個案總覽

The global banking system is facing a severe liquidity crisis: In the first half of 2008, major financial institutions wrote off nearly $400 billion, causing banks around the world to initiate emergency measures. Similar crises have occurred within recent memory: Think of S&Ls, the dot-com bust, and Enron. Risk is, quite simply, a fact of corporate life-but because risk-management research has increasingly emphasized mathematical modeling, managers may find it incomprehensible and thus shy away from powerful tools and markets for creating value. Buehler, Freeman, and Hulme, all with McKinsey, describe the evolution of risk management since the 1970s, show how new markets have changed the landscape in both financial services and the energy sector, and explain what it takes to compete in the current environment. To demonstrate how significant a factor risk can be when incorporated into strategy and organization, they take the case of Goldman Sachs-which, despite its reliance on highly volatile trading revenues, has so far avoided the big write-offs that have afflicted its leading competitors. The authors believe that this is because Goldman takes the antithesis of the typical corporate approach-its culture embraces rather than avoids risk. And, they say, Goldman very efficiently employs all four of the following factors: quantitative professionals, strong oversight, partnership investment, and a clear statement of business principles, with emphasis on preserving the company's reputation. Staying on the sidelines of risk management may have shielded some companies from crisis, but it has also prevented them from growing as quickly as they might have. In their companion article, "Owning the Right Risks," the authors outline a process that will enable executives in any company to incorporate risk into their strategic decision making.

In the 1970s a revolution occurred in the field of corporate strategy. A boom in mergers and acquisitions launched new professions in M&A banking, M&A law, and strategy consulting, and companies started to focus on owning businesses in which they had a competitive advantage. At the same time, another revolution occurred in how financial services companies understood, bought, and sold risk-described in the authors' companion article in this issue, "The New Arsenal of Risk Management." Now these two revolutions are coming together to trigger a third in the corporate approach to risk management. Engineering and dynamically managing a company's risk portfolio has become the organizing principle for strategic choice. When companies focus on the risks for which they are naturally advantaged, they can typically support higher debt levels and save on operating costs. McKinsey's Buehler, Freeman, and Hulme describe five steps to help corporate managers adjust to the third revolution: 1) Identify and understand your major risks; 2) decide which risks are natural; 3) determine your capacity and appetite for risk; 4) embed risk in all decisions and processes, including investment, commercial, financial, and operational; and 5) align governance and organization around risk. TXU is one company that has already successfully adapted. Following the 2002 deregulation of wholesale and retail electricity markets in the U.S. state of Texas, TXU embarked on an ambitious risk-return restructuring program that relied on sophisticated risk-management tools to quantify its risk capacity. The program led to share price increases that created more than $32 billion in value before the company was taken private in the largest leveraged buyout in history.