個案總覽

Dealmakers tend to neglect uncertainty when making acquisition decisions, rushing into deals that eventually fail to deliver the anticipated synergies. Cause for this uncertainty neglect can be found in behavioral biases that cloud executive decision making. Acquirers should more often use minority stakes as a toehold to test full acquisitions and to guard themselves against the negative effects of uncertainty. An extended valuation toolkit that requires more managerial attention to uncertainty and behavioral pitfalls can help executives to better identify and value the benefits of minority stake strategies as an alternative to controlling acquisitions in uncertain situations.

Behavioral biases can result in suboptimal acquisition decisions-with the potential for errors exacerbated in consolidating industries, where consolidators design serial acquisition strategies and fight escalating takeover battles for platform companies that may determine their future competitive position. To guide objective managerial judgment, and to rationally anticipate the irrational behavior of rival bidders or financial markets, this article proposes a modified option-game toolkit for serial acquisition strategy. It brings together insights from both strategy and finance, which quantify acquisition strategies, thus allowing executives to make rational intuitive decisions under uncertainty.

To understand the recent trend toward privatization of infrastructure assets (e.g., airports), this article proposes a valuation methodology based on real options and game theory analysis that enables assessing when investors might overpay for infrastructure assets over standard discounted cash flow methods and when a premium is justified for their operating flexibility or strategic growth option value. While some infrastructure asset acquisitions may involve financial transactions whose value derives primarily from their expected cash flows, many of these infrastructure investments provide a platform and create the strategic context within which the firm can grow.