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This case is designed to present students with the challenges of formulating a discounted-cash-flow (DCF) analysis for a strategically important capital-investment decision. Analytically, the problem is representative of most corporate investment decisions, but it is particularly interesting because of the massive size of the American Centrifuge Project and the potential of the project to significantly affect the stock price. Students must determine the relevant cash flows, paying close attention to the treatment of input costs, selling prices, timing of investment outlays, depreciation, and inflation. An important input is the appropriate cost of uranium, which some students argue should be included at book value, while others argue that market value should be used. Although the primary objective of the case is to focus on the estimation of cash flows, students are provided with a straightforward set of inputs to estimate USEC's weighted average cost of capital. The case is designed for students who are learning, or need a refresher on, DCF analysis. Because of the basic issues covered, the case works well with undergraduate, MBA, and executive-education audiences. The case also affords the opportunity to explore a variety of issues related to capital-investment analysis, including relevant costs, incremental analysis, cost of capital, and sensitivity analysis. The case is an excellent example of the value of a firm as the value of assets in place plus the net present value of future growth opportunities.

This case asks the student to decide whether Aurora Textile Company can create value by upgrading its spinning machine to produce higher-quality yarn that sells for a higher margin. Cost information allows the student to produce cash-flow projections for both the existing spinning machine and the new machine. The cash flows have many different cost components, including depreciation, the number of days of cotton inventory, and the liability costs associated with returns from retailers. The cost of capital is specified in order to simplify the analysis. The analysis has added complexity, however, owing to the troubled financial condition of both the company and the U.S. textile industry, which is in decline as manufacturers migrate to Asia to benefit from lower manufacturing costs. This begs the question whether management should invest in a declining business or harvest the company by paying out all profits as a dividend to the owners. The case is suitable for students just beginning to learn finance principles, but is also rich enough to use with experienced students and executives. The primary learning points are as follows: • The basics of incremental-cash-flow analysis: identifying the cash flows relevant to a capital-investment decision • The construction of a side-by-side discounted-cash-flow analysis for a replacement decision • How to adapt the NPV decision rule to a troubled or dying industry • The effect of financial distress on the NPV calculation • The importance of sensitivity analysis to a capital-investment decision

Spreadsheet for case UV0741