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Ratnagiri Alphonso Orchard: Bayesian Decision Analysis
內容大綱
In late 2012, the owner of the Ratnagiri Alphonso Orchard considered whether or not to purchase information from a climatology firm regarding the probability of unseasonable rains that could have damaged some or all of his family's mango harvest. The owner needed to decide whether or not he should lease the orchard to a fruit merchant or keep the orchard for his family to harvest, despite the possibility of rain. Would the climatology firm have provided helpful information, or should he have made an independent decision? Regardless of whether he purchased information from the climatology firm, what was the best informed decision he could have made?