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Executives are beginning to look to the future after spending a full year in crisis mode. As they reengage in strategic thinking, they will need to continually assess the changing economic landscape - and they can effectively do that by keeping a close watch on the underlying forces outlined in this article. The authors, from McKinsey & Company, discuss the current trajectories of 10 particularly important trends: strains on natural resources, a damper on globalization, the loss of trust in business, the growing role of government, investment in quantitative decision tools, shifting patterns of global consumption, the economic rise of Asia, industry structure upheaval, technological innovation, and price instability. Companies' strategic behavior should be tied closely to these trajectories. For instance, given recent reversals in what had seemed to be an unstoppable trend - globalization - managers should reassess their business models under different future scenarios. Would they fare as well in a more protectionist world as they would in one with free and fair movement of goods, capital, and talent? Or would certain production locations no longer make sense, certain overseas business units lose value, or certain core activities be harder to perform? Meanwhile, as the U.S. ceases to be the engine of global consumption, businesses should increasingly set their sights on China and India, where consumer spending is growing faster. In mature markets, they should refocus their offerings on the remaining sweet spot of demand: consumers over age 50.

Traditional metrics don't capture many of the challenges and opportunities in store for U.S. companies and the national economy. The authors, from Deloitte, present a framework for understanding the forces that have transformed business over the past 40 years - and an index for gauging their impact on performance.

As ports, highways, railways, and airports run out of room, the world faces a looming transportation crisis. The current meltdown masks the threat, but once the recovery begins, a lack of infrastructure capacity, combined with rising oil prices, will constrain growth. Congestion and delays will eat away business profits, forcing companies to rethink their long, complex supply chains. Smart organizations will use unorthodox methods to cut often-hidden transportation costs and outmaneuver rivals.

The emerging markets have cooled off lately, but they're still growing, even as the rest of the world shrinks. That's one reason why developing countries - and the companies based there - will become more formidable players in the future. A second is that companies on the frontiers saw the downturn coming from developed countries and revised their strategies. They're innovating and improving operations aggressively, while their governments implement policies that will change the game of business. Multinationals need to recognize that and prepare for several tectonic shifts: Developing economies will become less dependent on developed ones, evolve a different model of business leadership, set off countertrends in M&A, and demand unprecedented levels of environmental sustainability. And Africa is poised to become the next hot spot of growth.

This is an MIT Sloan Management Review article. Companies are aware of the potential benefits of "open innovation"-relying on outsiders both as a source of ideas and as a means to commercialize them -but they have struggled with precisely how to open up their product development to the external world. For starters, many executives have little idea how to motivate and manage outside innovation. Specifically, should external innovators be organized as a collaborative community or as a competitive market? Collaborative communities are perhaps best known through Linux and other open-source software efforts that are governed loosely by social norms and "soft" rules to encourage open access to information, transparency, joint development and the sharing of intellectual property. Competitive markets are strikingly different. Rather than collaborating, external innovators in a market will develop multiple competing varieties of complementary goods, components or services. Customers then choose from among the different offerings, and this often results in fierce competition -and little cooperation -among the innovators. Because the dynamics of communities and markets are so dramatically different, companies need to consider carefully which approach makes the best sense for their objectives. From their research, the authors have identified three critical issues that managers should take into account when making that decision: 1) the type of innovation that will be shifted to external innovators, 2) the motivations of those individuals, and 3) the nature of the platform business model. An in-depth analysis of those issues reveals that the choice between communities and markets is not as obvious -nor as clear-cut -as it might first appear.

Manufacturers in emerging markets are getting fewer orders from multinationals - which are shocked by many suppliers' bankruptcy. Both groups must evaluate potential partners more rigorously.

As free trade agreements become more popular, they present global executives with thorny strategic and operational decisions.

The head of Georgia Tech's architecture program predicts that new kinds of retail developments will rise from the ashes of today's dying suburban malls.

Although the federal gasoline tax played multiple roles in financing surface transportation infrastructure in the United States, experts did not agree on the tax's purpose. Some argued that it was essentially a fee for users of the nation's federally supported highways. Others suggested that it should play a more prominent role in environmental, energy, and transportation policy by correcting for driving-related externalities. Still others suggested that it should be used to reduce the federal budget deficit. Finally, the tax itself had remained at the same level since 1993, and with the Highway Trust Fund virtually insolvent, many experts believed it was time for an increase. The case presents a background on the U.S. federal gasoline tax, an overview of the market for gasoline in the United States, and survey of gasoline taxes in U.S. states as well as several other countries around the world.

Taiwan-based HTC Corp. had emerged as the world's fourth largest smartphone manufacturer by 2009. CEO Peter Chou was extremely proud of the remarkable achievements his company had made over the last 12 years since starting off as an unknown manufacturer of PDAs for other companies. Yet Chou faced several decisions in order to move his company forward. Competition for high-end, sophisticated mobile devices was intensifying as HTC faced big name players such as Nokia, Apple, and Samsung Electronics. Many companies were offering their own application stores. What did HTC have to do to become a more powerful global brand? Where should HTC participate in the value chain in one of the most exciting, innovative product categories in the technology world?

Private entrepreneur, Tony Fernandez took over the debt ridden AirAsia airlines from the Malaysian government in December 2001, months after the terrorist attacks of 9/11. One month later, he relaunched the airline as South-East Asia's first low cost carrier (LCC) and achieved an instant success with increased profitability and rapid route expansion. Under the tagline of "Now Everyone Can Fly", AirAsia was able to keep the lowest cost structure among its competitors and offered low airfare to customers. Being innovative down to the corporate bone, AirAsia pioneered several new services for its operation, including an ambitious plan that many other low cost, short-haul carriers viewed as risky-extending services to include long haul routes. In 2007, AirAsia was ranked as the best LCC in the Asia region. Its success had not only inspired many LCC followers in the Asia Pacific region, but also severely threatened the well-being of full-service operators, especially its major competitor at home, Malaysia Airlines ("MAS"). In May 2008, MAS initiated an unexpected price war by launching the "Everyday Low Fare" campaign, offering zero fare for domestic and short-haul flights, which were largely dominated by AirAsia. Amid surging flight operation costs globally and ever intense competition in the Asia Pacific region, how could AirAsia increase its competitiveness?

The case describes the history and business model of Cirque du Soleil (CdS). The case allows for a rich discussion and analysis of Cirque du Soleil's business model with an emphasis on how it interacts with that of MGM Mirage. Le Cirque and MGM's business models complement one another: MGM makes important capital investments in theaters tailored to CdS's shows that are located in the middle of MGM casinos, CdS acts as a magnet for traffic for an exclusive clientele that spends large amounts of money at the casino. CdS's partnership with MGM has been tremendously profitable. This raises the question of why hold up and opportunism have not destroyed competitive advantage for both entities: What features in CdS and MGM Mirage's business models have resulted in such a successful partnership? The case is set at a juncture where Daniel Lamarre (CdS's CEO) is looking for new opportunities for growth. Lamarre is pondering the likelihood of success of Cirque's first resident show in Asia at Tokyo Disney Resort, its entry in the Macao market, and a new partnership with two subsidiaries of Dubai World, the sovereign wealth fund of the Emirate. The question is: Can Le Cirque find a new model of complementary relationships that will be as profitable as its relationship with MGM Mirage?

On May 16, 2007, India-based Hindalco Industries, a subsidiary of AV Birla Group of companies acquired the US-Canadian aluminum giant Novelis. The acquisition was the result of an agreement arrived at between Hindalco and Novelis on February 10, 2007. Hindalco was to buy Novelis for US $6 billion in cash, making it the second biggest acquisition by an Indian company till then. The acquisition resulted in formation of a Fortune 500 company -- the world's largest producer of aluminum -- and expected to be the industry cost leader with a presence over the entire aluminum value chain from mining to final aluminum products. The case provides a general introduction to the aluminum industry including different products, players, and processes. Also there is indirect analysis of the industry and a mentioning of the critical success factors for the industry. The case covers the growth strategies of Hindalco and Novelis and briefly covers their competition as well. It also talks in detail about the various synergies of the deal and ends with the description of the situation post-deal, with Novelis turning black owing to a variety of reasons.

Global industry restructuring is driving a dramatic increase in cross-border acquisitions, and some countries - notably the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada - are selling a lot more than buying. To remain competitive, they should take action on three levels.

The case describes the Indian business environment and the enormous opportunities and challenges presented by rural markets as they expand rapidly. It focuses on the innovative business model deployed by ITC to engage the rural population in multiple ways and create a platform for procuring commodities and providing a range of goods and services to the bottom of the pyramid in rural India. It gives students the opportunity to evaluate the future of ITC's rural business.

Although Google had a stellar performance in Web search, many of its other services, such as Google Video, were less successful. This case describes how YouTube came to dominate the video market for user-generated content (UGC), while Google Video tried various entry strategies and ultimately failed, ending with the acquisition of YouTube. It also reviews the various competitors in the UGC market, chronicles the entry of established and new players in the area of professionally generated content (PGC), and outlines the key challenges related to monetizing the acquisition of YouTube for Google.

This case describes the history and activities of the A-Team, a major alliance of bicycle assembly firms and parts suppliers in Taiwan, which was created in 2003. A strategic alliance with competitors posed challenges. For the A-Team, it was more complicated because the alliance was between both competing bicycle assembly firms and between parts suppliers. By 2006, progress had been made in making the alliance work but the senior executives were wondering what they could do to ensure future progress. The case can be used in a strategy module or course on alliances/joint ventures in a section examining the competition versus cooperation challenge.

This case is appropriate for strategy courses and courses that focus on competitive dynamics. It follows FedEx from when it was the only international express-freight-delivery company with direct flights into such key Chinese cities as Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen and a virtual monopoly over South China's international express delivery market up to the competitive events that had taken some of the shine off FedEx operations in China. Leadership in the fast-growing, highly competitive Chinese express delivery market was key to FedEx's international strategy. Some of the issues students must decide are what these agreements and joint ventures could mean to FedEx's business in China and how it should respond to the increasingly crowded market.

The case analyzes a successful economic initiative (Red Shield), whose profits help support a legendary religious institution (The Salvation Army) while creating social value for low-income sectors through the sale of used goods. The main focus of the case is on its growth strategy, since Red Shield must increase its financial support of the Salvation Army. In late 2007, the protagonist of the case took over as Director of the Red Shield and was expected to suggest alternatives to boost revenues in order to provide for the organization's sustainability in Argentina. The new Director faces the dilemma over what to do and he contemplates different growth options taking into account the opportunities presented by the context. The final decision remains open and students are invited to evaluate diverse strategic alternatives proposed by the Director of the Red Shield. This case may prove adequate for undergraduate, graduate, and MBA strategy and marketing courses.

Global Health Partner was founded in 2006 as a privately owned health care provider in Sweden serving both public and private paying patients. In contrast to most providers in the country, GHP organized around specific service lines where it saw the potential to provide the most value. This case details the GHP approach to both Spine Care and Obesity Care demonstrating the power of specialization for quality improvement as a basis for competitive advantage. Students will examine the organization of integrated multidisciplinary care, the impact of volume on learning and efficiency , and the importance of demonstrating quality through outcomes reporting. The case also provides a window into the Swedish Health Care System.