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A Model for Decision-Making Risk
Employees are faced each day with important decisions that they need to make, which force them to evaluate potential benefits and risks and act accordingly. Organizations depend on the successful decisions that business leaders make. Unfortunately, business students do not spend as much time as they should studying decision-making risk and how to evaluate it. Recent organizational failures, such as the collapse of Enron and Lehman Brothers, exhibit a fundamental lack of understanding.<br><br>Decision-making risk (DMR) is, quite simply, the risk associated with making a decision. With each decision, there are risk variables that interact with one another to create an overall risk profile. It is this interaction that is arguably under-observed in business schools. Furthermore, it is contended that a lack of focus on this interaction often leads to poor decision-making.<br><br>In this note, we use the Bear Stearns collapse and the Maple Leaf Foods listeria outbreak as timely examples of miscalculated decision-making risk. After examining these cases, it is quite clear that the associated risks in both were quite high. This raises a number of questions. Why didn’t the decision-makers at the time realize the risks that their organizations were facing? How can business leaders learn from these failures to ensure similar mistakes are not made in the future? In particular, this note was written to answer the question: Is there a comprehensive framework that can be used to assess decision-making risk? -
Practical Regression: Building Your Model: What Variables to Include
This is the third in a series of lecture notes which, if tied together into a textbook, might be entitled "Practical Regression." The purpose of the notes is to supplement the theoretical content of most statistics texts with practical advice based on nearly three decades of experience of the author, combined with over one hundred years of experience of colleagues who have offered guidance. As the title "Practical Regression" suggests, these notes are a guide to performing regression in practice. This technical note explains how to choose predictor variables to include in regression. The note begins by explaining the many virtues of parsimony. Sometimes analysts include predictors simply because they are in the available data. Including such "junk" predictors increases the chances of obtaining confusing or misleading results. The note also explores multicollinearity, a favorite topic in some statistics classes that is rarely a problem in real world empirical work. The note concludes by explaining how to work with groups of related variables and describes how to implement the partial F test for joint significance. -
State Capitalism and State-Owned Enterprise Reform, Module Note
The note examines state capitalism in the twenty-first century. It introduces a series of topics and cases related to state capitalism, such as the debate about the causes of inefficiency in state owned enterprises, possible ways of turning them around, as well as a short discussion of sovereign wealth funds (SWFS), national champions, development banks, etc. The note explicitly links some of these topics to HBS cases designed to dive deeper into each subject. -
Overview of the Business Case Writing Process
Why would busy executives participate in business case studies? The relationship that develops between executives and faculty through the case writing process is a powerful example of sharing and trust. And because a number of executives are unaware of what exactly the process entails, they ask for a description of it. This note describing the process may be customized to suit the needs of all case writers. -
Using Binary Variables to Represent Logical Conditions in Optimization Models
Logical conditions that link different elements of a business decision are very common in managerial practice. For example, a firm can ship only to and from warehouses that are open; patients needing MRIs can only get service in clinics that have MRI equipment; regarding an old power plant, one can decide to close it or retrofit it, but one obviously cannot retrofit a closed plant. The list goes on. In quantitative modeling of such situations, a natural step is to use IF statements such as IF(a warehouse in city N is open, then we can ship to/from it; otherwise no shipments can be made in/out of a warehouse in N). In optimization models, however, IF statements lead to non-linearity with all the associated challenges. Fortunately, nearly all logical conditions can be modeled linearly using binary variables. This note describes some helpful modeling techniques for doing that. -
Note: Net Cash, Share Repurchases and EPS Growth
How companies with large net cash positions can enhance earnings/share through share repurchase in an environment of low interest rates. -
Managing the Layoff Process: The United States
This note is an overview of the context for managing layoffs in the United States. It describes the legal responsibilities of managers in conducting layoffs, recent unemployment trends, and the financial, health, training, job placement and other benefits that laid-off employees can expect to receive. -
Managing the Layoff Process: India
This note is an overview of the context for managing layoffs in India. It describes the legal responsibilities of managers in conducting layoffs, recent unemployment trends, and the financial, health, training, job placement and other benefits that laid-off employees can expect to receive. -
The Power of One
Each of us possesses an inner force that enables us to be optimally effective in all aspects of life. The power of one is much more than an abstraction that animates our actions. It has practical applications for day to day life, from school to work, and throughout our personal lives. The power of one provides a way to converse with ourselves, to crystallize what is important, thereby enabling us to make coherent decisions. And because it emanates from the core of who we are and what we stand for, it allows us to identify and think through our priorities. -
Introduction to Short Selling
We provide a primer on the market for securities' lending of equities in the United States. We describe the basic market structure, along with descriptions of the relevant market participants. We build intuition for the basic economic forces in this decentralized market through a series of examples that sequentially build on each other layering on the particular fees and collateral requirements commonly levied in short-selling transactions. We also provide a survey of the academic literature to date on the relationship between short selling and securities' prices. -
The Hybrid Vehicle Market
This note describes the hybrid electic vehicle market, the results of different automaker strategies, and the environmental regulatory issues that can promote or inhibit market growth in the United States. Introduces students to the technologies and regulatory aspects of vehicles using alternative powertrains and fuels including hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, electic vehicles, and deisel engines. Enable students to evaluate the success of the Toyota Prius, especially when used as an updated supplement to a case discussion of Toyota Motor Corp.: Launching Prius (HBS Case 706458). -
Scoring a Deal: Valuing Outcomes in Multi-Issue Negotiations
This case describes a method for valuing outcomes and appraising tradeoffs in a multiple-issue negotiation. Employing an illustrative example, this case details the step-by-step process of articulating, testing, and revising scores which may help negotiators clarify their own preferences and priorities. -
Mining and Corporate Social Responsibility: A Note on Mining in Peru
This background note discusses the history and current state of mineral mining in Peru. Topics include stakeholders, government policies, corruption, regulation, conflicts, social costs, remediation, and the advocacy role of NGOs. The note can be used with two case studies on mining in Peru, Newmont Mining Corporation and BHP Billiton. The note also discusses the current debate on how to procure greater compliance to international standards by mining companies and the potential impact these decisions may have on the future of mining in that country. -
Mining and Corporate Social Responsibility: A Note on Mining in Peru
This background note discusses the history and current state of mineral mining in Peru. Topics include stakeholders, government policies, corruption, regulation, conflicts, social costs, remediation, and the advocacy role of NGOs. The note can be used with two case studies on mining in Peru, Newmont Mining Corporation and BHP Billiton. The note also discusses the current debate on how to procure greater compliance to international standards by mining companies and the potential impact these decisions may have on the future of mining in that country. -
Analyzing Inventory Cost and Service in Supply Chains
Supply chains consume vast amounts of capital and are responsible for most of a firm's cost of goods and operating expenses. Supply chains also create significant value and can be the deciding factor in whether a firm will keep its customers. Through concrete examples, this case introduces students to an inventory model that shows how to quantify the often-subtle impact of both operational and structural changes in a supply chain. -
Self-Monitoring
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Self-Monitoring (Abridged)
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The Promise of Impact Investing
This note provides an overview of the impact investing industry, a new and burgeoning field of investments seeking to create social and environmental benefits while also generating a financial return. Recent reports have estimated a global market of at least $500 billion in the next decade. The note discusses the role of the various players such as impact investors, intermediary organizations, and program implementors in the development of the industry, as well as the emergence of new corporate structures for social enterprises and the creation of innovative financial instruments such as the Social Impact Bond. -
The Market for Consumer Finance
This note describes the market for consumer finance products in the United States. The note focuses on the changes in supply and demand that have occurred since the mid-20th century, and highlights recent approaches to finance for low-credit rated borrowers. -
A Glossary of Technical Terms Related to Bankruptcy in the U.S.
Quick reference guide of various terms related to the United States Bankruptcy Code. Outline of some of the important technical terms related to the bankruptcy process in the United States. Covers both Chapter 7 and Chapter 11 with a brief definition of both and a summary of the legal process. Bankruptcy terms related to the US Bankruptcy Code.