Predicting Your Competitor's Reaction

Understanding how competitors will respond to your actions should be a critical component of decision making. Few companies, however, incorporate such insights into their strategic decisions, in large part because most methods for obtaining them are complex and unreliable. The authors have drawn on their research and work with companies to develop an approach for predicting rivals' behavior that is both accurate and easy to apply. It involves considering just three questions: Will the competitor react at all? Few strategic planners consider the possibility that a rival may not respond to a company's competitive move. Yet 17% of the companies surveyed by the authors did not react to a rival's major initiative. Some competitors may not detect a company's move, while others may not feel threatened by it or may simply be unable to coordinate a timely response. What options will the competitor actively consider? Most companies seriously examine fewer than four response options, and it's likely that among them will be the most obvious, such as introducing a me-too product or matching a price change. To come up with a short list of options, companies will probably look at what they have done in similar situations. Which option will the competitor most likely choose? Your adversaries will choose the option that they consider to be most effective. It helps to know that in anticipating competitive behavior, most companies analyze only one round of moves and countermoves, and they evaluate their options using simple, short-term measures. The key is to get inside your rival's head and look at the situation from that perspective, not yours.

• Game theory
• Market research
• Strategy formulation