個案總覽

Two Corning Glass Works products illustrate the use of various forecasting techniques. Managers and forecasters should consider three issues when approaching a forecasting problem: the purpose of the forecast, the dynamics and components of the system, and the importance of the past in estimating the future. The three basic forecasting methods are qualitative techniques, time series analysis and projection, and causal methods. A gatefold chart presents several examples of each type of technique, its feaures, and limitations. Although sales forecasting primarily has used forecasting techniques, these techniques will be applied increasingly to forecasting margins, capital expenditure, and other important factors.

Describes the decision of a battery manufacturer to diversify into the computer field through acquisition and the development of a new product. Among the issues to be discussed are the company product fit, phases in new product introduction, product positioning, and distribution strategy.

An examination of the Japanese style of management regarding decision making, corporate planning, worker productivity, and management training, suggests ways in which managers in the West might redirect their approaches to these issues. Topics described include decision by consensus, lifetime employment and continuous training, and managerial godfathers. Despite existing societal tensions and frustrations, Japan's managerial achievements contain answers to Western management's most pressing problems.

The fundamental psychological conflict that plagues family businesses is rivalry, compounded by feelings of guilt. Company founders feel rivalry when they unconsciously sense that subordinates threaten to remove them from their center of power. For the founders the business is an extension of themselves which they have great difficulty giving up. By confronting and discussing their feelings of hostility and rivalry, possibly in the presence of a neutral third party, family members begin to resolve their problems.

Leading ideas and theories regarding capital structure and capital assets are translated into a useable form for managers. The suggested framework for analysis concentrates on three areas related to preliminary investment decisions: tentative investment level and estimates of cash flow and earnings; the debt/equity structure or amount of debt to be carried; and dividend policy. Investment decisions influence capital cost which in turn influences investment volume.

Formal education programs emphasize the development of problem-solving and decision-making skills, but give little attention to finding and exploiting opportunities or to dealing with potential problems. Effective managers, on the other hand, share characteristics that cannot be taught in a classroom: they need to manage, they need power, and they have the capacity for empathy. Furthermore, managers develop leadership capacities by firsthand observation of their environment and by an assessment of feedback from their actions. Managerial aspirants must be taught how to learn from their own first-hand experiences. McKinsey Award Winner.

Dansk Designs Ltd., a supplier of high quality, highly designed tableware products, plans to enter a new product area in housewares. Past growth and anticipated future expansion make organizational changes necessary. Overseas operations, design changes, supplier relations, quality control, marketing strategy, and competition all have impact on the organizational structure.

The chairman of a successful pickle company is concerned with the organizational implications of continued growth. Affords an opportunity to analyze the corporate strategy and the management style of the chief executive.

Prediction and shipment has been a scheduling and budgetary problem. Multiple regression is suggested as a solution. Evaluation of regression coefficients leads to better understanding of trend, seasonality, and promotion effectiveness.

Comparison of alternative hull insurance policies. Risk analysis. Simulation suggested as solution procedures.

Personal history of David Alpert, with emphasis on psychoanalytic developmental issues.

Spreadsheet supplement for case 171-303.

The results of interviews with 600 Pillsbury employees, to determine the effectiveness of internal communications, reveal that good communication and favorable employee attitudes are related. Providing employees with information that they want quickly, and through the channels they prefer, characterizes good communication. The principle organizational procedures of an in-plant communications program are: setting aside 15 minutes of the workweek for supervisors to meet with employees, reporting verbally on matters of interest, and learning from question-and-answer sessions.

Negotiating with the Japanese involves many cultural complications which executives may profitably overcome through study and sensitivity. Japanese negotiations involve predictable steps and actions: establishing good personal relations, making a presentation, testing sincerity through style of approach, overcoming opposition or crises, drawing up the contract and closing the discussions. Americans may refine their philosophy of individualism by understanding the selfless Japanese emphasis on the harmony of the whole.

An "imperfect tester" problem involving the decision of how to produce batches of plastic strapping, given uncertainty about the length of the molecular chain in the raw material. A decision on whether to test the raw material and a choice of production process must be made; the latter choice, combined with the length of molecular chain, will affect costs and quality of output. For one process, there is additional uncertainty about pressure. Intended for use early in that portion of a decision theory course involving Bayes Theorem. Involves many decision theory techniques, and can also be used as an examination.

Douglas McGregor's "Theory Y" fails to explain worker motivation under all circumstances. Recent studies show that there is not one best organizational approach, and that the best approach is one fitted to the nature of the work to be done. The "Contingency Theory" states that an individual's central need is to achieve a sense of competence. Competence is most likely to be fulfilled when there is a fit between task and organization. In this situation, competence continues after the achievement of initial goals.

Organizations are political structures which provide platforms for the expression of individual interests, and which revolve around the accumulation of power as a vehicle for transforming personal interests into activities. A "political pyramid" exists when people compete for power in an economy of scarcity. The organizational structure is an instrument rather than an end. It represents the working coalition attached to a CEO, and is a product of negotiation and compromise among executives who hold semiautonomous power bases. McKinsey Award Winner.

Introduces the "Norton Plan" designed to halt Norton's declining share of the grinding wheel market.

Performance appraisal can have negative as well as positive motivational consequences, especially in "zero-sum" systems in which an employee's performance is ranked against that of his other peers. As alternatives, there are a number of "management by objectives" systems which center on the establishment of goals and the subsequent contrasting of performance with these goals. Employees are measured against agreed-upon goals rather than against each other. These systems are future-oriented, non zero-sum and flexible.

Companies should develop contingency plans aimed at preserving and managing the flow of funds to handle the problem of the unforeseen event. Companies should first maximize the amount of available reaction time by conducting a contingency analysis of possible events that would affect the company's performance. A computerized model of the company's finances can simulate contingency events and explore a range of alternative actions. The company should then make an inventory of resources it could draw upon to cover unexpected deficits.