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Practical Regression: Noise, Heteroskedasticity, and Grouped Data
This is the sixth in a series of lecture notes which, if tied together into a textbook, might be entitled "Practical Regression." The purpose of the notes is to supplement the theoretical content of most statistics texts with practical advice based on nearly three decades of experience of the author, combined with over one hundred years of experience of colleagues who have offered guidance. As the title "Practical Regression" suggests, these notes are a guide to performing regression in practice. This note begins by describing the problems that arise when variables are measured with noise. The note progresses to explain how to test for and correct heteroskedasticity. It also explains why it is necessary to adjust standard errors when working with grouped data. -
Practical Regression: Log vs. Linear Specification
This is the seventh in a series of lecture notes which, if tied together into a textbook, might be entitled "Practical Regression." The purpose of the notes is to supplement the theoretical content of most statistics texts with practical advice based on nearly three decades of experience of the author, combined with over one hundred years of experience of colleagues who have offered guidance. As the title "Practical Regression" suggests, these notes are a guide to performing regression in practice. This note explains how to choose between log and linear specification. The note emphasizes the economic interpretation of a log model and how to interpret coefficients in a log regression. The note concludes by explaining how to choose between log and linear specifications on econometric grounds, including an explanation of the Box-Cox test. -
James and Laura
James and Laura Wiggins had some decisions to make. Last year, James’s father had died of a stroke. Death was not instantaneous, however, and the man had lingered in hospital for several weeks in a coma. During this time, no one had been able to access James’s father’s bank accounts (which were registered in the father’s name only). This inability to access the accounts had caused James’s mother considerable economic hardship, which impressed upon James the value of a power of attorney (POA). To that end, James asked his lawyer to prepare a power of attorney for him and Laura. James wanted Laura to sign the documents that night.<br><br>Before signing, Laura had some reservations and a few questions she wanted James to answer. She didn’t understand how a POA worked. Was it the same as a will? She and James didn’t have a will. Would the POA satisfy both needs? -
The Paris Opera Hotel
Real estate investor Javier Faus invests in a luxury hotel development in central Paris, and must select a management company. -
Practical Regression: Causality and Instrumental Variables
This is the tenth in a series of lecture notes which, if tied together into a textbook, might be entitled "Practical Regression." The purpose of the notes is to supplement the theoretical content of most statistics texts with practical advice based on nearly three decades of experience of the author, combined with over one hundred years of experience of colleagues who have offered guidance. As the title "Practical Regression" suggests, these notes are a guide to performing regression in practice. This note uses the theory of "supplier-induced demand" from health economics to illustrate key issues including reverse causality, the role of instrumental variables in establishing causality, and the characteristics of good instruments. -
Practical Regression: From "Stylized Facts" to Benchmarking
This is the eleventh in a series of lecture notes which, if tied together into a textbook, might be entitled "Practical Regression." The purpose of the notes is to supplement the theoretical content of most statistics texts with practical advice based on nearly three decades of experience of the author, combined with over one hundred years of experience of colleagues who have offered guidance. As the title "Practical Regression" suggests, these notes are a guide to performing regression in practice. Using an extended example on hospital lengths of stay, the note explains how to "deconstruct" a regression in order to parse out how each variable contributes to the overall result. Regression is viewed as an exercise in "benchmarking"-explaining why some observations in the data "outperform" or "underperform" others. The residual is viewed as a potential measure of managerial effectiveness, albeit one that must be treated with caution. The note provides step-by-step instructions for using regression for benchmarking. -
Predicting a Firm's FInancial Distress: The Merrill Lynch Co. Statement of Cash Flows
During the night of September 14, 2008, a few hours before Lehman Brothers folded, Merrill Lynch declared defeat: it was acquired by Bank of America (BofA). Unsure of its ability to continue as a stand-alone entity, Merrill Lynch deliberately ended 90 years of independence. Before its buyout by BofA, Merrill Lynch was the world's largest and most widely recognized stockbroker. It dominated retail stockbroking with its army of 16,000 brokers around the world. At the start of 2008, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were the five largest stand-alone investment banks, with a combined total history of 549 years: within the span of six months, they would all be gone. Some observers wondered whether any early signs of the financial distress that the investment firm experienced in 2008 could be seen in the financial statements published in the years preceding the acquisition of this giant. In addition, was there value in evaluating the performance of the company from an angle other than that of operating results, which is typically used by financial analysts? Specifically would there be value in an assessment of the company's performance by scrutinizing the origin and use of its liquid assets for the years 2005, 2006 and 2007. Such an investigation has required focus on the statements of cash flows, including the need to: evaluate the cash situation at year-end;analyze cash flows provided (used) by operating activities;analyze cash flows provided (used) by investment activities;and, analyze cash flows provided (used) by financing activities. -
H-Soft (B-1): Siddharth Kapoor
Siddharth Kapoor, the Founder and CEO of H-Soft Mumbai, reflected on his meetings as he walked out of VC Ventures' offices in Mumbai. After a few months of intensely pitching his startup to several different investors, he finally had a term sheet in hand. Despite this huge milestone, Kapoor knew it was only the start of a long process of raising money. He only had three days to get back to Sharma and indicate whether he would like to initiate the diligence process. While he was familiar with some of the terms venture capital investors put into their contracts, many others were completely alien to him. Which terms were important? Which ones should he focus on negotiating? He also knew that money was only part of what the venture capital investors brought to the table. Was VC Ventures the right partner for his business? Kapoor knew he had a busy few days ahead of him as he thought through all of these questions before getting back to Vikram Sharma. -
H-Soft (B-2): Vikram Sharma
Siddharth Kapoor, the Founder and CEO of H-Soft Mumbai, reflected on his meetings as he walked out of VC Ventures' offices in Mumbai. After a few months of intensely pitching his startup to several different investors, he finally had a term sheet in hand. Despite this huge milestone, Kapoor knew it was only the start of a long process of raising money. He only had three days to get back to Sharma and indicate whether he would like to initiate the diligence process. While he was familiar with some of the terms venture capital investors put into their contracts, many others were completely alien to him. Which terms were important? Which ones should he focus on negotiating? He also knew that money was only part of what the venture capital investors brought to the table. Was VC Ventures the right partner for his business? Kapoor knew he had a busy few days ahead of him as he thought through all of these questions before getting back to Vikram Sharma. -
General Growth Properties and Pershing Square Capital Management
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Predicting a Firm's Financial Distress: The Merrill Lynch Co. Statement of Cash Flows
During the night of September 14, 2008, a few hours before Lehman Brothers folded, Merrill Lynch declared defeat: it was acquired by Bank of America (BofA). Unsure of its ability to continue as a standalone entity, Merrill Lynch ended 90 years of independence. Before its buyout by BofA, Merrill Lynch was the world’s largest and most widely recognized stockbroker. It dominated retail stockbroking with its army of 16,000 brokers around the world. At the start of 2008, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Bear Stearns were the five largest standalone investment banks, with a combined total history of 549 years. But within a span of six months, they would all be gone as independent investment banks. Some observers wondered whether any early signs of the financial distress that the investment firm industry experienced in 2008 could be seen in the financial statements published in the years preceding the acquisition of Merrill Lynch. In addition, was there merit in evaluating the performance of the company from an angle other than that of operating results, which is typically used by financial analysts? Specifically, would there be value in an assessment of the company’s performance by scrutinizing the origin and use of its liquid assets for the years 2005, 2006, and 2007? Such an investigation would require focus on the statements of cash flows, including the need to: <ul><li>Evaluate the cash situation at year-end.</li><li>Analyze cash flows provided (used) by operating activities.</li><li>Analyze cash flows provided (used) by investment activities.</li><li>Analyze cash flows provided (used) by financing activities.</li></ul> -
Smith & Wesson: A Big Shot at Security?
An investment analyst at River Capital, LLC, an East Coast hedge fund, is researching Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (S&W) as a potential investment opportunity. The analyst had become interested in S&W when the company announced the acquisition of Universal Safety Response, Inc. (USR). The USR deal represented a significant investment for S&W and therefore created an opportunity for the company to become either undervalued or overvalued by the market. -
Public-Private Partnerships: The Project Financing of the Indiana Toll Road
A consortium made up of Macquarie Infrastructure Group (MIG) and Cintra Concessiones de Infraestructuras de Transporte wins the concession for the Indiana Toll Road at a bid price of US$3.8 billion in January 2006. Market observers think the amount is too high, but MIG is confident the asset is worth the price. -
Public-Private Partnerships: The Project Financing of the Indiana Toll Road
Spreadsheet Supplement for INS190 -
Aquasure: Project Finance - Victorian Desalination Plant
Aquasure - a consortium formed by Macquarie, Degremont and Thiess - won the concession to finance, build, maintain and operate the A$5.72 billion Victorian Desalination plant under a public-private partnership initiative known as Partnerships Victoria. Financing took place during the period of the global financial crisis and there was a subsequent political backlash. -
Smith & Wesson: A Big Shot at Security? Spreadsheet
Spreadsheet for case UV6454 -
H-Soft Mumbai
Siddharth Kapoor, the Founder and CEO of H-Soft Mumbai reflected on his meeting as he walked out of VC Ventures' offices in Mumbai. After a few months of intensely pitching his startup to several different investors, he finally had a term sheet in hand. Despite this huge milestone, Kapoor knew it was only the start of a long process of raising money. He only had three days to get back to Vikram Sharma and indicate whether he would like to initiate the diligence process. While he was familiar with some of the terms venture capital investors put into their contracts, many others were completely alien to him. Which terms were important? Which ones should he focus on negotiating? He also knew that money was only part of what the venture capital firm brought to the table. Was VC Ventures the right partner for his business? Kapoor knew he had a busy few days ahead of him as he thought through all of the questions before getting back to Sharma. -
Factor Investing: The Reference Portfolio and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Student Spreadsheet (1)
As Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) CEO David Denison and SVP and Chief Investment Strategist Don Raymond embarked upon a review of CPPIB's investment strategy, they reflected on the changes that had been made in recent years. The Reference Portfolio played an integral role in allowing CPPIB to look through the labels of asset classes and to holistically consider each asset in terms of its underlying factors. In this case, which draws upon interviews with both Denison and Raymond, students will learn about the history of CPPIB, the genesis of the Reference Portfolio, and how the Reference Portfolio operates to guide CPPIB's high performing investment strategy. -
Factor Investing: The Reference Portfolio and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Student Spreadsheet (2)
As Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) CEO David Denison and SVP and Chief Investment Strategist Don Raymond embarked upon a review of CPPIB's investment strategy, they reflected on the changes that had been made in recent years. The Reference Portfolio played an integral role in allowing CPPIB to look through the labels of asset classes and to holistically consider each asset in terms of its underlying factors. In this case, which draws upon interviews with both Denison and Raymond, students will learn about the history of CPPIB, the genesis of the Reference Portfolio, and how the Reference Portfolio operates to guide CPPIB's high performing investment strategy. -
Factor Investing: The Reference Portfolio and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
As Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) CEO David Denison and SVP and Chief Investment Strategist Don Raymond embarked upon a review of CPPIB's investment strategy, they reflected on the changes that had been made in recent years. The Reference Portfolio played an integral role in allowing CPPIB to look through the labels of asset classes and to holistically consider each asset in terms of its underlying factors. In this case, which draws upon interviews with both Denison and Raymond, students will learn about the history of CPPIB, the genesis of the Reference Portfolio, and how the Reference Portfolio operates to guide CPPIB's high performing investment strategy.