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內容大綱
An angel/venture capitalist could invest in an Internet sheet-music publishing start-up. The chance of success multiplied by the value, if successful, suggests that this isn't a good investment. Nevertheless, several friends suggest the optionality present in the venture: abort an unsuccessful Web site and sell the technology; switch the technology if the Web site is good, expand, buyout. Decision trees and Monte Carlo simulations are used to value these options, which make the opportunity look very attractive.