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Spreadsheet for case UV6136

The manager of a paper plant must decide whether to buy a new electrode boiler to replace a natural gas boiler. The challenge is to cut through complexities such as uncertainty in boiler efficiency, energy prices, financing alternatives, and supplier/competitor relationships to arrive at a first-cut analysis and decision. While the case is rich with issues, a considered decision can be made without using the sophisticated methods available to treat these complexities. The case is designed as an introductory class in which an agenda for a course in decision analysis/management science is established.

A regional director of a consulting firm must decide how to compete for a major consulting contract. Appshop can take a level payment contract, a lower level payment with a prospective bonus given high performance, or bid on an RFP where a significant reward is given contingent on the client's savings. The case can be used to introduce Monte Carlo simulation modeling and to build skills in structuring a decision tree in a spreadsheet. It affords an opportunity to simulate alternative risk profiles and to discuss their comparative advantages.

Spreadsheet for case UV3860

This case concerns a company's advertising and redesign decisions for a DSL service. These decisions affect the switching of customers among various classifications, including those who currently use the service. The focus of the case will be on modeling the dynamics of the system and related optimal decision-making. How to structure spreadsheets using influence diagrams can be part of the discussion. The case provides an opportunity to discuss decisions using different time horizons.

A credit-card company must value portfolios of customers based on their future earnings. The payment characteristics of customers serve to classify them into states. This case can be the basis for discussing state dynamics over time in a Markov process.

This case builds on the case "Merck & Company: Product KL-798" by providing market uncertainties for the drug (drug quality, the presence of a competitor, market growth, and the time to the drug's release). Details and spreadsheets are provided for the calculation of net present values for the scenarios. There is an additional challenge of how to treat the several downstream decisions (using OptQuest, for example) and how to value the license opportunity.

Spreadsheet supplement for case UV0365.

The concept of exposure, or uncertainty that matters, is developed as the target of hedging. Then, how to hedge that exposure--in particular, how to use regression analysis to obtain a hedging ratio--is described. The note concludes with a discussion of hedging multiple uncertainties and how to use correlations in developing a hedging strategy.

This note describes the use of the OptQuest tool (updated July 2009) for optimal decision variable searches based on Crystal Ball Monte Carlo simulations. Setup of the objectives and constraints, selecting run options, saving results, and a simple example are all included.

Merck has been approached by a small biotech research firm with the proposal that Merck buy the rights to a new drug that promises to treat obesity and lower cholesterol. The drug is in the middle of phase I of the FDA approval process. Pat Harlow, the chief licensing officer, has been leading Merck's investigation team. A meeting is scheduled for tomorrow at which Merck's response to the offer will be drafted.

An angel/venture capitalist could invest in an Internet sheet-music publishing start-up. The chance of success multiplied by the value, if successful, suggests that this isn't a good investment. Nevertheless, several friends suggest the optionality present in the venture: abort an unsuccessful Web site and sell the technology; switch the technology if the Web site is good, expand, buyout. Decision trees and Monte Carlo simulations are used to value these options, which make the opportunity look very attractive.

Spreadsheet supplement for case UV0620.

New options on weather from Enron are described, in particular floors, swaps, and caps on heating degree days. An electric utility is considering whether to purchase a weather derivative to offset the risk of low volume of kilowatt hours. After understanding the nature and purpose of the contract, students will structure the option in preparation for valuing it.

New options on weather from Enron are described, in particular floors, swaps, and caps on heating degree days. An electric utility is considering whether to purchase a weather derivative to offset the risk of low volume of kilowatt hours. After understanding the nature and purpose of the contract, students will structure the option in preparation for valuing it.

In March 1997, an executive vice president of Genzyme Corporation must develop the terms by which the $518 billion (revenue) firm will form a joint venture with a small biotechnology firm to make and market a new drug. The tasks for the decision-maker are to estimate the enterprise value of the new joint venture and to recommend how large an interest to acquire in the venture, and to determine what price to pay for that interest, and when. The case may be used to pursue some or all of the following objectives: (1) exercising analytical techniques, (2) introducing a framework for creating value and reducing risk, (3) exploring the impact on value of a hidden option (staged investing), and (4) visualizing risk and its implications.

Microsoft is planning the introduction of Internet Explorer along with Windows 95. Issues include how aggressive the company should be in providing its browser with Windows 95 and restricting OEMs (original-equipment manufacturers) from putting other browsers on their computers. Should Microsoft go for initial share, concentrate on stealing over time, retain customers, or enlarge the total size of the browser market? Students use a Markov process with initial states and switching probabilities to gain insight into resolving these issues.

The director of Corporate Research faces the problem of setting the annual budget for the various areas of research. See also UV0530 and UV0531.

An account executive has the task of calculating a beta value for three stocks of interest to an important client, based on five years of monthly total returns. The client is interested in these beta values as measures of the riskiness of the three investments. This case is best used near the beginning of a module on regression. It focuses on the simple linear regression model relating equity returns to market returns. This use of regression (to calculate a stock's beta) is very common in financial analyses and will be seen by the students in other courses. The case serves to clarify the distinction between systematic and unsystematic risk and between R-squared and the standard deviation of residuals as measures of forecasting uncertainty.