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Broadway through Covid-19: Can the Show Go On?
內容大綱
In April 2020, amid the global pandemic resulting from the spread of Covid-19, the president of the Broadway League, which represented theatre owners, producers, presenters, and general managers for Broadway and across North America, faced a challenge. On March 12, 2020, Broadway had suspended all plays and musicals. The president and her team needed to determine when Broadway might be able to reopen, what the Broadway League should be communicating to producers and guests, and what the reopening of Broadway would look like amid the global coronavirus pandemic. However, to reach these decisions, she first needed to determine the reliability of the recently released New York State antibody study and estimate the true prevalence of antibodies in the population.
學習目標
This case is intended for use in advanced undergraduate- and graduate-level courses to exemplify the usage of Bayes’s theorem or as an introduction to sampling statistics. Students should be familiar with a binomial distribution. After working through the case and assignment questions, students will be able to do the following:<ul><li>Evaluate the risks and impacts of a business decision under different scenarios.</li><li>Identify how a major shutdown can affect businesses.</li><li>Understand the parameters of a binomial distribution.</li><li>Utilize Bayes’s theorem to quantify uncertainty in a proportion sampling problem, in an attempt to determine the impact of sample sizes.</li><li>Evaluate sampling methods to identify potential sampling errors and bias.</li><li>Decide on an appropriate prior distribution to represent epistemic uncertainty.</li></ul>