個案總覽

This note traces the evolution and broadening of Goldratt's thinking from his OPT finite-scheduling software to his theory of constraints. The note discusses the bottleneck thinking that Goldratt presented in his novel, The Goal, and his book, The Race.

The consumer-products division of a multinational company is facing a decision on the sourcing of product components: whether to stay in Taiwan or switch to Mexico. See also the supplement to this case, "Cost Analysis for Sourcing Alternatives for Emerson Electric Company ACP Division" (OM-0823).

The plant manager of the Edgcomb Metals facility at Troy, Virginia is confronted with complaints that the current driver wage system-a guaranteed eight-hour day with time and a half for overtime-rewards drivers who "take their time" on daily assigned delivery routes. To investigate these claims, the plant manager compiles data on total hours, number of miles, and number of stops for several delivery runs made by each of two drivers-one recognized as the best and most conscientious, and the other recognized as the slowest. A supplemental handout (OM-0576) contains the results of a regression analysis of the data to facilitate a comparison of the two drivers and to suggest a method for developing standard times. (The B case is OM-0562, and the C case is OM-0571.)

Supplement for UV3331

The manager of a large downtown hotel has to decide whether to accept 60 additional reservations or not. If she accepts, she will be overbooked and face certain costs if all the people holding reservations show up. The manager must forecast, based on historical data, how many of the people holding reservations will show up and then decide, after taking into account the cost involved, whether to take the additional bookings. The case can be used in a class on seasonality and exponential smoothing in time-series forecasting.

The president of a well-established manufacturer of mattresses has asked his assistant to recommend whether to consolidate plants of three different locations. He must decide not only which criteria are most useful in making such a decision, but also how to weigh the different criteria in coming up with a single decision.

In this case, the managers of quality assurance must specify a fill-target for individual bottles of a new blood-pressure medicine. Higher targets lead to higher material costs but fewer seconds.

Thomas Stearns must decide whether to continue with planned software development and risk missing the completion deadline on a $20 million project or bite the bullet and make some costly hardware changes that will virtually eliminate the risk of missing the deadline. This introductory decision analysis case: (1) contains a compound (square-circle-square) decision, (2) encourages a discussion of the meaning of probability, and (3) requires the use of sensitivity analysis to handle the unspecified costs of missing the deadline.

With the assistance of a temporary graduate student, the director of corporate research uses multiattribute decision analysis to find a plan with greatly improved projected performance (see UV0528). The methodology for eliciting probabilities, assessing trade-offs and risk preferences, and finding the most desirable plan is detailed. (A follow-up case, which takes place four years later, is UV0531.)

Four years after the A and B cases (UV0528 and UV0530), the annual plan has drifted greatly from that suggested by the analysis in the B case. How can the decision-analysis methodology be simplified to provide routine planning guidance?

This case describes the situation faced by the general manager of the A's at the end of the 1980 baseball season. The A's star pitcher, in negotiating his contract, claims that attendance was noticeably higher at games in which he was the starting pitcher. Game-by-game data for the 1980 season on home attendance and ten variables affecting attendance are given. The case is suited for use near the end of a module on regression. It can be used to (1) review the t-test for a difference in means and relate the difference to regression with a dummy variable, (2) illustrate the importance of a model-building framework, even if used to evaluate someone else's models, (3) illustrate the use of dummy variables, and (4) point out the difference between conditional and marginal inference. The supplement, QA-0313, contains the results of several regression analyses of the A's 1980 home-attendance data and may be used with the A case to facilitate analysis of the situation. (The B case is UV3698.)

The general manager of the Oakland A's professional baseball team must evaluate two salary-and-bonus plans proposed by the A's star pitcher (see UV3696). The plans call for the pitcher to receive a bonus if the next season's home attendance exceeds a specified amount. Historical data are provided on team performance (number of games won), attendance, and the general manager's preseason forecasted number of wins.

Supplement for UV6120

Describes the history and management of a startup plant that manufactures guided missile canisters for the U.S. Navy. The plant is rare in that management is minimized; most of the work is done by self-directed work teams. The decision maker is the Green River, Wyoming, FMC plant manager, who is trying to assess whether the unusual management approach at Aberdeen would suit his facility, which is larger, older, in a different industry, and unionized. Includes data on the Aberdeen plant's history, philosophy, recruiting methods, evaluation procedure, reward mechanism, career development, and information systems.

Many companies have embraced the Just-In-Time manufacturing method because of the zeal with which its successes were reported. But JIT is a simple idea, and therefore often complicated to implement. In its pure form, JIT emphasizes low cost, high quality, and the consolidation of the product line--a smaller number of products and fewer options. It does not mean recklessly slashing inventories without having inventory buffers in place.

Chronicles three decades of a forklift truck company's industrial design strategy. Having grown rapidly from a small, pioneering niche-company to a leading, full-range, global producer, Crown is reevaluating its design services strategy. Discusses the company's long-term relationship with its design consultants and the pros and cons of establishing an in-house design department at this point in its history. Students need to decide whether Crown should opt for in-house design services, stay with its former design consultants, or look for new consultants.

Discusses the new, in-house design department at Crown and brings the story up to 1991.

A large, open pit, iron ore mine is plagued with crusher delays. The case describes the situation, provides relevant capacities and costs, and gives statistical data on the frequency and duration of crusher stoppages. The manager has to choose between holding trucks idle during crusher delays, reassigning the truck-shovel teams to waste removal, or to dump ore at an ore stockpile.

A student about to complete his MBA is considering purchasing a franchise in The Body Shop Canada chain of specialty stores. He has discussed the opportunities with company officials and drawn up pro forma financial statements. He now has to evaluate the opportunity and his fit with the organization. Despite the financial projections, would he be happy as a franchisee and would The Body Shop Canada be happy with him? Unlike many franchising cases, this case asks the student to take the role of the potential franchisee rather than that of the franchisor.

A process engineer for General Motors Truck Assembly Plant in Oshawa was considering the introduction of new technology onto the main assembly line. He believed that an overhead hoist could be used to eliminate one job in a four-person group. The case leads into a discussion on the criteria used in evaluating proposals for new technology as well as the impact of these changes on the employees.