Mapping Frontier Economies

Global players in search of double-digit growth are running out of opportunities. Emerging-market giants such as Brazil, Russia, and China are experiencing an economic slowdown. They are increasingly expensive as a base for operations, and it's harder to export to and import from these countries than it used to be. As a result, multinationals are paying more attention to low-income, high-risk countries both as new markets for selling goods and services and as platforms from which to export them elsewhere. Even in industries where competition is skewed by government manipulation, foreign players that target the right sectors with the right strategies can prosper. The first step in identifying opportunities in a frontier economy is to assess the competitive environment of its industries along two dimensions: (1) the degree to which profitability is determined by competition between firms and not by government policies and actions and (2) whether the industry is focused primarily on domestic sales or on exports. Industries will fall into one of four categories. Each category is associated with a distinct strategy, ranging from the conventional (leverage existing capabilities, adapt to local tastes) to the unfamiliar (make yourself indispensable to powerful local players). In this article, the authors offer companies a framework to help figure out whether and where to play and how to win in the spaces in which they choose to compete.

• Multinational corporations
• Growth strategy
• Foreign investment
• Developing countries