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Beware the Limits of Linearity
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In a world awash in digital connectivity, disruptive innovations, political instability, cultural fragility, and continuous interactive feedback loops, linear thinking isn’t effective for building even moderately effective mid-range strategies. This article explains why linear logic has never been more dangerous in terms of related opportunity costs, and then offers tips on how to break the habit. Based on linear projection, we tend to conflate the immediate, inferable extensions of current conditions with the future. This is dangerous due to five fatal flaws in the linear model that can negatively impact the way most businesses think about their past, present, and — most importantly — their future: 1) Linear thinking leads to wrong assumptions. 2) Linear thinking assumes past is prologue. 3) Linear thinking marginalizes the concept of discontinuities. 4) Linear thinking imposes old patterns rather than discovering new ones. 5) Linear thinking minimizes the role of feedback in an increasingly interconnected world.