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Signs of prosperity abound in the United States, fueling optimism that the economy has finally risen out of a long productivity slump. But Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, takes a skeptical look at current conditions in reviewing two books in the optimist's camp. In Prosperity, Wall Street Journal reporters Bob Davis and David Wessel argue that information technology is sparking a productivity breakthrough that will sustain prolonged prosperity. The authors foresee a powerful collaboration between industry and community colleges, working together to produce skilled workers. In The Productive Edge, MIT Professor Richard Lester pins his hopes on recent turnarounds in the U.S. industry in response to innovation, globalization, and deregulation--and concludes that these forces can drive an economywide productivity revival. Roach agrees that the books provide impressive anecdotes, but he points out that industry-based gains may stem from cost-shifting and rampant outsourcing. Long-lasting improvements in productivity, by contrast, would depend on boosting capital and educational endowments--and here the news is sobering. Despite the enormous corporate gamble on IT, the net stock of capital per worker has stayed constant because of frequent upgrading. "Human capital," as reflected in aptitude tests, also remains at low levels. Accordingly, Roach finds no hint in national data that productivity is emerging from its subpar trend. In fact, hours worked--a key factor in productivity calculations--may actually be rising. White-collar work, which depends more on mental acuity and creativity than on computers, just may not be capable of the sort of productivity advances seen on farms and in factories.

The U.S. economy has been on the upswing for more than four years. Inflation is low, corporate profits are up, and the stock market has risen beyond anyone's dreams. Such changes are the by-product of the wrenching restructuring undergone by corporate America over the past decade--changes that indicate an apparent leap in productivity. But the picture may not be so rosy, warns Stephen B. Roach, chief economist of Morgan Stanley. The boost in productivity in recent years has been achieved by cost cutting, in particular, downsizing. And cost cutting does not produce real long-term gains in productivity. Rather, it leads to onetime increases in efficiency, as the surviving members of a workforce generate more output. Roach calls for a new productivity agenda in the United States. Public and private investment in education and technological innovation are essential. But corporate America must also swallow its medicine by rebuilding capacity and hiring new workers. A continued fixation on downsizing will wipe out opportunities for growth.