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La-Z-Boy
In September, 2005 an investment analyst had recommended to the investment committee of Optimal Funds (the Fund) to invest $10 million in La-Z-Boy, in addition to the $20 million that the Fund had already invested. The analyst believed La-Z-Boy represented strong value yet, having only been on the job less than one year, he knew that he needed to provide sound judgment and analysis to convince the investment committee and to maintain his credibility. After determining the entry price for La-Z-Boy shares, the analyst was requested by the committee to provide several additional pieces of information including valuation and entry-price determination; comments on the higher beta and lower price-to-earnings ratio as compared to its industry average; risks and appropriate mitigation efforts of devoting 12 per cent of the fund to a single company (La-Z-Boy); diversification efforts of the fund; and comments on the fund's overall investment strategy. The analyst knew several other analysts were providing their own investment recommendations to the investment committee and that he had only two days to develop and strengthen his case for investing in La-Z-Boy. -
Harley-Davidson Inc.
The founders of BarKar, an investment company, are considering whether to invest in Harley-Davidson Inc. BarKar is a value-oriented investment company in Vancouver, B.C., Canada that specializes in identifying and investing in companies trading at more than a one-third discount to their intrinsic value. In order to reach a decision, the founders have to look at the financials and carry out a strategic analysis to determine the intrinsic value of this stock. -
Harley-Davidson Inc.
The founders of BarKar, an investment company, are considering whether to invest in Harley-Davidson Inc. BarKar is a value-oriented investment company in Vancouver, B.C., Canada that specializes in identifying and investing in companies trading at more than a one-third discount to their intrinsic value. In order to reach a decision, the founders have to look at the financials and carry out a strategic analysis to determine the intrinsic value of this stock. -
Sanderson Farms
A new investment analyst with Alpha Value Fund was working on a presentation he was to make to the fund's investment committee, recommending an investment of $50 million in Sanderson Farms. Sanderson Farms was one of the leading poultry processors in the United States. Their stock had closed that day with a share price of $22.62 on the New York Stock Exchange. Eight months ago, the stock was trading at $48 per share. However, with the threat of an epidemic outbreak of avian flu and because of the losses incurred from hurricane Katrina, the share price plummeted. The investment analyst believed that the markets were over-reacting and, based on his analysis, Sanderson Farms presented a value candidate. He knew he had to be persuasive given the fund's preference for stable business and his relative lack of experience as an analyst. -
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.
The senior portfolio manager at National Securities Inc. (National) is concerned about the recent decline in shares of Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM), a Canadian gold producer with several years of precious metals mining experience that was considered one of the portfolio's strongest performers. The senior portfolio manager and his team recently spent time at one of AEM's mines and believed in the operational potential of the company. National's research department had prepared free cash flow forecasts for AEM, which the senior portfolio manager reviewed and modified, following their visit with the company. He knew that despite his team's belief in the future prospects of AEM, the stock may have become overvalued from a fundamental view point. The senior portfolio manager asked his team to perform a fundamental valuation of the equity of AEM. As normally, this meant the team would use the discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology, with financial assumptions that had been carefully examined. However, he knew that DCF valuation would likely undervalue resource companies, such as AEM, as the DCF valuation tended to overlook the flexibility provided at decision nodes during the life of the company with regards to extracting commodities from the ground. As a result, the senior portfolio manager reminded the team that the DCF method, when applied to a mining company, had to be expanded to explicitly include the value of the unmined metals. The underground unmined gold would need to be valued as a real option, using an adjusted Black-Scholes model. -
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.
The senior portfolio manager at National Securities Inc. (National) is concerned about the recent decline in shares of Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM), a Canadian gold producer with several years of precious metals mining experience that was considered one of the portfolio's strongest performers. The senior portfolio manager and his team recently spent time at one of AEM's mines and believed in the operational potential of the company. National's research department had prepared free cash flow forecasts for AEM, which the senior portfolio manager reviewed and modified, following their visit with the company. He knew that despite his team's belief in the future prospects of AEM, the stock may have become overvalued from a fundamental view point. The senior portfolio manager asked his team to perform a fundamental valuation of the equity of AEM. As normally, this meant the team would use the discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology, with financial assumptions that had been carefully examined. However, he knew that DCF valuation would likely undervalue resource companies, such as AEM, as the DCF valuation tended to overlook the flexibility provided at decision nodes during the life of the company with regards to extracting commodities from the ground. As a result, the senior portfolio manager reminded the team that the DCF method, when applied to a mining company, had to be expanded to explicitly include the value of the un-mined metals. The underground un-mined gold would need to be valued as a real option, using an adjusted Black-Scholes model. -
Mortgage Valuation: Fundamental Concepts of Mortgage Mathematics
Mortgages are one of the most complex products offered by financial institutions. This is because valuation of these instruments involves an understanding of certain relatively confusing financial concepts. These are: (a) The present value concept,(b) Term versus amortization,(c) Stated yield compounding frequency of payment, and (d) Mortgagee's required yield (otherwise called the opportunity cost of capital). This note discusses these concepts. -
Discounted Cash Flow-based Valuation Methodology as Tested by a Public Market Transaction
Trends emerging in recent years, such as divestitures, spin-offs and class action suits, make an understanding of valuation of companies with ongoing operations imperative, not only for investors, but also for managers and for a company's directors. The discounted cash flow method to valuation that is discussed in this note will be a guide, first, to business managers in their attempt to follow value maximizing strategies; second, to portfolio managers and security analysts in their effort to discover the true economic value of a company and its equity; and third, to investment bankers in their advisory role of companies involved in merger transactions and restructuring. This note will not demonstrate how to value companies in financial distress; in such cases, a contingent claims valuation will be more appropriate. The discounted cash flow valuation method is demonstrated through the valuation of a Canadian company using actual financial data. -
The Discounted Cash Flow-based Valuation Methodology as Tested by a Public Market Transaction
Trends emerging in recent years, such as divestitures, spin-offs and class action suits, make an understanding of valuation of companies with ongoing operations imperative, not only for investors, but also for managers and for a company's directors. The discounted cash flow method to valuation that is discussed in this note will be a guide, first, to business managers in their attempt to follow value maximizing strategies; second, to portfolio managers and security analysts in their effort to discover the true economic value of a company and its equity; and third, to investment bankers in their advisory role of companies involved in merger transactions and restructuring. This note will not demonstrate how to value companies in financial distress; in such cases, a contingent claims valuation will be more appropriate. The discounted cash flow valuation method is demonstrated through the valuation of a Canadian company using actual financial data. -
Mortgage Valuation: Fundamental Concepts of Mortgage Mathematics