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Fantasy Hockey: Trade or Contend?
內容大綱
In December 2019, a member of a fantasy hockey league had to decide whether to trade away his top talent in exchange for draft picks in the following year’s fantasy draft or to continue to compete for a position in the playoffs. If he traded his top players, he would forfeit his chances at competing for a championship; however, this move might put his team in a better position for the following year’s fantasy hockey season. He had access to the league’s historical data to help determine the likelihood of his team making the playoffs. He wanted to conduct an analysis to make an informed decision grounded by numbers.
學習目標
This exercise can be effectively used in an undergraduate-level course on sports analytics. The content requires familiarity with modelling and analytics. This exercise provides students an opportunity to practice simulation in a sports environment using a small sample of historical results. After working through the exercise and assignment questions, students will be able to do the following:<ul><li>Decide on a specific functional form of uncertainty.</li><li>Create a distribution of potential outcomes and use these to guide a decision.</li><li>Use backtesting to test how well a model works.</li><li>