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At the core of this case is a distribution, or sourcing, problem that can be modeled and solved using linear programming (LP). There are also issues of whether to build (a) new plant(s)--and if so, what the capacity should be--and whether to expand or close one or more of the existing plants. These latter issues can be analyzed using a 0/1 LP facility-location model. Alternatively, because the number of options is limited, they can be analyzed using the straight LP model of the distribution problem as a tool to facilitate analysis.

This reporting form accompanies the Sorensen Chevrolet (Harvard Case No. 9-175-258) and captures the student's assessments of the outcomes of the court case and the settlement reached (if any).

The manager of a large downtown hotel has to decide whether to accept 60 additional reservations or not. If she accepts, she will be overbooked and face certain costs if all the people holding reservations show up. The manager must forecast, based on historical data, how many of the people holding reservations will show up and then decide, after taking into account the cost involved, whether to take the additional bookings. The case can be used in a class on seasonality and exponential smoothing in time-series forecasting.

Galaxy Micro Systems is negotiating with a vendor about the cost of service support for the warranty on Galaxy's new workstation. The vendor has offered Galaxy a choice between a fixed-price, lump-sum contract or a deferred-payment scheme based on the number of units installed. Uncertainty in the sales forecast complicates the choice. All uncertainties are expressed in terms of discrete probabilities.

The president of a well-established manufacturer of mattresses has asked his assistant to recommend whether to consolidate plants of three different locations. He must decide not only which criteria are most useful in making such a decision, but also how to weigh the different criteria in coming up with a single decision.

This technical note considers how one makes choices in situations where there are multiple objectives and attributes that measure performance against these objectives. In some instances, given attributes may be important because they measure impacts of a choice on specific stakeholders. The note considers elimination of alternatives by aspects, dominance, and some decision rules that do not require compensatory tradeoffs (lexicographic, satisficing). Methods for "rate and weight" (linear additive scoring rules) are described and illustrated.

This note teaches the student how to account for seasonality in time-series data. All the necessary steps to (1) deseasonalize, (2) forecast with deseasonalized data, and then (3) re-seasonalize the forecast are illustrated with examples from the coal industry.

The president of a large and established manufacturer of laboratory equipment has to decide whether to invest $1 million for 30% equity in a start-up company in the field of lab robotics. The agreement would also allow his company the right to market the product. He already has a spreadsheet that projects the best guess of the future scenario and calculates several measures of performance (ROS, ROE, ROI, NPV, and IRR). He must decide which of the criteria are most useful. A relevant-cost issue that is introduced must be resolved, because it makes a big difference in the NPV. In the supplement, some background material is provided for a forecasting/judgmental assessment exercise based on this decision. The supplement could, assuming students have already been introduced to this topic, form the basis for a short workshop (an hour or less) on judgmental probability, or it could be used with a note on cumulative probability distributions for an introductory class on the topic. (The B case number is UVA-QA-0383, and a supplement to the A case is UVA-QA-0384.)

An analyst is about to make a presentation on the potential of Superior Industries International as an acquisition target. The issue for students is whether the synergies are enough to justify a 20% premium over the current price. A secondary objective of the case is to introduce the residual cash flow approach and to relate it to the weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) approach.

This case and its companion, "Myerson Industries" (UV0428), constitute the materials for a negotiating exercise. The excercise is a distributive-bargaining situation surrounding the negotiation of the price for the construction of a building (some minor opportunities exist for creating mutual value).

In this case, the managers of quality assurance must specify a fill-target for individual bottles of a new blood-pressure medicine. Higher targets lead to higher material costs but fewer seconds.

Thomas Stearns must decide whether to continue with planned software development and risk missing the completion deadline on a $20 million project or bite the bullet and make some costly hardware changes that will virtually eliminate the risk of missing the deadline. This introductory decision analysis case: (1) contains a compound (square-circle-square) decision, (2) encourages a discussion of the meaning of probability, and (3) requires the use of sensitivity analysis to handle the unspecified costs of missing the deadline.

This case and its companion, "Centralia Construction Corporation" (UV0345), constitute the materials for an excercise in role playing and negotiating. The exercise is a distributive-bargaining situation surrounding the negotiation of the price for the construction of a building (some minor opportunities exist for creating mutual value). Myerson is the purchaser of the building.

With the assistance of a temporary graduate student, the director of corporate research uses multiattribute decision analysis to find a plan with greatly improved projected performance (see UV0528). The methodology for eliciting probabilities, assessing trade-offs and risk preferences, and finding the most desirable plan is detailed. (A follow-up case, which takes place four years later, is UV0531.)

Four years after the A and B cases (UV0528 and UV0530), the annual plan has drifted greatly from that suggested by the analysis in the B case. How can the decision-analysis methodology be simplified to provide routine planning guidance?

Students are asked in each of the situations presented, which alternative is better, assuming that they would put whatever money they receive in a secure investment that returns 10% annually.

This case describes the coal-procurement process of a small electric utility. The manager of the production fuel department must decide how much coal to purchase from each vendor and how to allocate the purchased coal among the utility's three coal-burning plants. The situation can be modeled and solved as a linear program. Sensitivity analysis can be used to help formulate a strategy for negotiating with the vendors and to address other special issues.

You are Pat Divso, a senior purchasing agent of Compressor Corporation, Inc. (CCI). You have been given a major purchasing assignment to find a solution to the deadlocked price negotiations with Scandia Steel AB, a major supplier of specialty high-carbon and stainless steels, and a strategically critical partner. You are now en route from your Paris office to Sweden where you will meet tomorrow, August 29, 1995, with Kaj Johansson (pronounced Ki), marketing director of Scandia Steel at Scandia's headquarters in Uppsala.

This case provides the background for one participant in a contract negotiation regarding price, duration, and exclusivity.

George Lasiter sells special-events T-shirts, and must decide how many to order for an upcoming concert. He has high, medium, and low estimates of both concert attendance and the percentage of attendees who will want a shirt. In addition, he has assessed the relative likelihoods of each estimate. The case can be used to introduce or reinforce the fundamental issues surrounding decision-making under uncertainty.