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Electoral Gold and Silver: Obama Versus Romney 2012
內容大綱
The 2012 U.S. presidential election between President Obama and Governor Romney gave both sides reasons for optimism. As such, it was popularly thought to be anyone's race to win. The election generated a wide range of polling at the state and national level. Despite the abundance of data, it still was not clear to many people whether the race was too close to call or whether one candidate had a decisive lead. On the evening of the election, two friends discuss why the result may or may not be a close one and decide to wager on the outcome.
學習目標
<ul><li>To understand the reasons behind the misinterpretation of data by the political pundit class and how it was possible to get it right.</li><li>To learn the benefit of numbers versus intuition and aggregation of distinct data sources by delving into a model's details to better understand its assumptions.</li></ul>