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Forecasting Demand for Food at Apollo Hospitals
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Established in 1983, Apollo Hospitals is one of India's largest hospital chains. In 2014, Apollo had 32 hospitals spread across the country. The focus of this case is of the Apollo Hospital at Bangalore. The quality head, Dr. Ananth Rao was worried about the food bill that accounted for 4% of the total cost and wanted to develop a forecasting model to estimate the demand for food and beverages being served to its patients for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Accurate forecasting will help them to minimize the wastage of food resulting in reduction of food bill. Apollo served approximately 120 food items from its kitchen. Dr Rao believed that the demand for food was dependent on the occupancy level (number of in-patients) of the hospital. Moreover, he also expected a short-term trend in the food requirement because patients are likely to order similar food during their course of stay in the hospital - this is because of dietary restrictions as also the fact that people would generally not wish to experiment with food in a hospital environment. The profile of the patients in the hospital is unlikely to vary significantly over a period of time and so it is expected that the food trend will not change much with time.