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This is the eighth in a series of lecture notes which, if tied together into a textbook, might be entitled "Practical Regression." The purpose of the notes is to supplement the theoretical content of most statistics texts with practical advice based on nearly three decades of experience of the author, combined with over one hundred years of experience of colleagues who have offered guidance. As the title "Practical Regression" suggests, these notes are a guide to performing regression in practice.This technical note discusses maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The note explains the concept of goodness of fit and why MLE is a powerful alternative to R-squared. The note follows a simple example that develops the intuition of MLE as well as the computation of the likelihood score and the algorithm used to estimate coefficients in MLE models.

Spreadsheet Supplement for case UV2560.

Spreadsheet Supplement for case UV2563.

This case and its companion (UVA-F-1102) provide comprehensive coverage of a firm's decision to undertake an initial public offering (IPO). The company is a nonregulated financial firm in a rapidly growing area of consumer finance (high credit-risk automobile loans). The A case follows the firm from its first meeting with investment bankers to the determination of a preliminary IPO price range. In the B case, the firm's "road show" encounters a "cold-issue" market, and Eagle is unable to sell its shares at a price near the preliminary file range. Management is confronted with the tough choice of whether to proceed with the IPO or cancel it. The cases provide a rich opportunity to compare management's internal valuation of the firm (derived from market multiples and discounted cash-flow analysis) with the market's assessment of value. Excel spreadsheet files are available for use with this case (UVA-S-F-1095) and its teaching note.

This case is about an ambitious “technopreneur” with ideas that were at the forefront of technology, such as in enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. Compassion Web had been successful initially, then swamped with challenges, and the original business model needed major changes in order to work in the fast-changing environment. At the same time, the company was facing a lawsuit with a major client, which could threaten its survival. To make matters even worse, the company lacked the strong and unified leadership necessary to pull it out of its difficulties.

In November 2011, the State Fair of Virginia, Inc. (SFVA), which had been operating since 1854, was facing a dire financial situation. SFVA was a privately held, not-for-profit organization that operated the state fair independent of the state government, and received no operating support from state or local governments. In 2003, the organization had borrowed $83 million against a $47 million investment portfolio in order to develop its new fairgrounds, which opened in 2009. The new site had been attractive because it included The Meadow Farm, a horse farm famous for being the birthplace of the Secretariat, winner of the 1973 Triple Crown. The unprecedented collapse of the financial markets in the United States in 2008, combined with a poor economy and terrible weather for the fair’s first two years, resulted in a situation where in late 2011 the organization did not bring in enough income and donations to cover the loan payments. Creditors were demanding an immediate solution. The board of directors of SFVA realized that it had no choice but to consider strategic options including applying for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which would give it time to try to restructure its debt, or shutting down immediately.

In August 2010, SKS Microfinance became India’s (and South Asia’s) first publicly traded microfinance institution with a stock exchange listing. A share in the company was offered at INR 985 and it commenced trading at INR 1,036, reaching INR 1,404 within a month. However, that was the extent of the good news as far as the company and its shareholders were concerned. Things began to unravel rapidly. The initial public offering of shares was seen as the initiation of a conflict between the interests of the company’s shareholders and the poor rural borrowers it was expected to serve. Further, the company fired an arguably successful chief executive officer due to “inter-personal issues” within days from the end of the post-listing 40-day silent period. Matters were aggravated when 30 women who happened to be microfinance borrowers committed suicide within a span of 45 days, 13 of whom were reported to have been SKS members. The provincial government in the state of Andhra Pradesh, the hub of microfinance activity in the country, brought out an ordinance that effectively curbed microfinance lending and recovery operations. By May 2011, the Reserve Bank of India, the country’s banking regulator, had issued a notification placing caps on interest rates and margins and specifying minimum tenures for relatively larger loan sizes. Was this the end of the microfinance movement in India?

The Singaporean software company Lan-Ray attempted to enter the prepaid cash card (PCC) business in China. Equity funds were sourced to acquire Protection Communications Network (PCN), a payment intermediary in Quanzhou, China, with a vast payment network that could be instrumental to the success of the PCC business. However, PCN would need to demonstrate profitability before it could obtain the licence to run the PCC business.<br><br>Together, Lan-Ray and PCN ventured into the mobile phone campus e-card business, which was initially thought to be able to help PCN achieve profitability in the short run. However, the campus e-card business did not prove to be as profitable as expected. At the same time, the acquisition of PCN by Lan-Ray was problematic, as PCN was unwilling to transfer shares to Lan-Ray. How could Lan-Ray’s CEO finish the acquisition of PCN and make the campus e-card business profitable?

In February 2011, David Blair, CEO of Catalyst Health Solutions, was considering another acquisition. Catalyst was already the fastest-growing pharmacy benefit management company in the United States, and Blair had his eye on a subsidiary of Walgreen Co., the second-largest retail drugstore chain in the country. Walgreen Co. was focusing its corporate strategy on the retail business and had just purchased 258 Duane Reade pharmacies in New York for over $1 billion. Walgreen Co.'s subsidiary, WHI, managed pharmacy benefits and was a relatively small part of the overall company, contributing less than 2% of its bottom line. Might Walgreen Co. be interested in selling WHI?

Spreadsheet Supplement for case UV5670.

In August 2010, SKS Microfinance (SKS) had become India's (and South Asia's) first stock-market listed and publicly traded microfinance institution (MFI). A share in the company was offered at INR 985 and it commenced trading at INR 1,036, a small premium to start with but eventually reaching INR 1,404 within a month. Unfortunately, that was the extent of the good news as far as the company and its shareholders were concerned. Things then began to unravel rapidly. The initial public offer (IPO) of shares was seen as the initiation of a conflict between the interests of the company's shareholders and the poor rural borrowers it was expected to serve. Further, the company fired an arguably successful chief executive officer due to "inter-personal issues" within days from the end of the post-listing 40-day silent period. Matters were aggravated when 30 women who happened to be microfinance borrowers ended their lives within a span of 45 days, 13 of whom were reported to have been SKS members. The provincial government in the state of Andhra Pradesh, the hub of microfinance activity in the country, brought out an ordinance effectively curbing microfinance lending and recovery operations, and, by May 2011, the Reserve Bank of India, the country's banking regulator, had issued a notification placing caps on interest rates, margins and specifying minimum tenures for relatively larger loan sizes. Was this the end of the road for the microfinance movement in India?

This is the third in a series of lecture notes which, if tied together into a textbook, might be entitled "Practical Regression." The purpose of the notes is to supplement the theoretical content of most statistics texts with practical advice based on nearly three decades of experience of the author, combined with over one hundred years of experience of colleagues who have offered guidance. As the title "Practical Regression" suggests, these notes are a guide to performing regression in practice. This technical note explains how to choose predictor variables to include in regression. The note begins by explaining the many virtues of parsimony. Sometimes analysts include predictors simply because they are in the available data. Including such "junk" predictors increases the chances of obtaining confusing or misleading results. The note also explores multicollinearity, a favorite topic in some statistics classes that is rarely a problem in real world empirical work. The note concludes by explaining how to work with groups of related variables and describes how to implement the partial F test for joint significance.

In April 2009, Perdigão was contemplating the acquisition of Sadia and a merger of the two companies. The intended share-swap transaction between two of Brazil’s biggest food companies would allow Perdigão to dramatically grow its domestic and international market share, and become one of the world’s largest players in the food production industry, while driving up profit margins by benefiting from synergies. However, Sadia had very significant short and long debt that it was unlikely to be able to service. Students must determine whether Perdigão should acquire Sadia and the basis of the proposed share exchange, and assess whether the resulting debt burden of the combined companies is manageable.

The president of Image Pipeline Services, a pipeline flushing and inspection firm, is taking a step back from the past few weeks, where he has spent virtually all his waking time working on his new business in Edmonton’s oil sands industry. A few months after starting his business, he controls virtually the entire market, but competitors will be encroaching soon. One competitor has offered to purchase his business and the president wants to weigh his options before agreeing to sell or continuing to compete.

This case presents a trading situation arising out of the acquisition of Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited, an Indian pharmaceutical firm, by Daiichi Sankyo, Inc., a Japanese pharmaceutical firm, in 2008. After buying out the Ranbaxy’s founding family’s stake in the company, Daiichi Sankyo made a partial tender offer bid for the remaining shares of Ranbaxy. The uncertainty as to whether or not the deal would go through and what the eventual acceptance rate would be resulted in a special situation investment opportunity. In the case, a risk arbitrageur needs to evaluate this potential opportunity and determine an appropriate trading strategy. Key decisions include whether to buy or sell the target stock and when to implement this purchase or sale. In this way, the case presents an unfolding situation augmented with a rich set of relevant secondary data such as news and stock prices, so that students are exposed to a real trading situation. The case requires students to understand market mechanisms and perform detailed analyses to justify their decisions.

Spreadsheet supplement for case 212091.

How companies with large net cash positions can enhance earnings/share through share repurchase in an environment of low interest rates.

This case describes the financial undertakings of Lehman Brothers Inc., which was once the fourth-largest investment bank in the world. On September 15, 2008, less than a year after the bank presented its largest profit ever, the world watched its decline. In terms of size of assets, Lehman is considered the largest bankruptcy in history, with assets totaling US$639 billion and liabilities of US$613 billion. The U.S. credit crisis had uprooted the strength of Wall Street, with Lehman announcing a petition it filed under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The bankruptcy raised some interesting questions, the biggest among them being: How could a large company such as Lehman, with a record of reporting huge profits, become so helpless that it had to file for bankruptcy?<br><br><br><br>Undoubtedly, the financial scenario in the United States had become dire, especially for those companies involved in mortgage banking. Lehman had some additional drawbacks. This case deals with a couple of these problems, one of them being the accountancy of its Repo 105 transactions. The modus operandi of the company has been unveiled to show how it managed to hide its true financial state through gaps in the financial reporting system and remain clean-handed for years.