Until 2008 going global seemed to make sense for just about every company in the world. Since then, we've entered a different phase, one of "guarded globalization." Governments of developing nations have become wary of opening more industries to multinational companies. They are defining national security more broadly and perceiving more and more sectors to be of strategic importance, taking active steps to deter foreign companies from entering them and promoting domestic, often state-owned enterprises. Indeed, the rise of state capitalism in some of the world's most important emerging markets has altered the playing field. To factor globalization's new risks into strategy, executives must consider their industry's strategic importance to the host government and their home government. They can then choose among various approaches: strike alliances with local players, look for new ways to add value abroad, enter multiple sectors, or stay home.

The CEO of a watchband manufacturer based in Seoul is considering opening a factory in the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC), a South Korean manufacturing zone in North Korea. Such an operation is appealing on several counts: The costs of labor are low, capital risk is also low because of South Korean government guarantees, and the KIC, as the largest area of economic cooperation between the two Koreas, could be a step toward a unified peninsula. But there are substantial risks as well, concerning South Korean employees' safety, the treatment of North Korean workers by their government, the human rights situation generally in the North, and the uncertainties of dealing with a volatile regime. Are the potential economic benefits worth the human risks? And should politics and national pride factor into the decision? Two commentaries accompany the case, one from Youssef Nasr, a former senior executive in the HSBC Group, and one from Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group.

The CEO of a watchband manufacturer based in Seoul is considering opening a factory in the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC), a South Korean manufacturing zone in North Korea. Such an operation is appealing on several counts: The costs of labor are low, capital risk is also low because of South Korean government guarantees, and the KIC, as the largest area of economic cooperation between the two Koreas, could be a step toward a unified peninsula. But there are substantial risks as well, concerning South Korean employees' safety, the treatment of North Korean workers by their government, the human rights situation generally in the North, and the uncertainties of dealing with a volatile regime. Are the potential economic benefits worth the human risks? And should politics and national pride factor into the decision? Two commentaries are attached to the case in R1010P and included in R1010Z, one from Youssef Nasr, a former senior executive in the HSBC Group, and one from Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group.

Our annual survey of ideas and trends that will make an impact on business: Elizabeth Warren and Amelia Tyagi believe consumer credit should be made as safe as any other product. Paul Collier and Jean-Louis Warnholz reveal an increasingly investment-friendly climate in sub-Saharan Africa. Amy J.C. Cuddy asserts that warmth and competence are not mutually exclusive. John Sviokla predicts a surge of peer-to-peer lending in the wake of the financial crisis. Noah J. Goldstein explains the impact of social pressure on customers' behavior. Raymond Fisman urges the creation of a global forensic economics lab modeled on Interpol. Paul Saffo warns of a brain drain out of the U.S. Gurdeep Singh Pall and Rita Gunther McGrath contemplate the ramifications of immortalizing business meetings in searchable, high-quality digital video. Janine M. Benyus and Gunter A.M. Pauli illustrate the advantages of innovation copied from nature. Michael I. Norton observes that an investment of effort can lead to unduly glorifying its results. Peter Schwartz dispels the illusion that global temperatures are actually falling. Nicholas A. Christakis shows that personal influence wanes beyond three degrees of separation. Marcelo Suarez-Orozco sees the migrant millions as untapped brand emissaries to their relatives back home. Ian Bremmer and Juan Pujadas chart the growing influence of state capitalism in four industry sectors. Steve Jurvetson shares a fun way to stimulate the growth of new brain cells. Lew McCreary spotlights the interior designs of two adventurous architects who aim to counteract the degenerative effects of physical comfort. Tom Ilube explains the semantic web - a quiet revolution in technology that will radically change the internet. Alex Pentland weighs the benefits of combining two distinct kinds of social networking. Thomas H. Davenport and Bala Iyer look at the offshore outsourcing of decision making. R. Stanley Williams envisions a central nervous system for the earth.

As global inflation increases, maintaining food and fuel subsidies will be difficult for developing nations. However, because discontinuing subsidies can ignite popular protests, nations must proceed cautiously as they remove those subsidies to protect both their own interests and those of the foreign companies that invest in them.

Global companies that create and institutionalize a systematic framework for assessing risk will be the ones best positioned to capitalize on China's enormous promise.

With emerging markets like China and politically unstable countries like Saudi Arabia figuring more than ever into companies' investment calculations, business leaders are turning to political risk analysis to measure the impact of politics on potential markets, minimize risks, and make the most of global opportunities. But political risk is more subjective than its economic counterpart. It is influenced by the passage of laws, the foibles of government leaders, and the rise of popular movements. So corporate leaders must grapple not just with broad, easily observable trends but also with nuances of society and even quirks of personality. And those hard-to-quantify factors must constantly be pieced together into an ongoing narrative within historical and regional contexts. As goods, services, information, ideas, and people cross borders today with unprecedented velocity, corporations debating operational or infrastructural investments abroad increasingly need objective, rigorous assessments. One tool for measuring and presenting stability data, for example, incorporates 20 composite indicators of risk in emerging markets and scores risk variables according to both their structural and their temporal components. The indicators are then organized into four equally weighted subcategories whose ratings are aggregated into a single stability score. Companies can buy political risk analyses from consultants or develop them in-house.