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This reading provides an introduction to forecasting methods. It includes a brief summary of methods based on judgment and a longer section on quantitative analysis. It also provides sample data so readers can develop an understanding of concepts such as correlation, covariance, time-series data, moving averages, exponential smoothing, time-series decomposition, trend estimation, simple linear regression, autocorrelation, and multiple linear regression.

Isolated by the KGB in Moscow, Harvard graduate student Bruce Allyn faces high-pressure negotiation tactics to recruit him for the Soviet spy agency. At the tense height of the Cold War, with CIA agents systematically being exposed and executed in Russia, Allyn was participating in an unusual joint U.S.-Soviet study that alternated between the two countries. Going about his doctoral research, meeting and making friends with Russians, he accepted a low-key invitation from a trusted Russian friend to meet for lunch somewhere on the outskirts of Moscow. After hours of warm conversation, great food, and endless alcohol with a group of Russians, all but one of this group drifted out of the room. Suddenly the sole remaining man, "Vladimir," looked straight at Bruce and stated: "I am a high-ranking KGB officer. I have been commissioned to make to you a proposal." Drunk, isolated, and highly vulnerable, Allyn must negotiate with this sophisticated KGB counterpart. To recruit Allyn to secretly work for the KGB, the agent tries many approaches: barely veiled threats, offers of money, and the promise of high level access and Soviet documents that would enable Allyn over time to become the top U.S. Sovietologist. Should Allyn accept the offer, the agent stresses how Allyn could have a much better life and far more effectively advance the shared goals of reducing the risks of nuclear war and improving relations between the two hostile superpowers. Allyn must figure out what to do.

This case picks up (from the end of the "A" case) the detailed story of the KGB's high-pressure negotiations with Harvard doctoral student Bruce Allyn to recruit him as a secret asset for the Soviet spy agency. The "A" case describes how, at the tense height of the Cold War, with CIA agents systematically being exposed and executed in Russia, Allyn participated in an unusual joint U.S.-Soviet study that alternated between the two countries. Going about his doctoral research, meeting and making friends with Russians, he accepted a low-key invitation from a trusted Russian friend to meet for lunch somewhere on the outskirts of Moscow. After hours of warm conversation, great food, and endless alcohol with a group of Russians, all but one of this group drifted out of the room. Suddenly the sole remaining man, "Vladimir," looked straight at Bruce and stated: "I am a high-ranking KGB officer. I have been commissioned to make to you a proposal." Drunk, isolated, and highly vulnerable, Allyn must negotiate with this sophisticated KGB counterpart. To recruit Allyn to secretly work for the KGB, the agent tries many approaches: barely veiled threats, offers of money, and the promise of high level access and Soviet documents that would enable Allyn over time to become the top U.S. Sovietologist. Should Allyn accept the offer, the agent stresses how Allyn could have a much better life and far more effectively advance the shared goals of reducing the risks of nuclear war and improving relations between the two hostile superpowers. At the end of the "A" case, Allyn must figure out what to do. The "B" case recounts subsequent episodes in the negotiation as well as its conclusion.

Supplements the (A) case

In November 2013, Dr. Jose Pinto, head of Grupo Beta San Miguel (BSM), Mexico's largest private sugar producer, is weighing the future prospects of the Mexican sugar industry as he considers whether BSM should bid on one of the state-owned sugar mills slated for auction. His decision will be informed by dynamics in the North American sugar market-NAFTA affords Mexico unique duty-free access to the U.S.-as well as the world sugar market and other major sugar-producing countries, especially Brazil.

In 2012, the Chicago Teachers' Union went on strike over proposed reforms by the city's mayor, Rahm Emanuel. At the heart of the reforms, and the strike, was frustration over many decades of underperformance in the Chicago Public Schools (CPS) and a surge of controversial, largely market-based, experimentation in public education in many U.S. cities.

In 2006, Dr. WANG Shan was appointed as the president of Peking University People's Hospital (hereafter referred to as "PKUPH"), a large class 3A public hospital in China. Prior to his appointment, PKUPH had experienced three consecutive years of financial losses due to poor internal management. No standard operating procedure was established to prescribe the level of activity expected from each responsible person or decision units, and the amount of resources that a responsible party should use in achieving that level of activity. No formal management control systems were installed to collect, process, analyse accounting (particularly cost-related) information and provide timely feedback to the management. As a result, actual costs significantly exceeded budget. Loopholes in the system stemming from loose monitoring and control gave rise to severe agency problems. To turn the situation around, WANG Shan launched an IT-led management reform. By 2012, the reform has yielded significant and positive results. Annual revenues and profits increased significantly. Management and operational efficiency was also significantly enhanced. This case is intended to demonstrate how an institutionally complex organization (particularly hospitals) can overcome institutional challenges and upgrade management with an IT-oriented strategy.

By 2013, the agricultural sector in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) had long suffered from war, political instability, and dilapidated infrastructure. A country with 75 million inhabitants and the second lowest GDP per capita in the world in 2011, the DRC's most pressing task was to grow its agriculture sector and cultivate its 80 million hectares of fertile land. This case explores how a developing country could create a comprehensive strategy to implement the necessary institutional, political, and social frameworks needed to support sustainable agricultural developments and rise out of long-term poverty.

Elaine White is an accountant advising two couples, the Carsons and the Bradleys, regarding their charitable giving options and related tax strategies. The Carsons are an upper-middle class family with $295,000 in income, a moderate amount of deductions, and straightforward charitable giving objectives. The Bradleys are a wealthy couple with substantial assets, a more complex tax situation, and a desire to control the timing and recipients of their charitable contributions. White must consider the objectives of these families in the context of several charitable giving vehicles, including Public Charities, Private Foundations, Charitable Remainder Trusts, Charitable Lead Trusts, Donor-Advised Funds, and Pooled Income Funds.

This case examines world fertilizer markets from the perspective of a large Norwegian producer. The global fertilizer industry is critical to food production and to food security, and hence is the object of numerous forms of government intervention. The case analyzes questions of business strategy within this politically charged economic environment.

This brief follow-up complements the case on The LEGO Group: Stepping Up in Asia (9-113-054), and discusses the aftermath of the scenario planning session, in which LEGO managers contemplated the risks of their new Asian strategy. The scenario planning exercise played a role in managers' realization that the Group could not simply "copy-paste" its existing operating model across the diversity of Asian markets. LEGO invested significantly in Asia throughout 2012-2013 in order to adapt its playbook to the anticipated challenges. The case also describes how, in 2013, scenario planning became part of the business-planning process at the LEGO Group. It allows students to understand the difference between a tailored scenario planning exercise, and the tenuous future-gazing processes that generally fail to get traction among business managers.

Hospital CEO Paul Levy confronts an SEIU unionization drive via a "corporate campaign" aimed at undercutting the hospital's relationships with key internal and external constituencies. Having shepherded one of Boston's top teaching hospitals much of the way through a painful turnaround, but with the hospital still in a fragile financial condition, Levy must formulate a strategy and tactics to deal with the impending initiative by the SEIU, the fastest growing union in the United States with 2.1 million members and a huge organizing budget. The union will likely seek the hospital's agreement to a "neutrality agreement," under which, unlike traditional union processes, management would effectively be silenced during the organizing process. Levy is concerned that the hospital's strategy of innovation and flexibility would be imperiled by an SEIU-unionized workforce.

Martin Blair is a first-time entrepreneur who draws on his experience in the food service industry to develop two different restaurant concepts almost simultaneously. In relating his experiences, he reveals several important concerns of the thoughtful entrepreneur, ranging from securing financing to building out physical spaces. Both restaurants are successful, and Blair now wants to grow the business. In particular, he must decide whether to grow one or both of the concepts, and whether to use franchising as a growth strategy for either, or potentially both. He must consider the pros and cons of franchising, which apply differently to each of his restaurant brands.

Spreadsheet Supplement for Product #914521

The Indian aviation market, having experienced high growth rates that were expected to continue through 2016, was opened to foreign investment in 2012. Singapore Airlines is considering entering the market in a partnership with India's largest industrial group, the Tata Group. At the time of the case, there are five major players, none of which is dominant. Learning objectives: These include: 1) learning to gauge the attractiveness of an industry based on Porter's five forces analysis; 2) understanding how each of the five forces - supplier power, customer power, substitutes, new entrants and degree of competitive rivalry - affect industry profitability; 3) applying a STEEP analysis (social, technological, economic, environmental, political) to predict the future attractiveness of an industry.

Supplement to case IMD724. The C case takes a broader geographical view, while focusing on Singapore Airlines' strategic differentiation. The airline, while being widely considered as the standard bearer in terms of quality and customer service, has been able to achieve some of the lowest cost structures in the industry, surpassing even some LCCs. To meet this seeming paradox while minimizing trade-offs, Singapore Airlines draws the line between things that are valued by the customer, where procedural and cultural ingenuity are promoted, and things that have no effect on the traveler, where cost efficiency is sought. Learning objectives: To investigate how, why and where SIA manages its cost/service trade-offs. To identify the key internal characteristics that allow Singapore Airlines to consistently beat its rivals in terms of customer service and profitability.

The Vestige Capital case follows a search fund team comprised of two 2009 Stanford GSB alumni as they decide to raise a search fund in Mexico, procure search capital from U.S. and Mexican investors, and source deals over the ensuing two years. The case chronicles the difficulties the team faced during their search, including the departure of one partner from the firm and several near misses with acquisition. At the end of the case, the reader is left with a difficult decision: with very little search capital left, should the team recommence acquisition conversations with one previous target that they had previously walked away from, restructure their fund to acquire minority stakes in a handful of businesses, or shut down the fund in lieu of an attractive job opportunity with steady income.