Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains

This is an MIT Sloan Management Review article. Tremendous variability in orders along the supply chain can plague companies trying to eliminate excess inventory, forecast product demand, and simply make their supply chain more efficient. What causes the bullwhip effect that distorts information as it is transmitted up the chain? The authors identify four major causes: Demand forecast updating, order batching, price fluctuation, and rationing and shortage gaming. The authors suggest several ways in which companies can counteract the bullwhip effect. First, avoid multiple demand forecast updates. Companies can make demand data from downstream available upstream. Or they can bypass the downstream site by selling directly to the consumer. Also, they can improve operational efficiency to reduce highly variable demand and long resupply lead times. Second, break order batches. Companies can use electronic data interchange to reduce the cost of placing orders and place orders more frequently. And they can ship assortments of products in a truckload to counter high transportation costs or use third-party logistics companies to handle shipping. Third, stabilize prices. Manufacturers can reduce the frequency and level of wholesale price discounting to prevent customers from stockpiling. They can also use activity-based costing systems to recognize when companies are buying in bulk. Finally, eliminate gaming in shortage situations. In shortages, suppliers can allocate product based on past sales records rather than on orders, so customers don't exaggerate their orders. They can also eliminate their generous return policies, making it less likely for retailers to cancel orders.

• Operations strategy
• Supply chain management
• Operations research