This note provides a description of international flows and positions data, a way to identify extreme capital flow episodes (such as surges and stops), and a straightforward technique to predict whether a country should receive more or fewer portfolio inflows in the coming year based on a notion of benchmark inflows.

When we introduce macroeconomic models, we assume that goods and services are exchanged within a single country but not across countries. This assumption is useful for understanding some of the primary determinants of output, inflation, and interest rates. In reality, however, economies trade with each other, and the presence of international markets has implications for national economies. In this note, we incorporate international markets to understand how changes in one country can affect other countries.

This note presents a short description of balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) data. It works through examples using data for the United States and Mexico while providing guidance for understanding the data of just about any country.

This note provides context regarding financial inclusion in the Philippines. It discusses the nature of poverty in the country; provides details on the financial system, especially the financial organizations that serve the poor; and presents some initiatives to broaden access to finance.

A fundamental policy decision every government must make is whether, and to what extent, to manage the exchange rate. This note discusses some of the basic costs and benefits of fixed and floating exchange rates.

Built into a pension fund's calculations was a 7% expected return, but in this world of debt, deficits, and quantitative easing (and negative interest rates!), could such a return be counted on? Or was it necessary to reduce the fund's expected returns assumptions? And whether or not assumptions on expected returns were changed, should the fund's global asset allocation be altered? This case provides an opportunity for students to form, in the context of an analysis of the global macroeconomic environment, five-year expected returns for major asset classes.

Balance of payments (BOP) accounting conventions, never straightforward, have been complicated recently by the introduction of new standards. This note presents a short description of BOP and international investment position (IIP) data. It refers to data for the United States, Brazil, and South Africa, but given that there are worldwide standards for countries that report BOP and IIP, it should provide guidance for understanding the data of just about any country. It is meant to be a resource that students can refer to time and time again as they gain a deeper understanding of BOP data.

In late December 2010, most emerging markets were struggling to contain the appreciation of their currencies, so perhaps currency crises were not likely in the foreseeable future. But conditions could change quickly. This case reviews different varieties of currency crises and two in particular: United Kingdom in 1992 and Hong Kong in 1998. These were two very different types of crises, and understanding them could serve the protagonist well when future crises occurred.

To decide whether to initiate a position in gold, the protagonist must assess its features as a strategic component in any portfolio as well as whether the time is right for an opportunistic tactical allocation. Factors that must be considered include how supply and demand for gold will be affected by the paths of real interest rates, inflation expectations, the euro zone debt crisis (and other financial stresses), and the international value of the U.S. dollar, among other factors.

The protagonist's task today, as oil prices approached $125/barrel, was to decide whether her pension fund should allocate some funds to oil, and if so, how much? At this point-February 2012-there were many reasons to think about adding oil to her fund. To decide whether to initiate a position in oil, the protagonist must assess its features as a strategic component in any portfolio as well as whether the time is right for an opportunistic tactical allocation. Factors that must be considered include how supply and demand for oil will be affected by global economic policy, geopolitical concerns, and rising demand from emerging markets, among other factors.

A hedge-fund strategist had two decisions to make. First, what was the path of core euro zone long-term interest rates likely to be over the next year? Was the dramatic decline in German long rates over the past two years an aberration that would soon be reversed, or was it part of the "new normal" that would persist for some time? Second, how would periphery long rates evolve relative to core rates? That is-the spread between long rates in the likes of Greece, Spain, and Ireland and those in Germany-how would they evolve over the next year? Was the dramatic divergence in euro zone long rates likely to persist, or would the coming year see a reconvergence? He knew many factors influenced long-term interest rates; he would have to use his entire toolkit to address this issue. The evidence was in no way clear-cut. Some factors pointed toward lower German rates, some toward higher, some toward a widening of euro zone spreads (even a dissolution of the euro zone as we know it?), and some toward reconvergence. To form an opinion on the likely paths of euro zone long rates, he would have to sort through mounds of information.

The protagonist was sifting through the evidence on the predictive content of the yield curve. Did the current steepness of the yield curve mean that a double-dip recession was highly unlikely? And when the yield inverted in the future, as it surely would at some point, would that be a precursor to a recession? From time to time, the market focused on the slope of the yield curve. What can it tell us?

What accounts for the dollar's late-2008 surge against the euro after a multiyear decline? In this case, students consider whether the late-2008 dollar appreciation was an aberration, and what may have caused it. Would this trend reverse, or would global currency market trends continue to propel the dollar? Suitable for both core and elective MBA courses in global financial markets, this case explores factors pointing to further euro appreciation and to others favoring the dollar. Sorting through mounds of evidence is necessary before forecasting the exchange rate's likely path. Filtering that evidence requires both relatively standard thinking about FX markets and an analysis of past and prospective international capital flows.

At what point in a recession should the Fed institute an arguably risky expansionary monetary policy-namely, aggressive Fed purchasing of long-term Treasury bonds? Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke faced this question in 2009. Suitable for both core and elective MBA courses in global financial markets, this case examines the risks associated with a policy so perilously close to monetizing the budget deficit. Students consider the factors behind the current and prospective levels of U.S. long-term interest rates from Bernanke's perspective. Already, the Federal Open Market Committee had lowered the federal funds rate from 5.25% in 2007 to roughly 0%; it had also begun an almost unfathomable effort to free up frozen credit markets and easing credit to loosen monetary conditions even further.

In mid-February 2009, amid the global financial crisis, the news was grim. The U.S. economy had been in recession since December 2007. If the downturn lasted into early spring, it would become America's longest postwar recession. The economy had shed 3.5 million jobs over the previous 12 months, the worst 12-month period on record. Bank lending was plummeting; the few banks with funds available were holding onto them. With this massive shift into liquid assets (cash and cash equivalents) and away from lending of any sort (even for productive uses or, in many cases, the working capital firms needed to survive), the economy would likely grind to a halt. On this brisk mid-February day in Washington, Timothy Geithner and Ben Bernanke rolled up their sleeves and reevaluated their plans to address the nearly impossible task of righting the ship. In terms of monetary and fiscal policy, were they doing all they could to halt this epic slide? Were they doing too much?

In April 2009, Rashonda Williams, responsible for global asset allocation at a large pension fund, had to decide whether the increase the allocation to foreign securities. A primary factor influencing her decision was her view on the likely path of the U.S. dollar over the next 5 to 10 years. Were we on the verge of a massive repatriation of U.S. investors' foreign portfolios? Would foreign central banks begin to diversify away from dollars? Was the dollar (and other major currencies) so undervalued that the Group of Seven (G7) might contemplate coordinated currency intervention? Williams's assessment of these issues would be a large factor in her overall assessment: Should she recommend to the board that it increase the allocation to foreign securities, or should it take this opportunity to repatriate profits and increase the weight on U.S. securities?

The nine months leading up to April 2009 were among the most difficult and uncertain in U.S. economic history. A series of destabilizing events had led to substantial uncertainty and panic throughout the economy: Three of the five largest U.S. investment banks had failed, the stock market had fallen by 40%, the Fed had doubled its balance sheet, and the federal budget deficit had expanded to well over $1 trillion. Moreover, the crisis had spread from the United States to the world's leading economies and seemed to signal the beginning of an extraordinary rebalancing of the world economy. This case explores the challenge facing the U.S. economy in spring 2009, the global economic forces and trends affecting the economy, and the likely course of key macroeconomic variables: real and nominal interest rates, exchange rates, GDP growth, inflation and budget deficits.

The person responsible for global allocation for a large pension fund had been asked by the board of directors in April 2008 for an assessment on whether she thinks the dollar would appreciate or depreciate over the next five to ten years. She has heard mostly negative views about path of the dollar over the long term, and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's suggestion that the Gulf States, and others, should de-link from the U.S. dollar as a way to contain inflationary pressures. Currently, the fund is 60% in dollar-based assets and 40% in foreign markets. The dollar's sharp decline against a broad array of currencies, central banks diversifying reserves away from dollars, and some OPEC members invoicing oil-sales currencies in other than dollars are discouraging news. She considers whether to increase the foreign weighting and, because the dollar has overshot its "long-term value," whether it is now more likely to appreciate than depreciate, and finally whether the fund should use the recent dollar pessimism as an opportunity to take profits on its foreign positions and increase the weighting on the now relatively cheap U.S. securities.