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Anthony Ng, the general manager of Kowloon Development Co. Ltd., has been approached by a real-estate agent proposing a new development project for possible investment by Kowloon Development. Although the project is attractive, there are a number of associated uncertainties that complicate Ng's decision about whether or not to recommend investment. He has only a few days to review the proposal and make a decision before the next board meeting.

The plant manager at Birmingham Megatron's manufacturing operation was looking to modify an existing production unit in order to expand output for an additional contract. This new contract was still at the bidding stage, and cost accounting had proposed a bid of $64.00/block for the required 1,400 blocks/week. She wondered if she could afford to offer a more competitive price in order to win this contract.

The executive director of the Canadian Medical Hall of Fame and the outreach coordinator for the Faculty of Science at the University of Western Ontario had to allocate conference spaces for about 300 students to a series of sessions highlighting and demonstrating various research actives. Space limitations meant that not all students could attend the same topics, so the task was to allocate students to the sessions in an attempt to satisfy the majority of requests. This mathematical programming exercise allows use of a relatively simple formulation to initially solve the problem, followed by attempts to include some elements of subjective fairness in the final assignment of conference slots. (A Microsoft Excel model is available for use with this case, product 7A99E018.)

In the late 1990s, a pharmaceutical house is considering introducing a throat lozenge on the market and is undecided about whether to conduct a test market and whether to order manufacturing equipment now or later. Probability assessments are given, permitting the use of a decision tree. Also possible are considerations of the value of information. (A Microsoft Excel model is available for use with this case, product 7A99E016.)

A management scientist was asked by the president of a gas production company to develop a model for allocating the gas supplied to the Petro Pipe Lines Corporation gas plant among the various suppliers, according to the terms of the gas supply contracts. The intent of the model was to minimize the penalties imposed at the end of each month on the gas suppliers as a result of daily differences between production (supply) and nomination (demand) for each contract. (A Microsoft Excel data file is available for use with this case, product 7A98E038.)

The manager of port facilities for Superior Grain Elevator, Inc. in Thunder Bay, Ontario, must decide whether to construct a third wharf at a cost of $1.5 million. Superior Grain Elevator, Inc. has just negotiated a grain sale to Poland that will increase the number of shipments from the Thunder Bay facility. (A Microsoft Excel model is available for use with this case, product 7A98E040.)

In the late 1990s, the chief executive officer of Brent-Harbridge Developments had just received confirmation of several upcoming property auctions. Brent-Harbridge Developments was currently asset short after some successful recent disposals, which made the CEO keenly interested in three of the properties being auctioned. She needed to prepare a bidding strategy in order to try to acquire at least one or perhaps more of the development properties being auctioned. (A Microsoft Excel data file is available for use with this case, product 7A98E042.)

Management at PCB Manufacturing, Inc. was concerned that a significant number of faulty printed circuit boards were reaching their customers. Should the testing system be changed so that the number of bad boards being shipped decreases? (A Microsoft Excel model is available for use with this case, product 7A98E043.)

The CEO of Northern Napa Valley Winery must forecast aggregate sales of red table wine for the product year, as well as month-by-month sales for the same period. This case provides the student with the opportunity to try to forecast a time series characterized by distinct trend and seasonality with almost nine years of monthly data available. (A Microsoft Excel data file is available for use with this case, product 7A98E046.)

The comptroller at Four Star Fitness Club must set aside a financial reserve to cover possible refunds of initiation fees to new members. The comptroller has some historical data on refund payments to assist in estimating the size of the appropriate reserve.

Harry Lev was reviewing the recent sales reports for Bamberger's Department Store in an effort to assess whether or not the newly implemented Wednesday evening late openings had had a positive overall effect on sales. He was under some pressure to demonstrate that the sales during the extended hours were more than covering the added cost to the store of the late opening, since he had been instrumental in initiating this change despite strong employee resistance. If he could not clearly show a financial benefit, he could expect pressure to discontinue the experiment. (A Microsoft Excel data file is available for use with this case, product 7A99E006.)

Exotic Adventures Inc. operates expedition-style voyages in various locations around the globe, including the Amazon River basin. In early 1998, Exotic Adventures began marketing a low-water season voyage up the Amazon to take place in October. By August, 99 passengers had booked passage with Exotic Adventures. However, in early September the company began receiving messages from their agents in Brazil advising that water levels were unusually low. The company must decide whether to cancel the voyage now (and refund payments received) or to continue it with the risk of subsequent higher costs.

This note presents an overview of the process of collecting or sampling data from the appropriate population, presenting statistical measures to describe the data and to allow inferences to be drawn from the data, and then clearly presenting the results obtained.

This note describes various statistical sampling techniques and the inherent biases associated with each technique. Sample size, sampling bias, and sampling with an agenda are among the issues discussed.

This note presents numerous examples of deception by selectively using statistical measures. For example: implying credibility by providing accuracy to two decimal places; using the wrong base value when presenting per cent data; using small base levels when deriving percentage data; choosing an unrepresentative base period; and, presenting graphs that deceive.

The airline industry has already made competitive use of the technology that enables it to change prices daily or even hourly. But this technology now exists for everyone. Are we soon to see the price of blue jeans change by the hour? Those who wait to see what the competition does before they themselves react, may never be able to catch up.

The president of Firestone Canada must decide whether or not to go ahead with the marketing program Pay No Dough If It Doesn't Snow. This program, proposed by the Manager of Advertising and Dealer Relations, offers purchasers of Firestone Snow-Biter tires a refund based on the amount of snowfall during the winter. (A Microsoft Excel data file is available for use with this case, product 7A84E002.)

The director of the internal medicine department has to decide whether to recommend that St. Swithin's Hospital acquire equipment to aid in the diagnosis of Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT). St. Swithin's already has Doppler testing and Venography available to try to diagnose DVT, but these tests are not 100% accurate. New data on the performance of the equipment suggests that this may be a useful alternative. Treating patients on the basis of clinical evidence only, that is, without using any diagnostic test, is also an option but the treatment, and some of the tests, place patients at a risk.

A journalist with the Financial Post, had been given information that a collection of paintings recently donated to the nation had been valued well above market value. Disputing the appraisal would raise objections from many influential people, but the journalist felt a responsibility to attempt a systematic appraisal of the collection. Data on the art in the collection (all by the Canadian painter James W. Morrice) as well as comprehensive data on auction sales of Morrice's work were collected by Mathias. (A Microsoft Excel data file is available for use with this case, product 7A92E006. The case can be used with Morrice Collection (B), case 9A92E007.)

A journalist with The Financial Post, has written an article suggesting that a collection of paintings recently donated to the nation had been valued well above market value. He felt a responsibility to attempt a systematic appraisal of the collection. Data on the art in the collection (all by the Canadian painter James W. Morrice) as well as comprehensive data on auction sales of Morrice's work were collected. The journalist has used simple means and moving averages to arrive at appraised values for the collection which are little more than half the original appraisal. Has he missed something or are his methods too simplistic? (This case is a sequel to Morrice Collection (A), case 9A92E006. A Microsoft Excel data file is available with these cases, product 7A92E006.)