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Rudy Wong, Investment Advisor
With stock markets in major decline, Rudy Wong, an investment advisor for a wealth management firm had to decide how best to reassure each of his clients in upcoming meetings: by communicating logical arguments based on his portfolio management expertise and analysis, or by managing emotions and attempting to re-establish his clients' faith in the markets. He also needed to re-examine the investment strategy he had developed for each client and recommend that they either stay the course with current strategies or make changes. The case allows for a rich discussion of the role of investment advisors, the importance of asset allocation, active versus passive management, investment goal setting, the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, and application of behavioral finance issues such as biases, reliance on heuristics, and framing. -
Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Oil, or Renewable: Which Type of Power Plant Should We Build?
A utility company must replace an aging coal-fired power plant. Accordingly, management must develop an Integrated Resource Plan that carefully explores all reasonable options considering the varied interests of many stakeholders, including electricity users, regulators, environmentalists, and the community in which a new power plant will be built. State regulators require that the utility company minimize the costs to ratepayers, but costs are difficult to determine given the potential for high taxes on carbon emissions as well as volatile fuel costs during the multi-decade lifetime of the replacement. The analysis is further complicated by the differences in project risk associated with the different technologies. The senior vice-president must choose carefully, because he will be required to defend that choice to many varied and passionate stakeholders. A capital budget analysis should be conducted that takes into consideration the many uncertainties associated with this problem. -
The Great Recession, 2007-2010: Causes and Consequences
"A recession in the U.S. economy began at the end of 2007. Concerns deepened as an epic financial crisis shattered business and consumer confidence. By the fall of 2008, the United States was in the midst of the worst recession since the 1930s, and major financial institutions were on the verge of bankruptcy. The financial crisis and recession spread around the world. Many saw a risk that the global financial system might collapse, perhaps precipitating a repetition of the lengthy economic devastation of the 1930s depression. Governments reacted by creating huge stimulus packages that greatly increased national deficits and debts, and by loosening monetary policies with interest rates close to zero and huge expansions of the money supply. In their efforts to save the financial system, governments also offered bail-out packages to banks, including loans, guarantees and equity. By the fall of 2009, the crisis had stabilized, and the appearance of ""green shoots"" gave promise of recovery. By 2010, it was possible to put the financial crisis in perspective, and to raise questions about the causes and consequences. Of particular concern was whether new regulations might be needed to prevent a recurrence, and whether some of the tighter regulations should be international in scope. A related concern was whether such regulations should be applied to non-bank financial institutions as well as banks. Governments were also trying to determine how to exit the unique fiscal and monetary positions that now seemed to put their economies at risk of ongoing deficits and future inflation." -
Rudy Wong, Investment Advisor
With stock markets in major decline, Rudy Wong, an investment adviser for a wealth management firm had to decide how best to reassure each of his clients in upcoming meetings: by communicating logical arguments based on his portfolio management expertise and analysis, or by managing emotions and attempting to re-establish his clients' faith in the markets. He also needed to re-examine the investment strategy he had developed for each client and recommend that they either "stay the course" with current strategies or make changes. The case allows for a rich discussion of the role of investment advisors, the importance of asset allocation, active versus passive management, investment goal setting, the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, and application of behavioral finance issues such as biases, reliance on heuristics, and framing. -
Granite Apparel: Funding an Expansion
The chief financial officer of Granite Apparel is trying to determine which of the three fundraising options is optimal for Granite Apparel to finance a projected rapid growth strategy. The three options are an initial public offering of equity, a privately placed debt issue and a private placement of preferred shares. -
Acer Incorporated: Core Management Principles
The chief financial officer of Acer Incorporated has to decide how to manage the higher level of complexity of the company's exchange risk after their restructuring. This must be done in a way which is consistent with Acer's core principles, one of which is to find simple effective solutions to unavoidable business risks. The case addresses the technical issues of exposure measurement and hedging, the challenge of hedging expected, but not contracted, future foreign currency revenues, and IFRS hedge accounting requirements. -
Acer Incorporated: Core Management Principles - Student Spreadsheet
Excel spreadsheet for students. -
Venture Capital Firms in America: Their Caste System and Other Secrets
While American venture capital firms are coated with an aura of glamour they are also shrouded by a cloud of mystery. Just how do they operate? How do they raise their money? Why do some VC firms succeed while others do not? The authors of this article, who were given unprecedented access to key executives of prominent VC firms, answer these and other questions that will take readers inside one of the more mysterious, but critically important institutions in American business. -
Toward Golden Pond (A)
The Rong-D companies must decide whether to build a luxury senior housing development in Chengdu, China. Demographics are very encouraging for this new product type, but there are numerous cultural, market, financial and political risks that they must assess before moving forward. -
Toward Golden Pond (B)
Supplements the A case. Provides an additional dilemma for the Rong-D companies with regard to building luxury senior housing in China. -
BACIA DE CAMPOS
In August 2009, Petrobras announced a new oil discovery in carbonate reservoirs in the Bacia de Campos (Campos Basin). The discovery well was located nearly 120 km off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, at a depth of 1,000 meters. The discovery would be the object of an Assessment Plan, before exploration could begin. Learning objectives: The task is to evaluate Petrobras proposed investment in the Bacia de Campos oil field. The model must project capital expenditures, operating costs, production volumes and subsequent decline rates, revenues, income taxes, working capital all on an annual basis for a period of more than 30 years. -
ATLANTIDA
The supermarket chain "Atlantida" is considering an investment in a new delivery service for telephonic orders. The project will have a lifetime of 5 years. Learning objectives: The objective of the case is the project analysis, construction of cash flow maps, NPV, and capital budgeting in general. -
Why Forecasts Fail. What to Do Instead
This is an MIT Sloan Management Review article. In 2006 the world economy was booming, partly on the back of triple-A investment innovations. Then, suddenly, the boom ended. What fascinates the authors is the fact that almost no one saw the 2008 economic crisis coming. In this article, the authors come to terms with the reality that, in economics and business, accurate forecasts aren't possible. Therefore, they say, managers need to develop a different attitude about the future. The key is not to develop precise plans based on predictions but to have emergency plans for a variety of possibilities. The main thing is to stop believing your predictions about the future and to develop plans that are sensitive to surprises, whether they are future credit crunches or other unexpected events. The authors acknowledge that forecasters have produced excellent work over the years -both practical and academic. But forecasting models are not set up to cope with what they call the "big hairy coconuts"-the unexpected occurrences that are a fact of life in the real world of business. To compensate, they propose what they call "the three A's": Accept, assess and augment. First, managers have to accept that they're operating in an uncertain world; second, they need to assess their level of uncertainty; and third, they need to augment the range of uncertainty to compensate for risk. -
The Investment Fund for Foundations (TIFF) in 2009
In late June 2009, management at The Investment Fund for Foundations (TIFF) was considering expanding the footprint of the TIFF Diversified Fund (TDF), the first truly comprehensive endowment management vehicle offered under the TIFF banner. The recent large capital losses suffered by most endowments, including those of Harvard and Yale, had motivated some to question the two basic premises of the endowment investment model-that investors get rewarded for bearing illiquidity, and that a diversified blend of asset classes and strategies provides meaningful protection against capital losses under virtually all market conditions. Despite this questioning, the investment professionals at TIFF were convinced that this model remained viable as a means of generating superior long-term returns, and that TDF was a vehicle that provided TIFF's current and potential clients access to this model. But they were aware that they would need to increase their efforts to educate their clients on the benefits of this comprehensive approach to investing, and also to reflect on whether to modify the current structure of TDF, particularly regarding its liquidity provisions. -
Lyondell Chemical Company
Hit with an industry recession and the global financial crisis of 2008, in January 2009 LyondellBasell Industries AF S.C.A., one of the world's largest internationally diversified chemical companies and headquartered in The Netherlands, placed its U.S. operations and a German subsidiary under U.S. Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. To successfully reorganize as a going concern, the company sought to raise over $8 billion in a super-priority "Debtor-in-Possession (DIP)" loan from a group of thirteen financial institutions, including commercial banks, investment banks, hedge funds, and private equity funds. Representing one of the largest DIP loans in history, this financing was considered critical to the company's survival. One unique and controversial feature of the financing was a $3.25 billion 'Roll-Up" facility, under which a number of Lyondell's pre-bankruptcy lenders were allowed to significantly elevate the priority of debts they were already owed (so that they ranked ahead of all other pre-bankruptcy debts owed by the company), provided the lenders advanced new loans to the company to help finance its restructuring. With a costly liquidation as the alternative, various creditor groups objected to the DIP financing package, putting Lyondell's reorganization, and survival as a going concern, at significant risk. -
Netflix, Inc., 2007
The protagonist in this case is an analyst attempting to value Netflix, Inc., and check whether her recent buy recommendation at a price of $20.00 per share was still valid. Recent bad news had caused the price to drop and she needed to do her best to figure out what was the future for Netflix, and was it undervalued at $17 per share? Intended for MBA students, this case contains her discounted cash flow valuation and a set of assumptions (revenues per customer, retention rates, etc.) students can use to perform a valuation of the existing Netflix customer base as another approach toward judging the $17 stock price. There are two student spreadsheets available for this case (UV4342 and UV4343). -
Valuation of Netflix, Inc.
Intended for MBAs, this case concerns the valuation of Netflix, Inc., which was the largest U.S. online movie rental subscription service in early 2009. After reviewing Netflix's historical financial and customer relationship performance, this case presents three approaches for valuing the firm in early 2009. The first is a company-level discounted cash flow analysis based on pro forma projections of revenues, earnings, and cash flow. The second approach attempts to judge whether the prevailing market value of Netflix was reasonable by comparing selected company ratios with those of comparable companies. The final approach is based on the assumption that Netflix's enterprise value (EV) was the sum of its current and future subscribers' values (discounted present values, to be exact). There is also a spreadsheet available for students (UV5597). -
Capital Structure and Value
This note presents a series of questions that leads students through the essential logic linking capital structure and firm value. It begins with a nontax benchmark, then proceeds through valuations with tax deductibility based on (1) a discount rate with tax effects built in (discount free cash flow at the WACC), (2) the valuation of specific claims (value equity cash flows and debt cash flows separately), and (3) the valuation of types of cash flow (value assets and interest tax shields separately). The note concludes by linking these concepts to stock price effects around recapitalizations. Financial risk (leverage effects on CAPM betas) is also introduced and illustrated. -
Rosetta Stone: Pricing the 2009 IPO
This case examines the April 2009 decision of Rosetta Stone management to price the initial public offering of Rosetta Stone stock during one of the most difficult periods in capital-raising history. The case outlines Rosetta Stone's unique language learning strategy and the associated strong financial performance. Students are invited to value the stock and take a position on whether the current $15 to $17 per share filing range is appropriate. The case is designed to showcase corporate valuation using discounted cash flow and peer-company market multiples. The epilogue details the 40% first-day rise in Rosetta Stone stock from the $18 offer price. With such a backdrop, students are exposed to one of the well-known finance anomalies-the IPO underpricing phenomenon-and are invited to critically discuss various proposed explanations. -
Housing Investment
Housing investment, a highly cyclical subcomponent of GDP, is a significant source of its fluctuations. Recent events in the housing market have been central to the meltdown of financial markets and the deep recession that began in late 2007. This note provides some background on the so-called housing bubble and, in doing so, highlights some of the primary sources of volatility in housing investment and real estate markets.