個案總覽

This note gives step-by-step instructions on how to build a Monte Carlo simulation model in Microsoft Excel without using spreadsheet add-ins. The note explains the difference between "random" and "uniformly distributed." The note also explains: how the Excel function RAND() works, how to use Excel functions like NORMINV() to simulate random numbers from distributions other than the uniform; how to use VLOOKUP() with tabulated data to simulate numbers from any arbitrary distribution, and how to use Data Tables to produce multiple iterations of a simulation model. The note concludes with an example that illustrates the use of all of these concepts.

In June 2008, the chief executive officer of Talisman Energy Inc. (Talisman) and his senior executive team met with the company's board of directors. The purpose of this meeting was to debate Talisman's proposed entry into the oil-rich Kurdistan region of Iraq. This move was potentially very lucrative for Talisman but was fraught with risks. These risks were exacerbated by Talisman's previous foray into Sudan; during that expansion Talisman had been accused of complicity in human-rights abuses, stemming from industry-accepted royalties and fees it had paid to the government. This payment of fees was held as an example by public interest groups to allege that Talisman was indirectly funding the Sudanese civil war. Talisman's reputation had suffered to the point where the ire of investors and U.S. and Canadian governments was sufficient for Talisman to exit Sudan in 2003. There were many questions about the proposed move to Iraq, including the political situation, the views of the U.S. and Canadian government, and especially the US$220 million fee payable to the Kurdistan Regional Government. Should Talisman enter Iraq, and if so, could they avoid experiencing the same outcome as Sudan?

LAB International (LAB) has two divisions that have vastly different strategies. The research and development division has a continuing need for funding and a high degree of risk, while the contract research division is a cash generator and is less risky. LAB is attempting to raise additional capital but believes that the shares of the company are undervalued in the market. It is contemplating a spinoff of one of the divisions to raise the funds and to make each company more of a pure play and therefore to achieve a more appropriate market valuation. Students must assess the merits of this strategy and place a value on the spinoff.

In January 2008, Márcio Luiz Simões Utsch, president & CEO of Sâo Paulo Alpargatas S.A., and his management team are looking at how to turn Havaianas, a leading brand in rubber flip flops, into a major global brand. Learning objectives: The case looks at how a Brazilian footwear company is trying to build a global brand in a highly competitive industry.

The case follows Andrew Housser and Brad Stroh, two recent graduates from the Stanford GSB, as they search for a business opportunity and ultimately start a company in the consumer finance industry. It covers their inspiration for the business idea and their decision to initially bootstrap the company. The case then highlights some of the complexities involved in managing a rapidly growing business. Specifically, Housser and Stroh are faced with challenging decisions regarding expansion/opening a second call center and with hiring/firing and the resulting difficult conversations with employees. Finally, the case concludes with an overview of a lawsuit currently filed against the company and the founders trying to decide the best course of action for Freedom Financial Network.

Dexter Nelson recently accepted a summer analyst position at PPC Consulting (PPC) in Toronto, and was excited to take on the challenge in a high-performance organization. It had only been a few days since he had started his internship when the rest of Dexter Nelson's team left to conduct primary research at a client site. Left alone to work on his first real project, he began to feel overwhelmed. Having recognized the project as a new product launch, Nelson wanted to identify key elements to address in the financial model. He also wanted to identify a series of actions to make a significant contribution not only to the client, but his team. He began to approach his task by identifying his problem and decision to be made, using an importance-urgency matrix and developing and analyzing appropriate alternatives.

bracNet, a for-profit/nonprofit partnership, aims to establish Internet connectivity throughout Bangladesh. Venture capitalist Patrik Brummer invested in a first round of funding to connect major cities. Should he invest again, this time in a rural roll-out, which may have lower financial returns but greater social returns?

The case explores the entrepreneurial journey of Oprah Winfrey, examining how she built an audience for one of the most successful television shows in history; how she created the company, Harpo Productions, that produces that show as well as other media offerings; how she leads and manages her organization; and how she has chosen to use the authority and other fruits of success to make a significant social as well as business contribution. The case uses interviews with Winfrey and her team to analyze how the business model and strategy of the company has changed-in the context of a dynamic marketplace, rapid technological innovation and Winfrey's own evolving conception of her purpose and path.

In early 2008, managers at Linden Lab, creator of the virtual world Second Life, faced decisions about the company's growth strategy. Despite profound initial skepticism about demand for a user-generated virtual world that was not a traditional game, Second Life had achieved profitability and strong growth. However, sustaining growth would prove challenging. Growth had strained Linden Lab's technical infrastructure. Also, although Second Life had attracted a large, loyal base of early adopters, it was unclear whether their preferences were similar to those of mainstream consumers. In this context, management faced choices about platform strategy and target markets. Should Linden Lab continue to offer an open platform or build its own solutions for customers? Should it target adult consumers, teens, enterprise customers, or the education market?

Gucci Group's CEO had to decide if his decentralized management style was the most effective philosophy in an economic downturn. The sharing of customer information across units and its use in the creative process are key initiatives analyzed in the case. CEO Robert Polet joined the high-end fashion Gucci Group in 2004, after 26 years at one of the largest consumer goods companies. Since his arrival, the Group had grown both in revenues and profitability. Part of his secret was his decentralized and empowering management style. In 2008, in the midst of the economic downturn following the credit crunch crisis, Polet learned that after four years of growth the Gucci brand-the Group's largest business-would report a slowdown for the year's first semester. He knew that according to his management philosophy he should leave the primary decisions for the Gucci brand to Gucci's CEO. Yet, given the urgency of the situation, Polet wondered if it would be more effective to become directly involved in the brand's decision-making process. To anchor the discussion on Polet's management style, the case discusses how customer information is used in the creative process and whether it would be beneficial for the group to share customer information across stores, regions, and brands.

Bob Beall is the Chief Executive Officer of the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation ("CFF"). CFF is an extremely successful organization, but Beall has to determine how to manage the organization through the financial crisis of 2008/2009. In this situation, donations are likely to decline, investment surplus has declined and biotech partners are challenged to finance joint projects as well as their own operations. Beall is striving to find a cure for cystic fibrosis while also determining what priorities he must emphasize and what trade-off decisions he must make in managing through the current period. He is preparing for a meeting with his board of trustees where he plans to discuss the current situation and the key decisions the organization needs to make.

Virginia Mason Medical Center (VM) hired Owens & Minor (O&M) as its alpha vendor for medical/surgical supplies in 2004. By 2005, O&M was performing JIT and LUM services for VM, but they believed the pricing model in the industry was outdated. VM and O&M partnered to create the Total Supply Chain Cost (TSCC) pricing program, an activity-based model that assigned all the cost drivers of distribution and inventory handling to VM, but also assured O&M of a profit. The TSCC incented VM to streamline its distribution activities, since these would directly impact its fee. After beta testing the TSCC for one year, VM's Daniel Borunda and O&M's Michael Stefanic believed that TSCC was a better and more cost-effective pricing model, but could they convince their companies to continue to invest in TSCC?

The epilogue to Supply Chain Partners: Virginia Mason and Owens & Minor (A), the B case details the outcome of the issues discussed in Case A; namely that Virginia Mason and Owens & Minor did implement the TSCC contract. Virginia Mason also kept the suture contract with O&M because the TSCC model was able to prove that O&M was the low-cost provider. Case B also gives results metrics, such as reduction in line items, orders, and days sales outstanding.

Richard Ferlauto, director of pensions and benefits policy at the AFSCME, the largest public sector workers union in the U.S., was responsible for protecting the pensions of its members. Because pensions were invested for decades, Ferlauto wanted the companies in which the union invested to be managed for the long-term interests of shareholders. He believed this required good corporate governance and effective oversight by the board of directors. The case explores the history of AFSCME's shareholder activism on this front and particularly its use of shareholder proposals voted on by shareholders at annual meetings. The case then looks at the issue of executive compensation and the idea that excessive compensation is a sign of poor governance. It also discusses the union's Say on Pay proposals that sought to allow shareholders an advisory vote on executive compensation. Finally, the case provides details on the rise of Countrywide Financial, its collapse, the role it played in the mortgage financial crisis, and the excessive compensation of its CEO.

Spreadsheet Supplement for case 109077

Spreadsheet Supplement for case 109076