Managing uncertainty has always been part of the executive challenge. But the global pandemic upped the ante significantly: Rarely have leaders been forced to tackle volatility in so many areas all at once. The COVID-19 crisis has underscored just how interconnected people, markets and events have become. The authors-consultants at the Boston Consulting Group-argue that to gain uncertainty advantage, companies need to get better at three things: detecting signals, acting on them and building practices that foster resilience. In the end they show that by tracking signals, visualizing what the world might look like three or five years down the line and imagining what it will take to win in that future, organizations can take uncertainty from a scary abstraction to a practice that energizes their workforce and reshapes performance for years to come.

Only a few weeks ago, Greg McNally, the CEO of software start-up DataClear, had called an off-site in Montana to celebrate his company's success in racking up $5 million in sales from its first product, ClearCloud--a powerful data analysis package. But that was before his talented and successful head of sales, Susan Moskowski, gave him the news about VisiDat, a British start-up that was testing a data analysis package of its own that was only weeks away from launch. "We need to agree on a strategy for dealing with this kind of competition," Susan had told Greg. "If they start out as a global player, and we stay hunkered down in the U.S., they'll kill us." Because of that news, Greg had changed the agenda of the off-site, instead having Susan present the options for taking DataClear global. The meeting had taken place two weeks ago, at which point the consensus had been to establish a European presence and probably one in Japan. The only question seemed to be whether to do it from scratch or to form partnerships with local players. Did DataClear really need to go global? Should it instead expand into different domestic markets? Should it do both at once? Could the company afford to? In R0106A and R0106Z, four commentators offer their advice in this fictional case study.

Only a few weeks ago, Greg McNally, the CEO of software start-up DataClear, had called an off-site in Montana to celebrate his company's success in racking up $5 million in sales from its first product, ClearCloud--a powerful data analysis package. But that was before his talented and successful head of sales, Susan Moskowski, gave him the news about VisiDat, a British start-up that was testing a data analysis package of its own that was only weeks away from launch. "We need to agree on a strategy for dealing with this kind of competition," Susan had told Greg. "If they start out as a global player, and we stay hunkered down in the U.S., they'll kill us." Because of that news, Greg had changed the agenda of the off-site, instead having Susan present the options for taking DataClear global. The meeting had taken place two weeks ago, at which point the consensus had been to establish a European presence and probably one in Japan. The only question seemed to be whether to do it from scratch or to form partnerships with local players. Did DataClear really need to go global? Should it instead expand into different domestic markets? Should it do both at once? Could the company afford to? In R0106A and R0106Z, four commentators offer their advice on this fictional case study.