Managing uncertainty has always been part of the executive challenge. But the global pandemic upped the ante significantly: Rarely have leaders been forced to tackle volatility in so many areas all at once. The COVID-19 crisis has underscored just how interconnected people, markets and events have become. The authors-consultants at the Boston Consulting Group-argue that to gain uncertainty advantage, companies need to get better at three things: detecting signals, acting on them and building practices that foster resilience. In the end they show that by tracking signals, visualizing what the world might look like three or five years down the line and imagining what it will take to win in that future, organizations can take uncertainty from a scary abstraction to a practice that energizes their workforce and reshapes performance for years to come.
Amber Wright was an African American blogger, entrepreneur, and founder of Talk to Amber, a communications consulting, training, and coaching enterprise focused on inspiring people to communicate with confidence and clarity. The idea for Talk to Amber emerged in 2012 when Wright identified a need for communication coaching within the blogger community. Although her fellow bloggers were outstanding communicators in writing, they needed help organizing and presenting their thoughts to live audiences. Wright started working with bloggers and other writers to refine these skills. It was spring of 2019 and Wright reflected as she looked towards her second year as a full-time entrepreneur. Wright's first full year taught her that she had to be more specific in setting goals and priorities. Wright also needed to understand what she was trying to achieve with Talk to Amber, what the business was truly about, and how Talk to Amber added value. If Talk to Amber were to succeed, she had to pivot now from the survival mode of "starting up" to making intentional decisions about Talk to Amber's long term value proposition.
Bob Diamond was a serial entrepreneur with a track record of success in launching new products and new ventures. His latest venture, Xeleum Lighting LLC, founded in 2011, developed and commercialized advanced LED lighting systems. The firm engaged in a variety of approaches for generating revenues: manufacturer's representatives, energy service companies, and Xeleum's own internal sales and marketing processes. In its first eight years, Xeleum had grown its payroll to eighteen employees. The LED lighting industry was rapidly maturing - with global companies dominating the market, such as Samsung and Philips. Though Xeleum remained a relatively small player, it was confident that its products were equal to or better than those of its competitors; its prices were competitive or lower; and its responsiveness to its customers was unexcelled. However, its major competitors possessed far greater sales reach, which -- together with their brand power -- provided them with visibility and marketplace exposure commensurate with their size. In early 2019, Diamond was developing strategies for reviving and accelerating the growth of his firm, while also sustaining Xeleum's track record of superior customer responsiveness - which he viewed as a key source of competitive advantage. He wondered if he would need to rethink Xeleum's financial and business models in order to support his growth objectives. Diamond had been able to self-finance Xeleum's growth during the first eight years with the support of bank financing, but had not yet attempted to attract equity financing. Diamond wondered if that would be necessary or advisable in order to accelerate growth, and if so, how he should proceed. Finally, Diamond was considering whether Xeleum needed to revise its sales and marketing strategy in order to increase lead generation as a precursor to accelerating growth. If so, what should it be and how could Xeleum make it happen?
Nigel and Tammy Peck owned the Adventure Inn in Durango, Colorado. The process of acquiring the 25-room motel took several years and their combined life savings. After only 18 months of owning the property, Nigel's trusted friend and hotel broker, John Hazen, suggested that they had made such dramatic improvements through remodeling and rebranding the hotel that it was ready to sell. Nigel knew he would eventually sell the property, but he hadn't taken on the project with the intention to "flip" it so quickly. Nigel ruminated upon the variety of factors that would influence the future success of the Adventure Inn in order to make an informed decision about whether the timing was right to put the property up for sale. At the property level, nearly all of the physical improvements were complete, and they expected to see profits increase in the coming years as expenses leveled off and were projected to decline. At the destination level, Durango, Colorado was experiencing growth in visitation with a year over year increase in demand for the past four years and several new hotel properties were being added to the number of lodging facilities in town. Hazen was worried that the Adventure Inn would lose revenue and value as these new hotels entered the market and made the urgent suggestion for them to sell. Nigel and Tammy knew that while the new hotels could be considered competition, they might not necessarily target the same market segments. Additionally, the Durango Area Tourism Office (DATO) that promoted Durango as a destination to potential visitors had considered putting forth a public vote to triple lodger's tax which would also increase their marketing budget. At the industry level, Nigel's research revealed that lodging followed a ten-year cycle and that the industry was due for a period of financial decline. It didn't appear to Nigel that there was a clear answer after weighing the factors that were out of his control with his own abilities to navigate future
Dr. Arthur Pierre was responsible for developing a course schedule for the Business Analytics Department at Siena College. He needed to determine which professor would teach a particular class section in a particular time slot for the Spring 2020 semester. Pierre barely survived the last round of course scheduling due to the compressed delivery time from five weeks to three weeks in the previous cycle. This was one of his most sensitive and challenging responsibilities as he had to consider student demand, administrative requirements and faculty preferences in the process of developing a schedule. The importance of the decision and the stressful problems that he had encountered in adjusting to the new timeline necessitated a more systematic approach to scheduling since the shortened timeframe would be implemented for the foreseeable future. His ad hoc approach was too time consuming because he had to incorporate multiple factors into his course schedule and that often required reworking the entire schedule each time he encountered a conflict. In collaboration with a colleague, they identified a potential solution. They needed to prioritize constraints and build an integer linear optimization model.
In the autumn of 2018, Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) was facing a changing and challenging environment. Fintech start-ups were a continuous source of disruption for the past decade, but some of the world's largest technology firms such as Google and Apple were entering the financial space and disrupting banking by disintermediating banks from their customers. TD had to prioritize which services and customer segments to protect from the industry's on-going digital disruption and develop strategies to protect them. TD had to move quickly as the longer the delay, the more opportunity the disruptors had to entrench themselves and siphon away customers. Tim Hogarth, Vice-President of Innovation Framework and Strategies, was leading TD's Innovation Council which was tasked with identifying solutions to the bank's technology challenges. The case focuses on understanding how and why disruption occurs and what an incumbent can do to protect itself. It provides the basis for applying Christensen's insights on disruption, the Diamond-E, Ansoff matrix, and applying the criteria for the make-versus-buy decision, i.e. acquire, partner with or internally develop new technologies.
This case is based on an actual organizational crisis, and the day-to-day operational factors and latent conditions that led to it. Case facts focus on the role of Malcolm Thornton (pseudonym), a newly promoted manager of ride operations at an amusement park. From his first days on the job, Thornton's ignorance and dishonesty nurture a crisis that crescendos with the grotesque death of a 10-year-old boy, who was a passenger on a park ride. Thornton's culpability is obvious, but additional, substantial contributing factors are seeded throughout the case: faulty structure and equipment; lack of safety policies and procedures; absence of external oversight; brazen, hazardous choices made by the designer/co-owner of the deadly ride; and the dereliction of duty by corporate executives.
By all reasonable counts, the 2020 Tour de France 2 (Tour) probably should have been cancelled. The phenomenon could have become an extreme transmitter for the coronavirus (COVID). Had the grand tradition continued normally, it would have drawn millions of spectators, who would have gathered at venues throughout France, packed together for the best views of the field, within arm's reach of cycling celebrities who were accustomed to high-touch access, selfie embraces, and victory hugs. Many decisions and actions made during the Tour secured crisis aversion, and offer prime lessons for organizational crisis preparation and response, as described in this case.
IBM launched Rapid Supplier Connect, a blockchain-based solution to help battle medical supplies supply chain shortages due to the COVID-19 pandemic. At the April 31 launch, the company also announced that this solution would be offered at no cost, until August 31, 2020, to qualified buyers and suppliers in the United States and Canada. The solution provided healthcare procurement professionals with secure lists of vetted suppliers. Each supplier's available capacity, quality and regulatory compliance data were stored in the blockchain. An integrated supply chain solution provided details on order fulfillment status.
Semiconductors are the brains of modern electronics. They are used in medical devices, communications, computing, defense, transportation, energy, and technologies of the future such as artificial intelligence, data science, and advanced wireless networks. This case examines the global semiconductor industry and its structure. The case raises several important questions: Is Intel falling behind competitors in the race to make ever more powerful processors? Apple, Amazon, Facebook and other tech firms are designing their own chips - how will this impact the industry? Is the fabless model based on contract manufacturing superior to Intel's model of designing and making its own branded products? Will Chinese companies close the technology gap with firms like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel?
This case depicts the fascinating success story of Promamec, a family-owned business and an unexpected healthcare champion, amid unprecedented business environment changes, in Morocco's business capital, Casablanca. Known as one of the poorest Arab countries in the world, Morocco has become an emerging market that has attracted many foreign investors. Competition has intensified and financial resources have become more limited for Promamec. More specifically, the case draws attention to a crucial leadership transition between generations (2006) and a game-changing strategic decision (2018) to ensure future prosperity. This success story brings together several business disciplines including but not limited to strategy and entrepreneurship. Until 2018, Promamec's leadership created permanent value for more than three decades, growing organically at a double-digit rate in one of the most challenging business environments in the world. However, the son of the founder who remains the major shareholder must then make a very challenging decision: keep the business ("baby" of his father) in the family or sell it to private investors?
The Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) project represented a clear opportunity for China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to aid in the economic development of a rapidly rising East African economy. Like most BRI projects across the globe, the project focused on transportation and logistical infrastructure. As a component of the Maritime Silk Road, the SGR could potentially open Eastern and Central Africa to global trade and development, including opportunities for China's business-export expansion. However, with the completion of the railway's first two stages, SGR's operating deficit and heavy debt obligations threatened the project's expansion and success. Many now questioned whether the project would truly benefit Kenya
At the end of November 2020, Demetrio Santander and Juan David Gómez were finalizing the details for a pitch scheduled to take place in a few days. After three years of effort and dedication, the entrepreneurs had positioned Waykana as a fast-growing Ecuadorian company with a national and international presence. The company was selling bulk guayusa leaves (a tree located in the Ecuador rainforest) and branded products in more than 10 countries. To accelerate the firm's growth and social and environmental impact mission, the entrepreneurs believed that the time had come to secure additional growth capital and formalize the firm's expansion strategy. Waykana's business model had three sources of income. First, brand product sales in Ecuador-tea boxes and energy drinks-through the country's largest retailer. Second, brand product sales in the United States- tea boxes and loose-leaf-through Amazon and Shopify. And third, bulk guayusa sold to big international traders and extractors. Facing increased competition while deeply committed to Waykana's social mission, the entrepreneurs knew they had to prioritize their growth efforts. But which income stream should be given more attention-without overly weakening the others? Given Waykana's mission-driven interests, which one would generate a better social and environmental impact? Did they need to choose just one or could they secure enough funding to reinforce the three businesses simultaneously? Answering these questions would not only help the entrepreneurs to fine-tune their funding pitch, but also provide insight into the company´s next strategic moves.
The case study "Enemies with benefits: Daimler and BMW's mobility ecosystem" portrays how the German automotive giants Daimler AG and the BMW Group, strong competitors for decades, bundle different ventures and activities in the field of new mobility solutions to create a joint ecosystem called "YOUR NOW". The ecosystem entails a variety of different business models covering car sharing, ride-hailing, charging, parking, and mobility-as-a-service offerings. These different divisions (that Daimler and BMW often refer to as "verticals") oftentimes complement each other, but partly also compete with each other. This situation creates a unique potential to combine complementary resources and capabilities, but also causes tensions from competitive behaviors among the single ventures.
Madan Mohanka (MM) set up Tega Industries Ltd. in 1976 to manufacture abrasion-resistant rubber mill-lining products used in the mining and mineral-processing industries. This was a completely new technology for India; in fact, he had set up a plant for mill liners even before any takers for his products in the market existed. Tega first set foot in overseas markets in 1998 after it became free of the export restraint imposed on it by its mentor and stakeholder, Skega AB, a Swedish company. It received its first international order from Ghana and subsequently set up a sales subsidiary in the country. It then gradually opened sales and distribution offices in Australia, the USA, Mexico and Canada. The business was slow to develop in each of these countries, and sales picked up after a tenuous ride. In 2006, as part of its inorganic expansion strategy, Tega bought a small rubber-manufacturing company that sold mill liners in South Africa. Between 2006 and 2011, Tega's business grew at 40% compound annual growth rate. Buoyed by this growth, Tega made two back to back acquisitions in Australia and Chile in 2011. However, several managerial, legal and commercial problems crept up in its Chilean manufacturing facilities after the acquisition. These problems led to a severe financial downturn in Tega's fortunes in 2016, compelling it to either plan a revival or divest its interest in its Chilean plant.
Thorough analysis of various nonprofit business models requires an understanding of each firm's economic characteristics. The relations between various financial statement items provide evidence of many of these economic characteristics. This case presents the "common-size" condensed annual balance sheet, income, and cash flow statements for eight nonprofit firms in the U.S. for the 2018 or 2019 fiscal year (compiled from either audited financial statements or Form 990s).
Thorough analysis of various nonprofit business models requires an understanding of each firm's economic characteristics. The relations between various financial statement items provide evidence of many of these economic characteristics. Providing further practice beyond Nonprofit Business Models and Financial Statement Relationships (A), this case presents the "common-size" condensed annual balance sheet, income, and cash flow statements for eight nonprofit firms in the U.S. for the 2018 or 2019 fiscal year (compiled from either audited financial statements or Form 990s).
Kaleidofin was co-founded in 2017 by Puneet Gupta and Sucharita Mukherjee; former CFO and CEO of IFMR (Institute for Financial Management and Research) Holdings Pvt Ltd. As part of their roles at IFMR, Gupta and Mukherjee focused on designing products and developing technology to push for financial inclusion. In their field interactions, the co-founders had an epiphany of the challenges faced by people while trying to save towards important life goals. They saw an opportunity in the large segment of financially under-served people in India and quit their jobs to start Kaleidofin. Kaleidofin was conceptualised as a digital platform that offers customised financial solutions to help customers meet their life goals. The start-up partnered with mutual fund companies for solutions on one hand and network partners (NGOs, microfinance organizations, cooperative banks) on the other for access to their existing customers. Kaleidofin grew from 50 customers in January 2018 to 15,000 customers by March 2019. Aiming to grow to 1 million customers in the next 30 months Kaleidofin faces a dilemma about its future course. The start-up could continue to grow by expanding its current target segment which is the low-income households and preserve its vision at the risk of increasing costs. The second option would be to look at other potential target segments, such as, middle-income households and risk diluting their vision. The case study highlights the unique customer-centric model of Kaleidofin and the need for start-ups to understand the value proposition of their products/services.
In 2014, Walmart was at an inflection point. The world's largest company wasn't sure how to evolve and innovate to win over the next 30 years. In a leadership change that year, Doug McMillon rose to become Walmart's new CEO. Soon after, he hired Lori Flees, a Bain & Company partner, to lead Walmart's Corporate Strategy and drive innovation at scale. Flees led Walmart's acquisition of Jet.com for $3.3 billion and together with Jet founder Marc Lore stood up Walmart's internal incubation arm called Store No. 8. With an internal venture-capital style approach, Store No. 8 focuses on developing technologies that are at least 3 to 5 years out. All Store No. 8 companies operate as independent entities with CEOs, boards, and business metrics. Store No. 8, however, is not Walmart's only weapon to drive innovation at scale. Flees moves to lead the Next Generation Retail team structuring symbiotic partnerships with other powerful industry players through a variety of tools. Then she transitions again to bring "everyday low prices" to health care.