Employees are faced each day with important decisions that they need to make, which force them to evaluate potential benefits and risks and act accordingly. Organizations depend on the successful decisions that business leaders make. Unfortunately, business students do not spend as much time as they should studying decision-making risk and how to evaluate it. Recent organizational failures, such as the collapse of Enron and Lehman Brothers, exhibit a fundamental lack of understanding.<br><br>Decision-making risk (DMR) is, quite simply, the risk associated with making a decision. With each decision, there are risk variables that interact with one another to create an overall risk profile. It is this interaction that is arguably under-observed in business schools. Furthermore, it is contended that a lack of focus on this interaction often leads to poor decision-making.<br><br>In this note, we use the Bear Stearns collapse and the Maple Leaf Foods listeria outbreak as timely examples of miscalculated decision-making risk. After examining these cases, it is quite clear that the associated risks in both were quite high. This raises a number of questions. Why didn’t the decision-makers at the time realize the risks that their organizations were facing? How can business leaders learn from these failures to ensure similar mistakes are not made in the future? In particular, this note was written to answer the question: Is there a comprehensive framework that can be used to assess decision-making risk?
Pinpoint Consulting, a multi-billion dollar strategy consulting firm, has been hired by Dart Financial Corporation to provide advice on the potential acquisition of a credit card portfolio. An analyst has the task of building a model and making recommendations. The price is set at $60 million and the analyst must assess whether the portfolio is an attractive opportunity and a suitable fit for Dart Financial.
Dexter Nelson recently accepted a summer analyst position at PPC Consulting (PPC) in Toronto, and was excited to take on the challenge in a high-performance organization. It had only been a few days since he had started his internship when the rest of Dexter Nelson's team left to conduct primary research at a client site. Left alone to work on his first real project, he began to feel overwhelmed. Having recognized the project as a new product launch, Nelson wanted to identify key elements to address in the financial model. He also wanted to identify a series of actions to make a significant contribution not only to the client, but his team. He began to approach his task by identifying his problem and decision to be made, using an importance-urgency matrix and developing and analyzing appropriate alternatives.