In early January 2019, a recent Ivey Business School graduate logged into her online trading account to review her portfolio’s performance. As she scanned her investments, she paused at one stock in particular. It was time to make a decision regarding one of her most volatile stocks—Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc., recently renamed Bausch Health Companies Inc. The pharmaceutical company was once celebrated for its innovative business approach. However, both its stock price and reputation as one of Canada’s most valuable companies had plummeted in recent years, after accusations of price gouging and investigations for fraud by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Overburdened with significant amounts of debt from a spree of acquisitions, the company was also scrutinized by investors and regulators for using non-GAAP accounting metrics for its financial statements. The recent graduate wondered if she should hold out hope that the stock would return to its historic highs, or if she should cut her losses and divest the stock.
In late 2016, an analyst at Oliver Wyman (OW), was contemplating the high stakes of her new project. European riverboat company Temarca Group (Temarca) had just approached Duke Royalty (Duke) seeking €9.0 million to expand its riverboat fleet at the time. The analyst had to consider the first potential investment for the newly-formed partnership. If a financing decision was made, Temarca would be one of the first investments in Duke’s portfolio. The analyst had to ensure this investment was aligned with Duke’s investment mandate, met the financial criteria, and delivered the targeted returns essential to please keystone investors. Similarly, she knew this deal would be highly scrutinized by the OW partners because Temarca would be OW’s first fully-financed deal with Duke. With all this in mind, the analyst's task was to make a preliminary recommendation to the chief executive officer of Duke and a founding partner of OW about the soundness of the opportunity. She had to decide whether Duke should invest in Temarca or pass on this opportunity.