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Merck has been approached by a small biotech research firm with the proposal that Merck buy the rights to a new drug that promises to treat obesity and lower cholesterol. The drug is in the middle of phase I of the FDA approval process. Pat Harlow, the chief licensing officer, has been leading Merck's investigation team. A meeting is scheduled for tomorrow at which Merck's response to the offer will be drafted.

John Bowen has aggressively interviewed with management consulting firms and Fortune 100 corporate planning offices. His efforts have paid off for he has received several very appealing offers. The contenders have been narrowed down to two prestigious, strategic consulting firms. One of the firms is Windburn Associates where the potential salary increase is just not enough to offset its lower starting salary offer. See also UVA-QA-0567 for Windburn's perspective.

This case shows George Lassiter's revised forecast based on "George's T-Shirts" (UV0680) and "George's T-Shirts Addendum" (UV0689).

This addendum to George's T-shirts (UV0680) offers a revised forecast in the form of a cumulative distribution function for the two key uncertainties in the case. It can be used as the basis for introductory risk analysis tools such as Crystal Ball or @Risk.

This exercise allows students to assess probability distributions (.05, .25, .50, .75, .95 fractiles) for 10 uncertain quantities and to calibrate the reliability of their assessments.

This note develops a variety of approaches to sensitivity analysis within the context of a promotional decision regarding a consumer product. Analyses include the development of optimistic/pessimistic scenarios, one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis with a presentation in the format of a tornado diagram, and threshold (break-even) values.

This note serves as an introduction to probability distribution--their interpretation and their assessment. Uniform and triangular distributions, as well as discrete distributions, are discussed. Summary measures are presented. The discussion is framed in the context of an appraisal of a proposed product enhancement.

The note begins by suggesting various dimensions along which competitive situations may differ. It then introduces the matrix game structure and means to analyze a matrix games through iterative domination. The terms, Pareto-optimal and equilibrium are introduced. The note ends with a review of several classical matrix game structures: No Conflict Deliemma and Battle of the Sexes.

Emergency Vehicle Positioning, Inc. (EVPI) has developed a satellite-based tracking system that continuously updates and displays the location of every vehicle in its network. A recently signed contract presents new technical challenges that may make the normally installed system inadequate. While it is possible to augment the system so that it will definitely work, doing so would entail considerable cost. This case is a modified version of "Integrated Siting Systems, Inc." [UV0355]. The only difference is that the latter case provides all possible conditional probabilities, offering a slightly different introduction to Bayes Theorem. In this case, only the recent conditional probabilities are provided. Indeed, except for the name, date, final paragraph (which mentions the other probabilities), and the exhibit on conditional probabilities, the cases are identical. Therefore, the teaching note for the Integrated Siting Systems case [UV0356] is also appropriate for this case.

TourAmerica is negotiating a master contract with Voyager Inn International (Bethesda) for hotel rooms during the 1995 tourist season. Issues under consideration include number of rooms during peak, mid-, and off-periods, room rates, breakfast prices, and the cost of ancillary services. While the hotel manager is evaluated on the basis of several criteria, including adjusted daily rates, occupancy rates, and food and beverage profitability, and is also provided with a utility scheme to facilitate trade-offs among the criteria, TourAmerica uses an effective cost per registrant (adjusted for intangibles). These two approaches provide an opportunity to contrast measurement schemes and to justify the use of utility functions. This case is a role-play exercise and must be used in conjunction with "Voyager Inn International" (UV0357).

Integrated Siting Systems, Inc. has developed a satellite-based tracking system that continuously updates and displays the location of every vehicle in its network. A recently signed contract presents new technical challenges that may make the normally installed system inadequate. While it is possible to augment the system so that it will definitely work, doing so is costly. Alternatively, it is possible to conduct an imperfect test that will improve the company's information about whether the normal system will work. An alternative to this system is Emergency Vehicle Positioning, Inc. (see UV0359). Except for the name, date, final paragraph (which mentions the other conditional probabilities), and the exhibit of conditional probabilities, the two cases are identical.

This reporting form accompanies the Sorensen Chevrolet (Harvard Case No. 9-175-258) and captures the student's assessments of the outcomes of the court case and the settlement reached (if any).

This case and its companion, "Myerson Industries" (UV0428), constitute the materials for a negotiating exercise. The excercise is a distributive-bargaining situation surrounding the negotiation of the price for the construction of a building (some minor opportunities exist for creating mutual value).

This case and its companion, "Centralia Construction Corporation" (UV0345), constitute the materials for an excercise in role playing and negotiating. The exercise is a distributive-bargaining situation surrounding the negotiation of the price for the construction of a building (some minor opportunities exist for creating mutual value). Myerson is the purchaser of the building.

Students are asked in each of the situations presented, which alternative is better, assuming that they would put whatever money they receive in a secure investment that returns 10% annually.

You are Pat Divso, a senior purchasing agent of Compressor Corporation, Inc. (CCI). You have been given a major purchasing assignment to find a solution to the deadlocked price negotiations with Scandia Steel AB, a major supplier of specialty high-carbon and stainless steels, and a strategically critical partner. You are now en route from your Paris office to Sweden where you will meet tomorrow, August 29, 1995, with Kaj Johansson (pronounced Ki), marketing director of Scandia Steel at Scandia's headquarters in Uppsala.

This case provides the background for one participant in a contract negotiation regarding price, duration, and exclusivity.

George Lasiter sells special-events T-shirts, and must decide how many to order for an upcoming concert. He has high, medium, and low estimates of both concert attendance and the percentage of attendees who will want a shirt. In addition, he has assessed the relative likelihoods of each estimate. The case can be used to introduce or reinforce the fundamental issues surrounding decision-making under uncertainty.

This case considers the EPA's bubble policy, which allows pollution to be managed on a plantwide basis rather than stack by stack. A pollution constraint is added to a linear-programming model that may be used to plan production and the control of pollution.