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Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking
內容大綱
This is an MIT Sloan Management Review article. Among the many tools a manager can use for strategic planning, scenario planning stands out for its ability to capture a range of possibilities in rich detail. By identifying basic trends and uncertainties, a manager can construct a series of scenarios what help to compensate for the usual errors in decision making--overconfidence and tunnel vision. Through case studies of Interpublic, an international advertising agency, and Anglo-American Corp. in South Africa, the author describes how to build scenarios in a step-by-step process and how to use the resulting stories to plan a company's future.