This note introduces the concept of risk or merger arbitrage. Risk arbitrage is an investing method that attempts to capitalize on announced transactions pertaining to mergers, spin-offs, takeovers, liquidations, and corporate restructuring. The arbitrageur attempts to create riskless profit by simultaneous purchases and/or sales of assets that are part of an announced transaction. In the note, we outline the basics types of deals — including cash mergers, stock mergers, cash-stock deals and embedded options — and the methods to evaluate their profitability. The note also provides information on using Bloomberg’s mergers and acquisitions database and the Bloomberg M&A Analysis function to track pending transactions in the early and mid-2000s.
The Kimpton Hotels' area director of revenue management (director) for Washington, D.C. was excited about using Priceline.com to help fill rooms on some of Kimpton's low-demand weekends. He estimated the coming weeks' demand across three rate classes and across three lengths of stay (LOS), and he wanted to make sure he did not use Priceline.com too aggressively by releasing too many rooms onto the site.
In June 2008, the Kimpton Hotels' area director of revenue management (director) for Washington, D.C. finished creating a pricing strategy that would determine the optimal posted price for rooms in the Washington, D. C. hotel as well as the number of rooms that should be provided to Priceline.com. He realized there was even more potential to gain revenue by posting more than one price; however, this would add further complexity into the strategy and he was unsure of the potential impact of having multiple posted prices.
In June 2008, the Kimpton Hotels' area director of revenue management (director) for Washington, D.C. was trying to process the most recent customer information report from Priceline.com (Priceline). In an attempt to improve revenues during periods of low occupancy at the hotel, the director had recently been using Priceline's name your own price bidding format. While using this sales channel had limited success, the director was wondering the best way to maximize the revenue coming from Priceline without cannibalizing existing sales or tarnishing the Kimpton brand. His challenge was to create a pricing strategy that would determine the optimal posted price for rooms in the Washington, D. C. hotel as well as the number of rooms that should be provided to Priceline.
This supplement to OLGC Finds Its Match (A), product # 9B09E014, summarizes the results from a series of bets and provides the email response from the game provider following the discontinuation of this particular game.
The case illustrates a sports betting product offered by the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Commission. The particular game involved has odds that favour the bettor over the game provider under certain settings. The supplement B case, product 9B09E015, summarizes the results from a series of bets made and provides an email response from the game provider following the discontinuation of this particular game. The case provides an interesting introduction into probability or simulation and expected value calculations.
After the successful Apollo series NASA formulated a new vision for the space program, incorporating a space station and guaranteeing routine access to space via a reusable space shuttle. In 1986, the space shuttle design included two solid-rocket launchers which required the use of O-rings to seal the joints. After each launch the launchers were retrieved, inspected and possibly reused if they did not display evidence of O-ring distress. The space shuttle Challenger had flown 9 successful missions into space and was gearing up for its tenth with great fanfare due to NASA's successful public relations program, The Teacher in Space Program. The evening prior to the January 28, 1986 launch saw representatives from the Kennedy Space Centre, the Marshall Space Flight Centre and contractor Morton Thiokol participate in a 3-hour teleconference to discuss if the predicted low temperatures would have any effect on the expected performance of the O-rings. In addition to the statistical analysis of the historical O-ring failure, the stakeholders needed to communicate their results in the appropriate flow of information.
Schering Plough is a large pharmaceutical company with over 22,000 employees worldwide, and over $6.8 billion in sales worldwide. The company is considering two options to replace its flagship drug, Claritin (an antihistamine), as Claritin's patent is soon to expire. One drug is targeted toward nasal congestion, the other towards asthma; however, each drug is at a different stage in the development process, one has greater market potential but was still in its early development stage, the other drug could be launched within the year but would appeal to a much smaller market. The company must decide which drug to pursue or whether to focus on both drugs or neither. The case allows students to do a traditional NPV analysis and decision analysis and the use of simulation.
A business consultant at a large bank must determine if a report indicating that more than half the bank's credit card holders are unprofitable is true. This case contains a dataset that enables students to utilize some of the built in data functions in Excel and provides a basis for discussion of data-mining tools, products 7B04E017A and 7B04E017B.
This case presents some information on the NCAA college basketball tournament and suggests a method for estimating the outcomes of games. The probability of winning is modeled as a normal distribution where the mean is based on a team's ratings. Students will be introduced to the normal distribution, sums of normal random variables and event simulations.
Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group (DTAG) is considering offering a price guarantee to entice consumers to use their web site. Students will be introduced to break-even analysis and general spreadsheet modeling. This is an abridged version of Online Low Price Guarantees - Dollar.com, product # 9B04E016.
The issue before the directors meeting of LanCo Catalogue Sales was the high level of product returns that the company was experiencing. These product returns were eroding profitability at a remarkable rate, however the directors were split into two camps over what to do about the problem. One camp believed that speeding up shipments would reduce the returned merchandise, while the other camp believed that this would merely increase shipping costs and reduce profits even further. LanCo management was determined that the returns problem must first be understood, then actions must be taken to reduce returns, in order to improve the profitability of the company. (A Microsoft Excel data file is available for use with this case, product 7A99E007.)
CNS is a small biotech company. The founder of the company is deciding if it's worth applying for phase I approval that will allow the company to continue its research. He must determine the value of the research. Using the traditional DCF valuation method, he is not sure if this captures all of the value of the research and must decide if either the Black-Scholes or binomial model would more accurately determine the value.
Osteria De Medici is a high-end restaurant located in the downtown core of a large Canadian city. The establishment has loyal customers with very little walk-in traffic, so the management of reservations becomes key. On peak days such as New Year's Eve, Mother's Day and Valentine's Day, the restaurant would have vacant tables even though they were fully booked with advance reservations. Restaurant's management must determine if overbooking is an option, review the implications in overbooking and develop a model to determine a reservation schedule. An introduction to binomial distribution is provided.
Craggier National Park is a typical game reserve located in South Africa. The game reserve's management is trying to determine the optimal mix of animal species to stock a game reserve. Jointly they are trying to determine the mix of hunting packages to promote to potential clients.
An assistant manager of a university student residence is aware that there are capacity and service problems in the cafeteria. Long waits in line were common, and he hoped to propose some improvements to residence management, preferably ones with no major investments or disbursements involved.