個案資料

Globalization has created new opportunities and new threats. As sourcing from around the world has made supply chains longer and more complex, the volatility inherent in production has significantly increased. The average risk management process begins by creating basic awareness, and the use of heat maps (two-dimensional representations of scenarios and consequences) is widespread. However, many dimensions can be at play and the consequences of oversimplification can be devastating. Hazardous events can strike several firms simultaneously, and two forms of dependencies can be distinguished: 1) structural within industries and 2) events that hit groups of firms independently or all at the same time. This article traces the development of a useful heuristic in which a network model was progressively refined to depict interconnected activity in an industrial system over time. The authors show that it is not sufficient to look at individual profiles of disruptions, because they may come in “multi-packs.” Furthermore, backup suppliers do not necessarily mitigate single-source risk. Although a model is never the “answer” to a manager’s problem, even those with limited access to data will find that sources like iSuppli are affordable and adequate for analysis. Finally, managers should not look at businesses separately, but rather develop an enterprise-wide view of the total risk exposure.