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Reyem Affiar is interested in buying a condominium in Cambridge, Mass. Can data on previous condominium sales inform him on how to bid for the condo? The case includes 1990--1994 data on Cambridge condominium sales (nearly 500 records).

Increases in orange tree production led to an orange juice surplus. How does one manage price risk in the orange juice industry under these conditions?

This is an MIT Sloan Management Review article. Supplements Part 1.

Discusses what causation is and what one can (and cannot) learn about causation from observational (nonexperimental) data.

Presents a business game that allows participants to make 12 scheduling decisions under conditions of demand uncertainty. Played with groups of 3 to 5 participants, this game does not require a computer.

Risk, complexity, and uncertainty currently define the business environment of the 1990s. In this interview, Merck CFO Judy Lewent talks about her scientific approach to finance, one that is both long term in nature and eminently tied to Merck's overall strategy. At 44 years of age, Lewent ranks among the most powerful women in corporate America and is the only woman to hold the title of CFO at a major corporation.

Edgar Scherick, a leading television movie producer, must determine whether fact-based movies garner higher Nielsen ratings than fictional movies. Scherick has data for all 1992 TV movies broadcast on major networks. Ultimately, Scherick must decide whether it is worthwhile to pay for the option for the rights to fact-based movies.

Colonial Broadcasting, a major American television network, must determine whether fact-based television movies garner higher Nielsen ratings than movies based on fictional concepts. Furthermore, the network must decide whether to accept a fixed-fee advertising contract or a sliding-scale contract.

Coolidge (CKC), a chemical manufacturer, is being sued for patent infringement. Plaintiffs are the patent holder and its sole licensee, who is also a CKC competitor. An analyst at CKC has done breakeven decision analysis from CKC's perspective, balancing going to court with settling out of court, but no analysis has been done for the plaintiffs.

Provides an example of regression in one of its most important roles. Relating probabilistic forecasts based on past data to decision analysis.

Under increasing pressure to make better decisions in less time, managers often use the quickest and easiest decision-making method: going on "gut feel." But recent decision research shows that intuition is much less reliable than most people believe. Managers need to use more sophisticated methods. This article describes a series of increasingly accurate (and demanding) decision-making approaches. It starts with purely intuitive choices, which are quickest and least accurate, and then examines heuristic shortcuts and rules of thumb. It then discusses more demanding and reliable methods, such as bootstrapping and value analysis. It examines the strengths and weaknesses of each approach in terms of speed, accuracy, and justifiability, with illustrative applications to managerial practice. Finally, the authors offer practical advice for managers on how the more sophisticated techniques can be incorporated into the organization.

Flanders is a catalog merchandiser. Various decisions on catalog distribution policy, ordering and inventory policy, and catalog format design are considered. This was a final examination, and serves as a review for a number of topics in the course.

Describes decision analysis, a systemic approach for analyzing decision problems. A running example illustrates problem structuring (decision trees), probability assessment and endpoint evaluation, folding back the tree as a method of analysis, and sensitivity analysis.

Allied, Benevolent, and Caring Services are three nonprofit social service providers competing for state social service funding. The state funding agency has decided to increase its annual budget but will provide additional funds only to a consortium of two or more providers. Each provider must decide whether to cooperate with the other providers in order to pursue state funds, and if so, how these funds should be divided among the cooperating providers.

Five-party, four-issue internal negotiation among employees of a major engine manufacturer to agree on procurement guidelines in preparation for external negotiations with suppliers. Eagle Aircraft Engines, a manufacturer of engines for military and commercial aircraft, is preparing to negotiate a major five-year procurement for over 1000 parts from its suppliers. Its Airfoils and Casting Division (A&C) is responsible for purchasing roughly 100 of these parts. In preparation for the negotiations with suppliers, the five key personnel within A&C need to generate a "Business-Managed Procurement" policy in which A&C personnel must unanimously agree on four schedule and quality programs. The key personnel involved in the internal negotiation include three engineers, a buyer, and a financial analyst. They have all been sent a memo from the Purchasing Director outlining the overall procurement strategy. The Purchasing Director is putting pressure on them for consensus, emphasizing the importance of certain issues over others in preparation for his/her own negotiations with suppliers.

Five-party, four-issue internal negotiation among employees of a major engine manufacturer to agree on procurement guidelines in preparation for external negotiations with suppliers. Eagle Aircraft Engines, a manufacturer of engines for military and commercial aircraft, is preparing to negotiate a major five-year procurement for over 1000 parts from its suppliers. Its Airfoils and Casting Division (A&C) is responsible for purchasing roughly 100 of these parts. In preparation for the negotiations with suppliers, the five key personnel within A&C need to generate a "Business-Managed Procurement" policy in which A&C personnel must unanimously agree on four schedule and quality programs. The key personnel involved in the internal negotiation include three engineers, a buyer, and a financial analyst. They have all been sent a memo from the Purchasing Director outlining the overall procurement strategy. The Purchasing Director is putting pressure on them for consensus, emphasizing the importance of certain issues over others in preparation for his/her own negotiations with suppliers.

Five-party, four-issue internal negotiation among employees of a major engine manufacturer to agree on procurement guidelines in preparation for external negotiations with suppliers. Eagle Aircraft Engines, a manufacturer of engines for military and commercial aircraft, is preparing to negotiate a major five-year procurement for over 1000 parts from its suppliers. Its Airfoils and Casting Division (A&C) is responsible for purchasing roughly 100 of these parts. In preparation for the negotiations with suppliers, the five key personnel within A&C need to generate a "Business-Managed Procurement" policy in which A&C personnel must unanimously agree on four schedule and quality programs. The key personnel involved in the internal negotiation include three engineers, a buyer, and a financial analyst. They have all been sent a memo from the Purchasing Director outlining the overall procurement strategy. The Purchasing Director is putting pressure on them for consensus, emphasizing the importance of certain issues over others in preparation for his/her own negotiations with suppliers.

Five-party, four-issue internal negotiation among employees of a major engine manufacturer to agree on procurement guidelines in preparation for external negotiations with suppliers. Eagle Aircraft Engines, a manufacturer of engines for military and commercial aircraft, is preparing to negotiate a major five-year procurement for over 1000 parts from its suppliers. Its Airfoils and Casting Division (A&C) is responsible for purchasing roughly 100 of these parts. In preparation for the negotiations with suppliers, the five key personnel within A&C need to generate a "Business-Managed Procurement" policy in which A&C personnel must unanimously agree on four schedule and quality programs. The key personnel involved in the internal negotiation include three engineers, a buyer, and a financial analyst. They have all been sent a memo from the Purchasing Director outlining the overall procurement strategy. The Purchasing Director is putting pressure on them for consensus, emphasizing the importance of certain issues over others in preparation for his/her own negotiations with suppliers.

Five-party, four-issue internal negotiation among employees of a major engine manufacturer to agree on procurement guidelines in preparation for external negotiations with suppliers. Eagle Aircraft Engines, a manufacturer of engines for military and commercial aircraft, is preparing to negotiate a major five-year procurement for over 1000 parts from its suppliers. Its Airfoils and Casting Division (A&C) is responsible for purchasing roughly 100 of these parts. In preparation for the negotiations with suppliers, the five key personnel within A&C need to generate a "Business-Managed Procurement" policy in which A&C personnel must unanimously agree on four schedule and quality programs. The key personnel involved in the internal negotiation include three engineers, a buyer, and a financial analyst. They have all been sent a memo from the Purchasing Director outlining the overall procurement strategy. The Purchasing Director is putting pressure on them for consensus, emphasizing the importance of certain issues over others in preparation for his/her own negotiations with suppliers.

Five-party, four-issue internal negotiation among employees of a major engine manufacturer to agree on procurement guidelines in preparation for external negotiations with suppliers. Eagle Aircraft Engines, a manufacturer of engines for military and commercial aircraft, is preparing to negotiate a major five-year procurement for over 1000 parts from its suppliers. Its Airfoils and Casting Division (A&C) is responsible for purchasing roughly 100 of these parts. In preparation for the negotiations with suppliers, the five key personnel within A&C need to generate a "Business-Managed Procurement" policy in which A&C personnel must unanimously agree on four schedule and quality programs. The key personnel involved in the internal negotiation include three engineers, a buyer, and a financial analyst. They have all been sent a memo from the Purchasing Director outlining the overall procurement strategy. The Purchasing Director is putting pressure on them for consensus, emphasizing the importance of certain issues over others in preparation for his/her own negotiations with suppliers.