, resulting in two different styles of wine. Their relative prices would depend on the uncertain preference of consumers two years later, when the wine is bottled and sold.

The owner of a professional baseball team is trying to figure out if promotions are having an effect on ticket sales, and if televising games is hurting attendance. He considers renegotiating the television contract.

Freemark Abbey must decide whether to harvest in view of the possibility of rain. Rain could damage the crop but delaying the harvest would be risky. On the other hand, rain could be beneficial and greatly increase the value of the resulting wine. This decision is further complicated by the fact that ripe Riesling grapes can be vinified in two ways, resulting in two different styles of wine. Their relative prices would depend on the uncertain preference of consumers two years later, when the wine is bottled and sold.