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Statistical significance functions as an arbiter of sorts for data analysis purporting to show a relationship between two or more variables. Unfortunately, in far too many situations, statistical significance may lead decision-makers relying on data and analytics to improve business decisions astray, particularly in the context of big data. In this article, I outline reasons why executives should develop a healthy discernment when they see the phrase "statistically significant" in media outlets, internal analyses, consulting reports, and other sources. To overcome the limitations of focusing on statistical significance, I propose executives shift their attention toward the effect size reported from a statistical model. While not without limitation, effect sizes are more useful to decision-makers, highlight the practical implication of analyses, and help in quantifying the uncertainty inherent to working with data.

Founder Collective ("FC") launched in 2009 with a clear mission: to be the most aligned fund for founders at the seed stage. In keeping with its mission, FC maintained smaller fund sizes and was not a lifecycle investor. By November of 2021, the seed market had become more competitive, and FC had successfully picked several Unicorn and even Decacorn investments, causing some LPs to wonder about the opportunity costs of FC's "no pro rata" view. Managing Partners David Frankel, Eric Paley, and Micah Rosenbloom wondered if the seed investing sector had changed too much and if they should evolve their strategy. They contemplated three potential paths forward: start investing their pro rata in later rounds, raise an opportunity fund, or continue their current strategy.

Benny Chung-Ying Zee was a professor at a prestigious university in Hong Kong and founder of Health View Bioanalytic Limited (Health View). Health View offered fast, inexpensive, non-invasive assessments of the risk of stroke and Alzheimer’s disease by using artificial intelligence and automatic retinal image analysis (ARIA) of pictures of patients’ retinas using fundus cameras. While Health View was breaking even, Zee realized that it was not yet a success. Thus, Zee was considering how to scale up the company to realize the impact of its technology. Zee had to assess the current business model—its value proposition, target market, sales channels, and strategic partners—and determine how he could scale up and redirect Health View.

A former investment banking professional had her eureka moment when she noticed instances of assaults on single women travelling alone in taxi cabs at odd times of the day. The prevalence of these instances led her to begin a safe cab service run by women for women-Taxshe Services Pvt. Ltd. (Taxshe), located in Bengaluru, India. In March 2020, the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic began in India, and a lockdown was announced as a preventive measure. Taxshe, whose customers mainly comprised working women and school-going children, faced a significant challenge, as the sudden changes and stringent restrictions brought on by the lockdown precipitated a substantial drop in the need for cab services. Taxshe's founder contemplated the company's dilemma and consulted people from across her wide network of personal and professional acquaintances. How could she keep Taxshe up and running in spite of the restrictions brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic? What value-added specialty services could Taxshe offer as a cab service during the pandemic that would benefit society at large?

Three college friends-Rijin John, Vivek George and Arun Ghosh-came together to realise their decade-old dream of starting an enterprise. They launched Santa Express, an on-demand delivery service, for the pickup and delivery of handy and nonperishable goods in Kochi. Their idea of Santa serving customers was based partly on market research and intuition. However, lately, things have been difficult for Santa Express because of scaling issues, lack of an able/reliable workforce, funding, lack of long-term planning, co-founder's shifting commitments and pricing. The time had come for the co-founders to decide whether to continue the venture or shut it down. The case poses a real-life situation for students considering or planning to establish new ventures. They will have to struggle with many of the questions facing Santa Express. Some students may be naturally inclined to throw caution to the wind and just go for it. Others may allow all the uncertainties and associated risks-real and imagined-to give them an excuse to take the safe road. This case allows the students to experience both the appealing facets and bothersome ambiguities of a start-up.

In September 2015, Pooja Viswanathan, a post-doctoral research scientist, emerged perplexed after a meeting with her post-doc supervisor. The purpose of the meeting had been to debrief on Viswanathan's progress in response to the unexpected multi-stakeholder feedback received on the outcome of her six years of research: a prototype of an anti-collision system that enhanced wheelchair users' mobility. To her considerable surprise and confusion, there seemed to be no consensus on the commercial viability of her prototype. Viswanathan stood in the corridor outside the meeting room and pondered her next steps. One option was to return to the post-doc bench and continue to develop her academic work and publish her findings. Alternatively, she could try to address the feedback she had received and start up her own venture, whereby she could commercialize a solution with stronger market potential. Viswanathan knew she had reached a fork in the road and now had to make a decisive career choice.

After years of learning from the best bakeries around the world, Polish entrepreneur Monika Walecka returned to her native Poland and, in 2019, opened her artisanal bakery, All in Flour. The bakery was an extension of her values and struck a delicate balance between financial and social objectives. All in Flour was located in one of the most upscale districts of Warsaw and focused on top-quality bread products. It used high-quality, diverse, and expensive ingredients sourced from small, local suppliers, and its bread prices were probably the highest in Warsaw. Walecka was considering whether to pursue any development options. In fact, her preferred option, at present, was to do nothing. She knew that growth was not an obvious choice because it came with risk, costs, and problems. Nevertheless, the decision of whether to change something was becoming the most important challenge of her entrepreneurial career as a baker.

AcademyOne, Inc. (AcademyOne) was a small privately owned software provider whose focus was on providing students with college transfer solutions. It operated as an educational technology company that provided software as a service (SaaS) products to simplify and streamline the college transfer and advising process. After surviving an economic recession and an industry lawsuit, the firm had regained its financial footing, and in 2021, now that it was financially secure, some of its long-term investors had asked to cash out their investments. AcademyOne's president and chief operating officer was tasked with looking for ways to grow the business and with valuing AcademyOne, with the end game of selling the business.

Ecosystems are the result of a delicate balance between centripetal forces that push economic activities toward integration, and centrifugal forces that pull economic activities out onto the market. Ecosystems evolve when these forces change. For example, technological complementarities - the main source of centripetal force - are dynamic and may be commoditized, generalized, or standardized over time. Management and coordination also change: for example, open innovation practices enable firms to move innovation activities from the in-house R&D lab out into the ecosystem. This article discusses how such dynamics in technologies and management lead to ecosystem evolution.

A great transformation of human life is underway that will soon determine everything from how we treat disease to how we nourish ourselves and fight climate change. That according to the authors, who describe possible scenarios for incorporating biological innovation into organizations. If they pan out, the resulting impacts will be world-changing indeed: beating cancer, embracing biofuels at scale and the end of traditional meat farming, to name a few. And the scenarios they describe, they say, are only the tip of the iceberg.

Due to technological change, leaders and the organizations they run have no choice but to embrace perpetual transformation. In this environment, evolving the business model is an ongoing process that demands close attention to the customer and their 'jobs to be done'. Traditionally, start-ups have focused on this via Lean Start-up Methodology; but today, every organization must adopt this focus. The author, a Silicon Valley veteran, describes a new framework-the Jobs-to-be-Done Market Definition Canvas, which makes needs discovery faster-and reliably leads to market success.

In light of the current challenges the world faces, every one of us must be prepared to take action amidst uncertainty. The author-Executive Director of the Stanford d.school-argues that tools from the realm of Design offer methods for dealing with an ever-changing world. She shows that thinking and learning like a designer can be tremendously Powerful, but that in today's world, success is never about a single approach or moment of insight. She shares three methods that will help leaders thrive in this challenging environment-and shape the world for the better: stakeholder mapping, engaging your inner ethicist, and the Futures Wheel. All are intended to create lively conversations, much like the diverse voices every organization needs.

The case describes the founding, development, and scaling of Antler, an early-stage investment platform that invests in entrepreneurs pre-team and, in many cases, even pre-idea. The case explores the economics of venture capital investing at such an early stage and the various challenges and opportunities to build a platform that not only systematically selects the right founders, but also allows them to build teams and access resources needed to succeed. The case allows for a detailed look at these issues through the lens of two founding teams that were selected for Antler's early-stage investment programs but have very different assessed quantitative and qualitative factors that may impact their future success. Through analyzing these two opportunities for Antler, important issues are surfaced in how to combine analytics with human judgment as Antler's senior leadership looks to scale their investment platform both in terms of number of founding teams and across multiple countries.

In May 2021, Claire Reid, the founder of social enterprise start-up Reel Gardening, spoke about her ambitious ten-year plan to help secure nutritious food for impoverished people in South Africa and elsewhere in the world. Reel Gardening produced and sold a paper strip packed with seeds and fertilizer. Although the company had grown significantly, it had to manage the dual mission of social contribution and financial sustainability. The company had to determine whether expansion would shift it away from its social mission. Should Reid pursue an ambitious growth strategy, or should she keep the company small, grow it slowly, and focus on the larger social impact? Going forward, how should the company manage its growth, both strategically and financially?

On January 4, 2021, Mike Patriquin was contemplating the tumultuous year of 2020 and the impact it had had on operations at Hell’s Basement Brewery (HBB), the first brewery to open in Medicine Hat, Alberta, since the early 1900s. Recent events both within and outside the brewery had affected his business. Management had recently restructured financially after buying out some of the original partners, and the remaining owners and management were still dealing with the effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic. The brewery had also had some unexpected media coverage. Patriquin was considering the next steps for HBB given the volatile nature of the industry in these unprecedented times.

In May 2021, Claire Reid, the founder of social enterprise start-up Reel Gardening, spoke about her ambitious ten-year plan to help secure nutritious food for impoverished people in South Africa and elsewhere in the world. Reel Gardening produced and sold a paper strip packed with seeds and fertilizer. Although the company had grown significantly, it had to manage the dual mission of social contribution and financial sustainability. The company had to determine whether expansion would shift it away from its social mission. Should Reid pursue an ambitious growth strategy, or should she keep the company small, grow it slowly, and focus on the larger social impact? Going forward, how should the company manage its growth, both strategically and financially?

On January 4, 2021, Mike Patriquin was contemplating the tumultuous year of 2020 and the impact it had had on operations at Hell's Basement Brewery (HBB), the first brewery to open in Medicine Hat, Alberta, since the early 1900s. Recent events both within and outside the brewery had affected his business. Management had recently restructured financially after buying out some of the original partners, and the remaining owners and management were still dealing with the effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic. The brewery had also had some unexpected media coverage. Patriquin was considering the next steps for HBB given the volatile nature of the industry in these unprecedented times.

Keith Bender, Principal at Pear Venture Capital, is working over the weekend to prepare for a Monday morning investment meeting. He has three startup pitch decks in front of him, and he must choose one to recommend at the meeting. He finds that each company has its strengths and weaknesses, but each has a notable advantage. The first company has a particularly compelling product, the second company is in a strong market, and the final company has a highly experienced team. Which pitch deck should Bender recommend?

The chief financial officer (CFO) of AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AngloGold Ashanti), one of the world’s largest gold mining companies, had for one year served as the company’s interim chief executive officer (CEO). In the summer of 2021, she accepted an invitation to speak at a luncheon for young female business leaders in the mining industry prior to learning of the unsuccessful outcome of her attempt to secure the permanent CEO position. The company had just announced that a man and seasoned CEO from Colombia would be assuming the role. She now found herself struggling with how to best position her message of inspiration to the young leaders, given the personal impact of the outcome of the CEO search. As a values-based leader, she acknowledged the importance of delivering a message of hope to the aspiring leaders, as well as the importance of honouring her own values. The outcome of her application for the permanent CEO position had also left her with the decision of whether to stay with or leave the organization.

The chief financial officer (CFO) of AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AngloGold Ashanti), one of the world's largest gold mining companies, had for one year served as the company's interim chief executive officer (CEO). In the summer of 2021, she accepted an invitation to speak at a luncheon for young female business leaders in the mining industry prior to learning of the unsuccessful outcome of her attempt to secure the permanent CEO position. The company had just announced that a man and seasoned CEO from Colombia would be assuming the role. She now found herself struggling with how to best position her message of inspiration to the young leaders, given the personal impact of the outcome of the CEO search. As a values-based leader, she acknowledged the importance of delivering a message of hope to the aspiring leaders, as well as the importance of honouring her own values. The outcome of her application for the permanent CEO position had also left her with the decision of whether to stay with or leave the organization.