Risk Management at Wellfleet Bank: Deciding about "Megadeals"

This case introduces risk management in the context of corporate lending, one of the bread-and-butter functions of commercial banks. It evokes the cultural tension between the risk function and the business line, which in this organization reverberated long after the decisive votes were cast at the group credit committee. The case further motivates debate on calculative cultures, and the role of model-based risk assessments in decision-making, and underlines the role of judgment in risk decisions. Modeling and judgment carry different weight in different types of risk decisions. While risk models can be relied upon as the key decision-makers in a retail banking environment (e.g. credit card applications), in the case of large credit decisions, their reliability is, generally, low. This is because the key features of the proposals at hand cannot all be condensed into risk metrics; as in these proposals, several "qualitative" issues arise that the decision-maker needs to judge in tandem with the quantitative metrics. The exercise also highlights that model-based risk metrics are themselves judgmental (they reflect the assumptions of the modeler) and that their use must be as much an art as a science. The story has got a temporal dimension: one proposal was current in mid-2006, the other in late 2008, two very different credit environments.

• Credit and loans
• International business
• Risk management
• Decision making