個案資料

This is an MIT Sloan Management Review article. Many project managers and their executive sponsors are surprised when projects go off track: "Why didn't we see that coming?"Even projects that employ sophisticated techniques for risk management have surprising derailments. However, risk management can only manage known risks, and "unknown unknowns"(often called "unk-unks") are lurking in every project. The authors argue, however, that many unk-unks aren't really unk-unks at all. Rather, they are things no one has bothered to find out. Indeed, the authors point out, there are two kinds of unknowns: unknown unknowns (things we don't know we don't know) and known unknowns (things we know we don't know). Every project has some of both. The techniques of conventional risk management apply only to the known unknowns. However, some unk-unks can be converted into known unknowns through a process of directed recognition. The article provides an overview of the targets, methods and tools of directed recognition -the where, why and how. First, the authors introduce six project domains in and around a project where uncertainty resides (and where recognition should occur). Second, they describe the characteristics that increase uncertainty in projects and explain why they make unk-unks more likely. Finally, they present a set of techniques for converting knowable unk-unks into known unknowns. Although unk-unks are by definition things managers don't realize they are missing, it's possible, the authors say, to look at a project and its context and realize that unk-unks are likely to exist -and why.

• Project management