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This case provides a brief update on Facebook's acquisition of WhatsApp.

Individuals' judgement of probabilities-the likelihood of different events to occur, or the attribution of likely causes to what has occurred-is plagued by numerous biases and errors. This note focuses on Bayesian updating and the base rate neglect, and also provides a brief overview of other biases, including overconfidence, reversion to the mean, the law of small numbers, the conjunction fallacy, confirming evidence bias, hindsight bias, and the conjunction fallacy. Numerous examples illustrate the implications of the biases for managerial decisions.

In this simulation exercise, four family members must negotiate over the future of the family business. Should the business be sold to a strategic buyer, or should the family retain control? If the business is sold, how should the proceeds of the sale be distributed among family members? If the business is not sold, how should ongoing ownership and control be shared among family members? The exercise, which is inspired by a collection of real-world scenarios, provides an opportunity to practice techniques for learning about the motivations of others and for forging agreements that balance the interests of multiple parties. Special thanks to Boris Tsimerinov (PLDA16, 2017) of Semper8 Capital for his contributions to this exercise.

In this simulation exercise, four family members must negotiate over the future of the family business. Should the business be sold to a strategic buyer, or should the family retain control? If the business is sold, how should the proceeds of the sale be distributed among family members? If the business is not sold, how should ongoing ownership and control be shared among family members? The exercise, which is inspired by a collection of real-world scenarios, provides an opportunity to practice techniques for learning about the motivations of others and for forging agreements that balance the interests of multiple parties. Special thanks to Boris Tsimerinov (PLDA16, 2017) of Semper8 Capital for his contributions to this exercise.

In this simulation exercise, four family members must negotiate over the future of the family business. Should the business be sold to a strategic buyer, or should the family retain control? If the business is sold, how should the proceeds of the sale be distributed among family members? If the business is not sold, how should ongoing ownership and control be shared among family members? The exercise, which is inspired by a collection of real-world scenarios, provides an opportunity to practice techniques for learning about the motivations of others and for forging agreements that balance the interests of multiple parties. Special thanks to Boris Tsimerinov (PLDA16, 2017) of Semper8 Capital for his contributions to this exercise.

In this simulation exercise, four family members must negotiate over the future of the family business. Should the business be sold to a strategic buyer, or should the family retain control? If the business is sold, how should the proceeds of the sale be distributed among family members? If the business is not sold, how should ongoing ownership and control be shared among family members? The exercise, which is inspired by a collection of real-world scenarios, provides an opportunity to practice techniques for learning about the motivations of others and for forging agreements that balance the interests of multiple parties. Special thanks to Boris Tsimerinov (PLDA16, 2017) of Semper8 Capital for his contributions to this exercise.

The Harvest City case describes the implementation of a cloud- and IoT-based intelligent procurement system at a new convention complex in the U.S. Midwest. The decision to build a convention complex is a strategic initiative for this city and involves extensive use of information technology. The risk of implementation failure is high. Such failures are costly, highly visible, and affect multiple stakeholders. This case explores the challenges of large-scale, computer-based system implementation by examining the events, decisions, and actions taken to implement the intelligent procurement system at Harvest City. This case helps students to reflect on and discuss the challenges of implementing IT-enabled change initiatives, especially those that requires streamlined and integrated inter-organizational processes. The case discussion gives students insight into what factors influence the success and failure of IT projects.

Since being founded in 2006, Patanjali Ayurved Ltd. had emerged as a major player in India's fast-moving consumer goods sector. The company differentiated its products with a unique mix of Indian nationalism, yoga spiritualism, social welfare motives, and natural/Ayurvedic ingredients. In combination with low prices and a low-cost position, this strategy challenged the incumbent multinational and conventional Indian competitors. As a result, competitors, including Hindustan Unilever Ltd., Colgate-Palmolive India, Dabur India Ltd., and Sri Sri Ayurveda, had to decide how to respond to this new competitor and capitalize on the growth opportunities in the Indian market.

In February 2018, Amazon.com Inc. (Amazon) was tackling what seemed to be the most challenging problem in grocery retailing-how to efficiently and effectively deliver groceries to customers-known generally as the last-mile challenge. Seattle-based Amazon, which had 22 years of experience delivering goods such as books, apparel, and electronics sold on its website, had already proven that it could efficiently deliver general merchandise to customers. Yet, groceries presented a unique challenge because they were perishable and customers paid more attention to getting them in a timely fashion. After all, it was food that was being carried to the consumer's home. Amazon's efforts to solve the last mile challenge for grocery delivery had not thus far been successful. In November 2017, it shut down its AmazonFresh delivery service in five states but claimed this was unrelated to its purchase of Whole Foods Market Inc. Could Amazon successfully overcome the challenge of last-mile grocery delivery? If so, what were the implications for Amazon and other retailers?

In 2016, ALDI Stores (Aldi) in Australia posted its first downturn in annual growth since it opened in 2001. The German discount grocery store had been on a steady climb towards a top position among competitors such as Coles Supermarkets Australia Pty. Ltd., and Woolworths Limited. Amazon Inc. and Lidl Stiftung & co. KG, another German competitor, had begun to take steps towards entering the Australian market. What can Aldi do to ensure its continued success and retain its market share?

In 2017, Peter Tang must prepare the economic analysis of a proposal to insource production of certain parts currently purchased by the Tower and Lattice (TAL) division of Akron Crane Works (ACW), a world leader in heavy lifting machinery. The primary motivations for the proposal were rising costs due to vendor price increases and long vendor lead times. The TAL division believed internal production would cost less and that, with increased control of production, the division could reduce lead times and even reduce working capital needs.

Student spreadsheet for case UV7448.

Spreadsheet supplement for case 218004.

In 2012, Strategic Global Capital ("SGC") was founded by Bryan Kuhn, his wife Cathy and his mother Dorothy as a secondary debt market for micro finance notes. Using the founders' money, SGC launched a pilot program in Ecuador that proved their concept worked. Leveraging on their success, Bryan and his family wanted to further expand the business. In order to grow SGC with the most optimal capital structure Bryan and his family would need to consider all the existing financial conditions and potential risks. What would be the best overall capital structure in terms of the proportion and type(s) of debt and equity that should be utilized by the company? How (or should) the company raise equity based capital? How (or should) the company raise debt based capital?

Hawk Electronics ("Hawk") presents the problems that a company can encounter when its divisions have distinct strategies, especially when one division has been favored at another's expense. It also highlights how such problems can reflect cognitive biases, which influence resource allocation decisions by senior executives. Further, the case challenges students to develop an action plan for Hawk's CEO. The case begins with excerpts from a letter that Jorge Martinez, the president of Hawk's Peripheral Division and a member of Hawk's Board of Directors, has written to Sarah Chan, Hawk's CEO. Martinez is concerned about the resources that Chan has funneled away from his division to fund outside ventures. Martinez feels that this pattern of resource allocation, and the consequences ensuing from it, make his division unable to compete. He also believes Chan's decisions threaten Hawk's long-term viability. Chan needs to respond to the issues raised in Martinez's letter, but she believes her decisions have been largely correct.

Private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice (CD&R) is preparing a bid for leading US car rental agency Hertz. By replacing Hertz's top managers, improving capital management and driving down operating costs, CD&R sees an opportunity to nearly double EBITDA. However, the turnaround involves significant risks, which CD&R must weigh in preparing its bidding stategy. Students are required to assess and value the business, evaluate a post-acquisition operating turnaround plan requiring new leadership, select a financial structure to mitigate significant cyclicality, and craft a winning bidding strategy in the context of a competitive auction. Please visit the dedicated case website "https://cases.insead.edu/turnaround-of-hertz/" to access supplementary material.

Cargo's mission is to help "rideshare drivers earn more money by providing complimentary and premium products to passengers." Cargo sources goods from suppliers to provide a platform for gig economy drivers to run small convenience stores out of their vehicles. Drivers earn additional income, and riders enjoy convenient and affordable access to products during their rides. As the company grew, Cargo faced a number of supply-chain-related challenges including determining the product mix in the Cargo box, replenishment of the product, and the cost of carrying inventory. In particular, would the replenishment decision be driven by the company or the driver and who would bear the responsibility for the inventory cost? The founders also considered how to most efficiently manage its suppliers: Would a centralized or decentralized model best serve Cargo and its drivers? And, how might supply chain contracts with its suppliers help support the company's profitable growth?

Student spreadsheet for case CU215.