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  • Water Crisis in India

    India had long suffered floods during the monsoons, droughts during the dry seasons, and periodic death causing famines during multi-year droughts. The old canal-based irrigation system developed by the British had crumbled from neglect and wealthier famers had turned to wells. Water shortages were compounded by the rapid population growth in India and water pollution. Dinesh Shindey had been asked by the prime minister to chair a task force to study the social, environmental, technical, and economic aspects of the proposed River Linking Project. It was a massive federal government project that required the construction of 34 new dams, 94 tunnels, and 12,500 kilometers of new canals. Proponents believed it would greatly increase the supply of water, but opponents believed it would never work as designed. Many simply believed that it was impossible to complete such a massive project in corruption plagued India. A former Secretary of the Ministry of Water Resources of India named S. Kannan believed that the solution to the water crisis in India lay instead in a decentralized approach based on conservation, the completion of numerous small, decentralized regional and local projects, and in managing the demand for water. After meeting with S. Kannan, Shindey's task force would write their recommendations in a report that would become a basis for how India would respond. This case presents a complex multicriteria decision problem that requires students to examine the relevant political, economic, cultural, environmental, and legal aspects as related to a wide-ranging mix of stakeholders. Students can assign probabilities and do a decision tree analysis before looking at the situation through the rational, incremental, and garbage can models of decision making. The case illustrates both how carefully humans need to manage natural resources in the face of rapidly growing demand and also how incredibly complex it is to manage such resources in a democratic system.
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  • Pinkley's Prospect

    A small oil and gas operator must make a decision about whether to drill in a particular location for oil. After significant geological research, the operator has narrowed the possible outcomes to four possible scenarios, one of which was a dry hole (no oil), and provided his best estimate of their respective likelihoods. Evaluating the prospect requires making long term estimates of both the rate of decline in oil production from the prospective formation and the likely price of crude oil over the coming two to three decades. The second of these was required since drilling expenses occur in the first year or two, but revenues from the wells was generated as oil was produced over decades. To help students frame the issue of future oil prices, the cases discussed issues related to the future global supply of, and demand for, oil.
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  • Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Oil, or Renewable: Which Type of Power Plant Should We Build?

    A utility company must replace an aging coal-fired power plant. Accordingly, management must develop an Integrated Resource Plan that carefully explores all reasonable options considering the varied interests of many stakeholders, including electricity users, regulators, environmentalists, and the community in which a new power plant will be built. State regulators require that the utility company minimize the costs to ratepayers, but costs are difficult to determine given the potential for high taxes on carbon emissions as well as volatile fuel costs during the multi-decade lifetime of the replacement. The analysis is further complicated by the differences in project risk associated with the different technologies. The senior vice-president must choose carefully, because he will be required to defend that choice to many varied and passionate stakeholders. A capital budget analysis should be conducted that takes into consideration the many uncertainties associated with this problem.
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