Using the context of a private-bank chief economist preparing for a client call just as the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SCI) reached a 29-month high on July 7, 2020, this case places students in a position to prepare an outlook on the prospects for investment in China. It also enables the comparison of China to various potential investment geographies, such as the United States and other financial markets around the globe. The material covers the development of China's financial system from the 1980s to the 2020s, paying particular attention to the banking system, equity and debt markets, and the structure of household-level financial assets. Special emphasis is placed on the most recent boom-and-bust cycles of Chinese equities, helping students to understand the factors suggesting additional equity growth and retraction. The case applies Robert Shiller's standard analysis for speculative bubbles to China's equity market. China is the world's second-largest economy and equity market, but its stock market is still underdeveloped relative to other investment channels, as evidenced in the structure of China's aggregate financial assets and the composition of household wealth. Additionally, the government response and interventions play a large role. How would COVID-19 affect the investment opportunities in China, and how did China's markets compare to markets in the rest of the world? Most importantly, was this the time for American investors to invest in China? This case has been taught in a second-year MBA elective on China in the global economy, in a module examining progress and challenges in Chinese markets. It has also been successfully taught in a course on emerging markets, in a module examining global investments. The material allows for an examination of financial markets in China in particular, and stock market conditions in emerging markets more generally.

On March 11, 2020, The World Health Organization declared the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a global pandemic. The pandemic brought production, trade, and businesses to a grinding halt, as governments closed borders and implemented lockdowns and restrictions; it also caused scrutiny of global supply chain strategies. While some US companies had already begun shifting outsourcing away from China during the US-China trade war amid the recent trend of deglobalization, the pandemic deepened concerns about overreliance on importing strategic goods, including pharmaceutical products and personal protective equipment (PPE), from China. This case starts with the pandemic development, explores public health and economic responses to the pandemic in China and the United States, and examines changes in policy and public opinion toward outsourcing in China. It provides a basis for understanding China's social and economic institutions through the lens of pandemic controls and the changing landscape of China's supply chains. The case has been successfully taught in a second-year MBA elective on growth and business in emerging markets in a module examining country-level endowments, trade, and risks, as well as in a course on China in the global economy. It can also be used for EMBA or executive education classes on China in the context of global business, trade, and supply chains. Issues discussed include questions about Chinese institutions and social norms, the effects of the pandemic, fiscal and monetary policies on employment, inflation and GDP growth. The materials provide a framework for making decisions on global outsourcing and the changing relationship between China and the United States.

The US-China trade war in 2019 led to major shifts in global trade and supply chains, highlighting the recent trend in deglobalization. This case discusses the patterns of international trade and capital flows across the two countries, determinants of trade imbalances, and the role of national savings, policies, institutions, and exchange rates. The material allows for an examination of several factors, including the broader context of tech competition between China and the United States. The case raises a series of questions around the uncertainty the trade war created, the impact of tariffs on both economies, and diverging views from the two sides on who is winning. The case has been successfully taught in second-year MBA classes and executive training programs on global economies and markets.