個案資料

At the very end of 2019, Jay Prakash Pal, divisional electrical engineer (Traction Distribution) for the Sealdah division of Eastern Railway in India, was asked to prepare a consolidated report for revising the contract demand with power distribution companies. Over the last six months, demand charge penalties had been imposed on multiple occasions for two power stations under his jurisdiction (Barasat traction sub-station and Sonarpur feeding post), as the monthly maximum demand had crossed the existing contract demand for these stations. He would have to provide a revised contract demand value to minimize the annual expenditure due to a demand charge penalty for the next year. While proposing the new contract demand, he would also have to ensure that the cost arising from the unutilized portion of the minimum guaranteed demand would be minimal.

This exercise can be used to discuss decision making through a Monte Carlo simulation model, in a postgraduate course on risk management and business analytics; forecasting models, in a postgraduate course on operations management; and capacity-planning models, in a postgraduate course on supply chain management and business analytics.<br><br>The exercise aims to identify the issues related to electrical energy procurement and the associated contract in railway transportation. Students are exposed to forecasting demand based on historical data and making important decisions through a Monte Carlo simulation model. Students also have the opportunity to explore associated risks in uncertain business conditions. <br><br>After working through the exercise and assignment questions, students will be able to do the following:<ul><li>Understand the basics of energy procurement and the two-part tariff system in the public sector in India. </li><li> Appreciate the steps involved in capacity planning. </li><li>Build a forecasting model based on the available historical data. </li><li>Perform risk analysis and devise optimal decisions through a Monte Carlo simulation model.</li></ul>

• Capacity Planning
• Forecasting
• Monte Carlo Simulation
• Risk Analysis
• Decision Making