How Certainty Transforms Persuasion

Certainty profoundly shapes our behavior. The more certain we are of a belief--regardless of its objective correctness--the greater its influence will be on what we do. People who are certain of their opinions are more likely to buy, buy sooner, and spend more; more willing to recommend products; and more apt to resist challenges to their beliefs. Certainty is the catalyst that turns attitudes into action. Imagine that two customers flying Virgin America give the carrier the same high rating--a 9 out of 10--on a satisfaction survey. Most marketers, seeing that the customers are both highly satisfied, assume they'll behave similarly--that they're equally likely to fly Virgin America again, recommend it to friends, and so on. But their behavior depends less on their stated opinion than on how firmly they hold it. Suppose that one of the Virgin customers is a frequent flier and has had reliably good experiences. She is likely to be very certain of her favorable attitude and to remain a loyal customer. The other may have flown just once on the carrier. She's probably less certain of her opinion--wondering whether future experiences would be different--and therefore less likely than the frequent flier to choose Virgin again. They may hold the same view, but if one of them is more certain of that view than the other, she'll be the better customer. Despite the voluminous body of research on the influence of certainty on behavior, it is poorly understood in business and rarely measured or put to use.

• Power and influence
• Psychology and neuroscience
• Persuasion
• Customer feedback
• Consumer behavior